ESPN released its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2025 football season, and it did not paint an optimistic picture for Cal.
It suggests Cal has virtually no chance to win the ACC title and absolutely no chance to win the 2025 national championships. But the FPI is not infallible as we will see later when we look at last year’s preseason FPI.
The FPI computes four major inputs to come up with numbers for a national ranking, a projected won-loss record and chances of winning the conference and reaching the College Football Playoff. Those four inputs include data on the last four seasons (with an emphasis on the 2024 season), number of returning starters (with greater emphasis on the quarterback position, data on the returning coach, and quality of the recruiting class.
Cal’s 2025 preseason FPI ranking is No. 60 overall and 13th in the ACC. It projects a regular-season won-loss record for Cal of 6.5 wins and 5.6 losses (which adds up to 12.1 games for detail-oriented folks), and calculates that Cal has a 68.9% chance of winning six games or more games. That would make bowl-eligible.
However, the FPI projects that Cal has less than a 1% chance to win the ACC title – an 0.7% chance to be exact – and just a 2.1% chance to get a berth in the College Football Playoff. It calculates that the Golden Bears have a 0.0% chance of winning the national championship, which goes against the theory that anything is possible in sports.
Predicting Cal’s 2025 season is difficult because the Bears will have new starters at quarterback, running back, tight end and all the defensive back positions as well as an entirely new offensive coaching staff.
Cal’s No. 60 ranking is 17 spots lower than the Bears’ 2024 preseason FPI ranking of No. 43. But the projected regular-season win total of 6.5 victories was spot on as Cal went 6-6 during the regular season before losing its bowl game. The 6.5 victories projection is virtually identical for the 2025 prediction for the Bears.
However, the 2024 FPI was not as accurate for some other schools, most notably Arizona State. The Sun Devils were given just an 0.6% chance to win its conference title last year and an 0.8% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Arizona State won the Big 12 title and had the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Florida State was the highest rated ACC team in the 2024 preseason FPI projections (11th overall), and the Seminoles finished last in the 17-team ACC with a 1-7 conference record and 2-10 overall.
On the other hand, the top four teams in the 2024 preseason FPI all reached the College Football Playoff as did six of the top seven. Alabama was the only one of the top seven that did not make the postseason field and Tide fans thought that was an injustice.
The FPI becomes more accurate as games are played, but the preseason FPI sets expectations.
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