The offseason is a fun time to play fantasy baseball. We each have an idea about how to “fix” a Phillies team that seems to be getting further away from the ultimate prize in the game, moving back a step each year since they made the playoffs in 2022. The team has been open about their desire to shake things up and rework the calculus of putting together a championship caliber roster.
There is, though, a right and wrong way to think about the offseason. Even though each owner in the game is putting a ton of money into their own coffers, each team has a budget that they are beholden to. Some team’s budgets are ones we can classify as “astronomical” (Dodgers, Yankees) while others give the same cringe worthy expression of Oliver Twist clamoring for more (A’s, Rays). We don’t know where the Phillies fit on that spectrum of budgeting prowess, but with new investors added to the ownership group, one has to assume that the money is there for them to spend.
With that in mind, what might a solid offseason look like? Assuming that Juan Soto is bound for one of the New York teams, an assumption even John Middleton is making, where else can the Phillies look to try and make their team better than the one that meekly bowed out to the Mets? Here are a few moves I’d like to see the Phillies make that, put together, would leave them more talented, if a bit short in the minor league system.
*I’m not putting contract specifics on free agent signings, nor will I guess at what a complete trade package would look like
Re-sign Jeff Hoffman
This one should be fairly straightforward. The team needs a high leverage reliever; Hoffman likes Philadelphia and wants to be a high leverage reliever. There have been some reports of teams looking at him as a possibility to return to the rotation, but the Phillies would not be signing him to do such nonsense. He’d be here solely to lock down the late innings.
The quandary for Hoffman will be the length of a contract. How long should the Phillies feel comfortable with giving Hoffman as a free agent?
The easiest comp to make with Hoffman is Robert Stephenson: a right handed reliever that is coming off a highly successful season and is looking for a long term deal. Stephenson ended up securing a three year deal from the Angels with a club option for a fourth year. That’s likely going to be the floor with Hoffman. Any team trying to belly up to the negotiating table is going to have to start with three years. Knowing that the deal may not age well, this is probably something the team should feel comfortable with if they’re serious about acquiring a high leverage arm for the end of games. Other pitchers that are available now like Tanner Scott will probably want a fourth year guaranteed, but with Hoffman, three years will likely do the trick. He knows the team, the team knows him. This should be an easy call.
Trade for Garrett Crochet
The White Sox and Phillies were talking to each other during the trade deadline days about Crochet, or at least we’re led to believe. Maybe they were talking, they were just….talking. Either way, the left handed starter is on the block and the Phillies should be interested.
The issue is going to be compensation.
It’s been reported that the White Sox are looking for position player prospects in any deal involving Crochet. Makes sense since their system could use a few of those. This means that any deal the Phillies are even serious about discussing for the left hander has to begin with Aidan Miller. There are those that would rather push someone like Starlyn Caba or Eduardo Tait as the ones to lead a package, either separately or together, but in reality, the most attractive prospect the team has from the offensive side right now is Miller.
It’s something the team should do.
There has been talk about the team’s desire to move on from Alec Bohm and if they’re high enough on Miller, maybe that’s the move they are going to make first. Maybe even include Bohm in a deal for Crochet if it meant keeping Miller in the fold! That would truly be something.
The more likely idea, if the team is serious about landing the top pitcher currently on the trade market, involves them swallowing hard and including Miller in a trade package.
That wouldn’t be it, of course. It wouldn’t be surprising is the White Sox insisted on the team adding one of the aforementioned bats like Caba or Tait to any deal since Crochet is just entering his prime and has oodles of team control left. Even still, the team should be interested in making that deal. As good as that duo of young hitting prospects are, they’re still far away in both their development towards a complete product on the field and in their estimated arrival time in the major leagues. A lot can go wrong.
While adding to the rotation might seem foolhardy since it remains the strength of the team, slotting Crochet in a proposed rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and whoever wins the fifth starter’s spot instantly makes the rotation the best version on paper in baseball.
Of course, as the Wheeler start in the NLDS proved, if you can’t hit, all the pitching in the world doesn’t really matter. So to that end, how about the Phillies….
Trade for Byron Buxton
Let me start by saying: yes. I am aware of the injuries.
He’s been a perfect advertisement for the term “walking wounded”. Using Baseball Prospectus’ amazing injury ledger we can see that the past four years have not been kind to the Minnesota center fielder.
- 2021: 43 days missed to hip inflammation, 61 days missed to a broken hand
- 2022: 44 days missed to a hip strain
- 2023: 12 days missed to a rib contusion, 61 days missed to a hamstring strain
- 2024: 16 days missed to knee inflammation, 30 missed to hip inflammation
By now, an insurance company would probably drop him or raise his premium, but in baseball, you get a guaranteed contract. He’s one of the more injury prone players in the game…
…and one of the most talented.
During those same four seasons, when on the field, Buxton has shown the talent that made him the second overall draft pick in 2012 and got him a long term extension with the Twins in the first place.
- 2021: 254 plate appearances, 171 wRC+
- 2022: 382 plate appearances, 135 wRC+
- 2023: 347 plate appearances, 97 wRC+
- 2024: 388 plate appearances, 148 wRC+
This on top of defense in center field that is consistently among the top players at the position.
Trading for Buxton would be trading for the near certainty that he will miss time, perhaps even significant time. Yet there may not be an available option in center field that possesses his upside. Putting him with a training staff like the one the Phillies have and there would be some hope that they’d have a program created that would give him the requisite time off to make sure he’s at his best while also being able to properly and carefully rehab any injury that might end up occurring.
