Gerrit Cole‘s decision to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees on Saturday was not surprising. The Yankees‘ likely response to keep him in pinstripes by adding another year at $36 million to trigger a $180 million deal over five years won’t be, either.
But as the 5 p.m. ET decision to make this possible looms, some have questioned if the right move is to keep him — or, at least, whether questions should be asked about how easy a call it should be for general manager Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner.
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One of those people is ex-New York Mets general manager Zack Scott, who wrote on X this weekend:
I expect the Yankees to pick up the option to bring him back, but in a vacuum, they probably should let him walk. $180m/5 years for his age 34-38 seasons is a tremendous risk. Perhaps they’re right that it’s a risk they have to take (and can manage better than most clubs). It would take huge stones to walk away.
NJ Advance Media‘s Randy Miller wrote Sunday that it remains “doubtful” that the Yankees let Cole walk after he opted out of the last four seasons of his $324 million deal, but that it was “strange that they didn’t immediately void the opt-out as soon as it was triggered on Saturday.”
What makes this decision more complicated than it seems?
While Cole is building a Hall of Fame resume and has been among baseball’s top aces for the last seven seasons, which included a 2023 Cy Young and two runners-up finishes, the track record of health for pitchers is not strong, let alone those in their mid-to-late 30s and with the workload of Cole, who has thrown more than 2,000 innings in his career.
Cole also dealt with an elbow injury last year and took some time to recapture his dominance, though it came with decreased fastball velocity (95.9 mph) and strikeout rate (25.4%, which would be the lowest since 2017). In his 95 regular-season innings, he posted a 3.41 ERA/3.69 FIP with 99 strikeouts. He‘s still an excellent pitcher, but legitimate questions have surfaced as to whether he’s as dominant as he once was.
The other factor here, which could conceivably lead to Cole staying on an altered deal (perhaps with deferred money?), is Juan Soto’s future. Steinbrenner said earlier this year that he does not want another $300 million payroll. Soto is expected to sign for around $600 million over 10-plus years and go to the highest bidder, which many presume would come from the Mets, who have the richest owner in Steve Cohen.
“I just don‘t think (keeping Cole) as inevitable as what people think just because of the injury he had in spring training,” ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney said Oct. 31 on the “Baseball Tonight” podcast. “Look, the Yankees, they know what’s going on with his elbow better than anyone else in the industry.”
Cole’s $36 million average annual value would place him fourth among starting pitchers, per Spotrac.
“Honestly, if Gerrit Cole opted out and the Yankees elected to not exercise that 10th-year option, that‘s the best thing for the franchise,” ESPN’s Paul Hembekides said on the Nov. 1 “Baseball Tonight” episode. “I know you wind up letting him walk for next to nothing. But I don‘t know that paying Gerrit Cole through his 30s is wise — that‘s not a get to, that’s a have to, especially if it comes at the expense of Juan Soto.
Could the Yankees be seeking to save some money with Cole so they have extra to make their best pitch to Soto, who is 26, and/or add a younger starting pitcher, like Corbin Burnes, who is 30?
Even if it seems unlikely, it’s not as crazy as you think.
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