Detroit ― Of the teams reportedly still in on Alex Bregman, no team stands to gain more than the Tigers should they sign the free-agent third baseman.
Fangraphs, the highly respected baseball website, published an article Tuesday that gave the Tigers a 31.2% chance of making the playoffs with their current roster, and a 43.6% chance should they sign Bregman. That’s a difference of 12.4% chance, trailing only the Kansas City Royals’ 14.6% chance, and there’s no indication the Royals are in on him.
With less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to TigerTown in Lakeland, Florida, Bregman, who turns 31 next month, remains the top free agent available.
Bregman has been at least a 4.0 WAR player each of the past three seasons, and peaked as an 8.9 WAR player in 2019. He has reportedly been seeking a deal worth at least $200 million this offseason, but so far, Bregman and super agent Scott Boras have come up empty in that pursuit.
The only known offer for Bregman has come from the only team he’s played for, the Houston Astros, who are said to still have on the table the six-year, $156-million offer they made him before free agency began. That would give him an annual average salary of $26 million, when he made $30.5 million in 2024. In other words, that’d be a pay cut.
There has been no indication the Astros have been willing to go beyond that offer, as they are leery of again crossing the luxury-tax threshold, even as manager Joe Espada and star Jose Altuve have openly lobbied for management to bring back Bregman.
Astros general manager Dana Brown told reporters in Houston on Tuesday that the club continues to have internal discussions about bringing back Bregman, but they haven’t had recent talks with Bregman or Boras.
The Tigers this week agreed to a two-year, $35-million contract with starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, who they traded away to the Los Angeles Dodgers at last year’s deadline. That deal, still not announced by the Tigers, would bring the team’s payroll to the $137-million range for 2025, which, by 2024 figures, would still rank them in the bottom half of teams in Major League Baseball.
In other words, the money is there to sign Bregman ― with his salary, they don’t even crack the top 10 payrolls ― and the Tigers have reportedly been interested in Bregman all offseason, and that continues to be the case.
Other teams said to still be interested in Bregman include the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs. The Red Sox, per Fangraphs, would go from 45.3% of making the playoffs to 56.1% with Bregman, an improvement of 10.8%. (Fangraphs came up with the numbers through computer simulations with Bregman on teams’ rosters, and with their current projected third basemen.) That’s the second-biggest jump among teams reportedly still in on Bregman, behind the Tigers, who are coming off a playoff appearance in 2024, the franchise’s first in a decade.
Still, Detroit got to the playoffs on the back of its pitching, not its offense. Third base is an obvious need, and a Bregman signing also would improve right field, as it’d allow Matt Vierling to shift from third to right full-time.
The Tigers addressed the offense earlier this offseason in signing second baseman Gleyber Torres, which moved Colt Keith from second to first. That leaves the future uncertain for former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson.
Signing Bregman would provide an even bigger boost to the offense, and reunite Bregman with his former manager in Houston, current Tigers manager AJ Hinch. That’s why the Tigers have been considered arguably the top fit for Bregman, especially since in both Houston and Boston, there would need to be significant position shuffling to open a spot at third base. When the Astros figured Bregman was moving on, they acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs. If Bregman returns, Paredes could move to second, and Altuve could move to left field.
Bregman’s glove (he won a Gold Glove in 2024) and playoff experience (he’s won two World Series) are big assets, and his veteran presence also is considered a significant need for a Tigers team that is among the youngest in baseball.
The Tigers haven’t given out a contract of more than two years under Scott Harris, who became president of baseball operations in September 2022. And the Tigers still are reeling from the sting of the Javy Báez contract, a six-year, $140-million deal that has been an absolute disaster, and doesn’t figure to get much better before that deal expires after the 2027 season. That contract was handed out by then-general manager Al Avila, but doesn’t seem to be prohibitive in the Tigers’ pursuit of Bregman, given if they weren’t willing to go long-term with him, they wouldn’t have been considered a front runner to land him for much of this offseason, including now, even after the Flaherty signing.
Bregman batted .260/.315/.453 for the Astros in 2024, rallying from a slow start. Still, his on-base percentage and OPS were down considerably from 2023, though his slugging percentage did go up.
tpaul@detroitnews.com
@tonypaul1984
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
