These guys might fly under the radar ownership wise, but they have the matchup and upside to smash their price tags. Perfect for differentiating your GPP lineups.
Ja Morant – MEM – PG ($8,200)
Ja Morant is the ultimate GPP wild card tonight against the Celtics, and if you’re chasing a big payout, he’s worth the roll of the dice. Boston ranks 27th in pace, which might seem like a buzzkill, but they’re also third in points allowed league-wide, giving Morant a crack at exploiting their defensive lapses. His 31% usage rate is among the slate’s best, and he’s averaging 22.3 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.2 rebounds, numbers that have spiked recently with a 7.8 FP/G boost over his last three games.
The 236.5 game total is juicy, and Memphis’ league-leading pace (1st) could turn this into a track meet where Morant’s electric athleticism and playmaking take over. He’s fresh off a stretch where his FD points per minute jumped to 1.31, showing he’s heating up at the right time. Sure, Boston’s defense is stingy (fifth in defensive rating), but Morant’s ability to attack the rim and rack up assists in transition makes him a threat to drop 45-50 FD points if the game script cooperates. He’s boom-or-bust, potentially lower ownership, and a sky-high ceiling make him a GPP differentiator.
Jalen Williams – OKC – PF/SF ($8,200)
Jalen Williams is quietly becoming a GPP darling, and tonight’s matchup against the Bulls could be his breakout moment. With Holmgren questionable (hip), Williams could see his 27% usage rate climb into the low-30s, especially if OKC’s frontcourt thins out further with Hartenstein also in doubt. Chicago’s 21st-ranked rebounding rate is a soft spot he can exploit, and his season averages of 21.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists already scream upside.
The Thunder’s 127.0 implied total, the highest on the slate, puts him in a prime position to feast, and his 1.25 FD points per minute is elite for a guy at this price. Over the last three games, he’s been slightly down (-2.2 PPG, -10.7 FP/G), but that’s more about OKC’s depth than his ability. Holmgren’s absence would flip that narrative fast.
The Bulls rank 28th in points allowed to forwards, and with OKC favored by 15.0, Williams could pile up stats even in a blowout. His ownership should stay reasonable next to chalkier names like SGA, making him a sneaky 40+ FD-point candidate with tournament-winning potential.
Norman Powell – LAC – SF/SG ($6,500)
Norman Powell is the kind of mid-tier play that can win you a GPP without breaking the bank, and his matchup against Orlando is dripping with opportunity. He’s been a scoring machine this season, averaging 22.6 points per game with a 26% usage rate that’s held steady even with Kawhi Leonard back in the fold. Leonard’s minutes are still ramping up (5.1 above his average but not yet full tilt), meaning Powell remains with a heavy role in the Clippers’ offense.
Orlando ranks 25th in 3-point percentage allowed, which plays right into Powell’s hands as a sharpshooter. His 1.01 FD points per minute is quietly efficient, and while the Clippers’ 106.8 implied total isn’t the slate’s flashiest, Powell’s ability to pop off for 30+ real points keeps him in the GPP conversation. Recent trends show a slight dip (-4.3 PPG, -4.2 FP/G), but that’s more noise than signal; this matchup could spark a return to form. At $6,500, he’s a pivot off chalkier guards and wings, offering a realistic shot at 35-40 FD points if he gets hot.
Alexandre Sarr – WAS – PF/C ($7,100)
Alexandre Sarr is a gamble, no doubt about it, but the payoff could be massive in this GPP slate. The Wizards are banged up, Kyshawn George (out, ankle) and Khris Middleton (out, knee) are sidelined, leaving Sarr as one of the few healthy bigs to soak up minutes and usage. His 23% usage rate is trending up (7% bump over the last three), and he’s averaging 13.1 points and 6.6 rebounds with a recent surge (5.4 PPG, 4.2 FP/G increase). Miami’s 22nd-ranked rebounding rate and seventh-ranked points allowed give him a runway to rack up stats, especially in the paint where the Heat have been vulnerable.
The Wizards’ 106.5 implied total isn’t massive, but the 99.5 projected pace against Miami’s 28th-ranked pace could keep this game flowing enough for Sarr to shine. His 1.11 FD points per minute is promising, and if he pushes past 30 minutes, a real possibility with the injury chaos, he’s got 30-35 FD-point upside. Ownership will be low as people gravitate to safer bigs like Sabonis or AD, making Sarr a dart throw with tournament-altering potential.
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