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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Wednesday
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The New York Yankees rotation is getting some much-needed reinforcement with RHP Clarke Schmidt slated to be activated and start Wednesday’s home affair against the Kansas City Royals. Schmidt missed most of spring training with shoulder soreness. He made two rehab starts for Double-A Somerset, fanning 11 with just one walk over 7 1/3 combined innings. Schmidt posted four innings with 61 pitches in his last rehab appearance, so he should be able to manage five frames in his 2025 MLB debut. The Royals tote the second lowest wOBA in the league into the Bronx.
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Washington Nationals RHP Mitchell Parker opened the season with three quality starts. He’s not racking up strikeouts, with only 10 in 18 1/3 frames. He’s walked too many batters with eight, but he’s kept the ball in the yard and in today’s game, it’s hard to score runs without the benefit of the long ball. Parker has a road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose offense sports the third lowest wOBA, fueled by the third worst home run rate.
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There are only seven starters with a rostership over 50% and all 10 are ranked in the top 10 for Wednesday, so instead of a pitcher to avoid, here is a bonus streamer. We’re streaming against the second and third least potent offense, let’s continue the theme and recommend the Athletics RHP Osvaldo Bido against the Chicago White Sox and the league’s poorest wOBA and fifth fewest average runs per game. Bido will be on the road for the third time in four starts, but he’s fanned 14 in 15 innings without allowing a home run.
Today’s best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.37 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.52 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.62 ERA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.17 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.71 ERA in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.60 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Wednesday
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The Nationals have swiped the seventh most bases this season. On Wednesday, they play the Pirates, who have yielded the sixth most. Even with LHP Bailey Falter on the hill for the Pirates, look for the Nationals to be aggressive on the basepaths. Falter has already surrendered four stolen bases, after giving up 18 last season. Dylan Crews, Luis Garcia Jr. and Paul DeJong each have multiple swipes this season and are available in at least 60% of ESPN leagues.
Hitters to avoid on Wednesday
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Suggesting avoiding San Diego Padres batters is a tough sell, but the slate is replete with offenses facing weak starting pitchers. The Padres draw Chicago Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd in Petco Park. Boyd shut down the Padres in Wrigley Field, but more importantly, the southpaw has also pitched well against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, both on the road. Granted, Fernando Tatis Jr. is an automatic start, but reserving his teammates makes sense for this tough matchup.
Today’s best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .334 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .333 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .332 wOBA in this matchup.
Today’s worst matchups for hitters
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .279 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Guardians pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today’s top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% – 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the leagues 10th-shallowest CF fences in todays game.
Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.90 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to his seasonal average of 19.4 degrees, Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34.3 degrees angle over the last seven days.
Eric Wagaman | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Wagaman’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (10.8 degrees in the last week) is considerably higher than his 5.4 degrees seasonal angle.
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Bailey Falter | UNDER 4.5 K (-140)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.66 EV
One reason to bet this: The Washington Nationals project to have the fourth-least strikeout-prone batting order (20.2 K%) of all teams on the slate.
Steven Matz | UNDER 3.5 K (-175)
Projection: 75% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.45 EV
One reason to bet this: Matz should be on a bit of a short leash in this game, with my system projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.
Kris Bubic | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.70 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14.1 mph in this matchup, the strongest of the day for batters.
Today’s Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Red Sox @ Rays | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $4.28 EV
Royals @ Yankees | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $2.95 EV
Mets @ Twins | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $0.23 EV
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