Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 81 pitches.
Did you watch Jacob Misiorowski’s MLB debut with me and the PL community last night? It was dope. 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 81 pitches (W) tells a story that isn’t too far off from what to expect and it’s important we get into it. Note: You can remove one of those walks as it came when he returned for the sixth (why?!), threw three terrible pitches for a 3-0 count, then was removed with cramps (not a turned ankle as we initially thought).
He throws 100 mph fastballs that are literally the best fastball in the game. The velocity is already elite, but paired with 7.5 “extension” and a 1.8 HAVAA is absolutely gross. That’s Tyler Glasnow’s extension merged with Joe Ryan’s HAVAA at Hunter Greene’s velocity. He doesn’t even have bad vert on the pitch either at 16″. UNREAL.
The problem shouldn’t shock you: He’s not the best at getting it over the plate. We saw him get it in the zone early, then struggle as he got deeper into the game. In those moments, he turned to a 94/95 mph cutter (or slider, whatever you want) that has legit different movement from the four-seamer and is his golden pitch. Seriously, it is one of the best secondaries out there…if he can make it return a 65% strike rate. It did seem like he had a better feel for it than the four-seamer at times without those frustrating expressions of volatility, though there is some refining left to do.
Then there’s the curveball that is also absurd…when he can spot it. Many were casted out of his hand too early and flipped away without bite to LHB while a pair were dastardly under the plate. Oh, and he threw two disgusting 91 mph changeups to LHB down-and-away that just isn’t fair.
I worry about how often he’ll go five frames, let alone six. One of the discussions with our Playback guests (Marc Luino & Justin Mason + Paul Sporer in the chat!) was Eury vs Jay Mis the rest of the way and it’s a perfect showcase of different skillsets and trying to figure out how to weigh them. Who will complete five frames more often? Eury has far better fastball command, though he is still refining the feel for his secondaries as he returns from TJS (hard to really tell after just one game!). Jay Mis is likely to be babied a little less than Eury (maybe not?) and is less efficient but comes with more dominant raw stuff. It’s hard to gauge at the moment how much of a PEAS Misiorowski will be, which can lead to four inning outings and a lot of frustration as the walks pile up. But hot dang, this was fun. Pick him up and ride this train. There is going to be THAT start at some point and the ERA floor isn’t so terrible unless he has the worst day you’ve ever seen…which may happen. Here’s to enduring those expected early bumps for what could be an unreal second half of the year.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This is so fun.
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs WSN (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
This was so good until it wasn’t. Huh? His splitter and cutter were cruising and seven frames looked like a given until he pulled his hamstring covering first and trying to manage a high throw to first from Alonso. Now Pete is in hibernation. Thems the rules. Expect a significant IL stint with a hamstring strain, which relieves some of the SP logjam for the Mets with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas Jr. rehabbing, but Senga wasn’t supposed to be the sacrificial lamb. Not like this…NOT LIKE THIS.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs NYY (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 73 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Sure, sure, I dig Lugo and he’s a great arm who should be able to handle a great offense here and there, though this one was a bit fortunate with the help of Koufax. Props to him for being delicate with his pitches and avoiding mistakes as much as possible – just walk the guys instead of giving in, it’s okay! – and we can all yell at the rain for serving us a Philly. Life ain’t fair. The curve is back in business and I’m confident in his next starts against the Rangers and Rays.
Will Warren (NYY) @ KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
I was surprised to see Warren back out in the bottom of the sixth after a rain delay in the top half of the frame, though it was just a single and two outs before getting the hook and we exhaled, willing to accept the Philly. The four-seamer is at 7.1 feet of extension with 1.5 HAVAA (yesss) and for what we’ve considered a sinker/sweeper arm (with a good changeup!), it’s a legit weapon that can turn him into a proper stud over time. The changeup and curve to LHB wasn’t nearly as effective as we’ve seen in the past, though, and his fastball command was a bit off, too, but for the most part, we love this. It’s almost like people were worried looking at just the box score and not the context of the Dodgers + a Careful, Icarus against the Red Sox. NUANCE IS EVERYTHING IN THIS WORLD. You don’t have to shout that, have some tact. Oh. Right.