There is also another item that might help the team be more likely to acquire him. For the second straight season, the Twins are possibly looking to either hold on their payroll or even lower it further. They’ve been victims of the Diamond Sports case that hindered their ability to budget properly based on money they’d be getting for broadcast rights. Buxton’s extension was for seven years and $100 million, so the cost is far from exorbitant, but including him in a deal might be a way for Minnesota to cut down payroll costs without significantly impacting the team. After all, in 2024, they were without Buxton for long stretches of time and still won the division. The price of taking Buxton off of the Twins’ books might mean the package going back to Minnesota out of the Phillies’ farm system might not be as bad. Were the Phillies to take on the entirety of the remaining money, they could point to that and demand the compensation not be what it may have been years ago.
Trading for Byron Buxton is risky. He’s not going to play a full season and might even miss most of it. Trading for him would be putting an awful amount of faith in the training staff to keep him on the field.
Trading for him would also give the team a player whose potential is unlike anything they have in their minor league system right now. Hitting on a Buxton trade would make the offense scary good.
Sign Teoscar Hernandez
However, there is still the matter of left field. This is where they need to improve, arguably the top priority of the team this offseason. It’s a spot where they need to get better without that many free agent players available that would truly make a difference for the team.
Signing Teoscar Hernandez solves this spot.
Now, the team has been vocal about the need to change approaches at the plate. Less chase will again be the mantra of the team once the 2025 season begins, but they also need power. While they were seventh in the game with 198 home runs and fifth .425 slugging percentage, there was a block of games there where the offense just did nothing. We know that they are a collection of streaky hitters, but even if they’re humming along, left field was always a spot where a touch more power can be squeezed out.
Hernandez would provide that power the team can use, especially from the right side, but there are a few red flags surrounding his game. His walk rate of 8.1% for 2024 was the highest percentage he’s had since 2019. His 29.2% O-swing percentage fell right where his career has been, but its not such huge improvement over what the team had last year that his ability to hit home runs would counterbalance those free swinging ways.
What might be the number he’s looking for. While he signed with the Dodgers on a one-deal steal of a deal, that will not be happening this team. Hernandez will go the front of the line if teams believe last season was his new home. That new home should be in Philadelphia.
Trade Ranger Suarez, Brandon Marsh
The unpopular move.
It’s funny how one person can go from saying “the rotation can be a strength by trading for Player X” to “Let’s trade from that strength” in one fell swoop. Yet that is the direction the Phillies should take with Suarez. We’ll get back to him in a minute.
Were this to be the actual blueprint followed by the Phillies for their offseason, trading Marsh would make some sense. There would be some depth in the outfield position and trading him would be able to net them a few prospects. Maybe those prospects aren’t of top 150 quality, but he really wouldn’t have a place with the team if Buxton and Hernandez were brought into the fold. Johan Rojas would have his rightful place as fourth outfielder and there is some combination of Weston Wilson, Kody Clemens and Cal Stevenson that could fill the role of fifth outfielder while simultaneously not making that much money. Trading Marsh would free up some arbitration dollars while also refilling the depleted prospect coffers. It makes sense.
Trading Suarez, though? Does that make sense? Hear me out.
There was always going to come a point where a key member of the team’s core didn’t receive an extension. One simply cannot extend everyone, nor should a team continually run it back with the same roster year after year after year. The product becomes stale and things needs a sprucing. In this plan laid out above, the team is bringing in new blood to the rotation, new blood that is better than what is already here in some case. If Crochet were to become a Phillie, even Aaron Nola is going to get a bump downwards to the third slot in the rotation. Now all of a sudden, the team would have at least seven competent major league starters, meaning a deal from that surplus would come into focus. No one is taking on Taijuan Walker, so his being moved is out. They just gave Cristopher Sanchez an extension, so they clearly see him as part of their future and Andrew Painter quite literally is their future in the rotation. That leaves an odd man out.
It’s curious that Suarez has never gotten that extension, but it also makes sense. As good as he has been while on the mound, there is still that whole thing of being on the mound. He’s suffered injuries in the past few seasons that have caused him to miss time. His career high in innings for a season is 155 1⁄3 and though he came close in 2024 (150 2⁄3 ), he’s still not shown the desired longevity the team wants in a starter. Were they to get Crochet, he would make a solid trade piece for teams in need of pitching that aren’t keen on paying the money for the top tier starters on the free agent market. The Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs come to mind right away, with a team like the Tigers another option due to their need to starting pitching and their desire to keep the ledgers light.
What kind of return would he fetch? Hard to say. He’ll be a free agent after 2025, so the lack of team control would be an issue for some teams. Still, the lack of high quality starting pitching (and he’s still high quality) that is available for teams to acquire would make the return still something the team would want. A top 100 prospect would be something the team could reasonably demand in addition to some lower level lottery tickets. Whatever it might be, it would be a return people could look at and say, “Yeah, that’s about what he’s worth.”
Now, these are just the moves of one person playing fantasy baseball. There are others ones to make as well. What about a second high leverage reliever? Is there any kind of bench the depth the team should be looking at? Yes to both of these questions. The coaching staff clearly likes having at least five pitchers they trust and right now, they’re down to maybe 2 1⁄3 or 3 depending on your view of Jose Alvarado. Bringing back Hoffman gives them that one extra arm to use deep in games. Putting Crochet in the second slot of the rotation behind Wheeler and ahead of Nola makes the rotation, on paper at least, the odds on consensus for “best starting pitching in the game”. The offense is addressed with Buxton and Hernandez while the trades of Suarez and Marsh gives them a bit more depth in their farm system in case there needs to be a move at the trade deadline to put them over the edge. The moves mentioned above give the team a new look, one I believe to be better than 2024 if everyone plays to their ceiling.
It’s a tall order to ask everyone to stay healthy. The risk in trading for someone like Buxton is real and it looms large. But if the team wants to be creative in reshaping their roster, these are moves I would do.
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