Keegan Akin (BAL) vs DET (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 27 pitches.
Akin opened for Dean Kremer, who allowed two longballs in the fourth for all four runs and was otherwise fantastic – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 105 pitches. I cannot express enough at how much of a banger the splitter was to LHB. We’re talking 16/42 whiffs on the pitch and 12 outs earned on the splitter alone, including seven punchouts. Magnificent. Unfortunately, the rest was pretty meh, but generally did enough to set up the splitty. In the end, he’s still Dean Werewolf and it’s too bad the moon was shaded for a frame. Almost had it.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs PIT (W) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
Taillon’s little brother made his MLB debut last night (I can’t be the only one that sees it) and he had to ensure he fanned more than K Mis. The BSB is still there with four-seamers up and changeups down to LHB, though it’s another start of shift sweepers to RHB. That feel is a little off and hopefully it comes back soon. Oh, and those weird curves to LHB, figure those out too, okay? And the cutter. Right, let’s get those outside. Okay, that seems like a lot of criticism but the whole package was solid against a weak team. Now it’s the Brewers (maybe against Misiorowski…? HA!) without an elite offense on the horizon and we’re coasting with our legs on the dashboard.
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 95 pitches.
Look, if Valdez is still cruising in Sacré Verde and the Phillies after, I’ll give him AGA. We know there will be a valley at some point here and also that he’s so incredible when these runs happen. That curve was absurd once again at 34% CSW and 12/41 whiffs, propelling this Golden Goal. Ragans died for this. That’s a Jason Collette joke and let me have this.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) @ CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
That’s a Gold Star for Heaney and a Win for PL Bot (you rascal!), even if it’s a loss and a 4.50 ERA. A PQS with a low WHIP and seven strikeouts against the Cubs is no easy task and massive props to Heaney for having some deadly sliders and effective changeups to RHB (outside of a ghastly lofted slowball to Suzuki for a solo shot). The four-seamer command was a bit…rough with Koufax helping a bit and the highest heater of the night left the yard off PCA’s bat (HOW?!), returning two of his three runs. Yes, the major blemish came from a great pitch. Funny how that works. He’s a desperate play against the Tigers up next as he’s an NL-Only Cherry Bomb that carries too low of a floor in 12-teamers.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
A PQS isn’t the worst and the whiffs were there but the slider and curveball strikes were not + the four-seamer wasn’t spotted well and is a pretty mediocre offering in Coors with a super steep attack angle, 14″ of vert, 6.6 extension and…94.8 mph? That’s over a tick down from the 96 mph we normally see. Welp, he gets the Guardians and Marlins in Oracle Park up next, that should be fine, even if I can’t stand to watch him pitch.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ MIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
THE STREAK LIVES. That’s fourteen starts, zero games above 3 ER allowed, and hey! A Win! But at what cost? Ober’s dignity. No, the ratios. Oh, yeah. It’s hard to expect better, you know?
Davis Martin (CHW) @ HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
Awwww. That third inning was tough to watch with baseball being baseball as three runs came in. The cutter is still excellent, though it was slightly off as it kept creeping too far off the plate down-and-away, leading to a few too many four-seamers and sinkers over the plate. Just a few. I think I’m kinda in as a streamer against the Cardinals next with his cutter and changeup feel.
Michael Soroka (WSN) @ NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 102 pitches.
Blegh. The Mets aren’t a fun squad in the first place and I’m not all that shocked it didn’t go well. Soroka’s curveball feel wasn’t as good as we’ve seen and his overall fastball command left a little to be desired, including two longballs off four-seamers. The changeup was…fine but not particularly sharp to LHB, leaving an arsenal that needed the curve to step up more than a 53% strike rate. Good news though: Rockie Road is next and you’re going to want that one. Enjoy it, then send him to the wire for two games against both Los Angeles squads.
Sonny Gray (STL) @ MIL (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
Thursday gave us Mr. Gray, who was cruising through four frames with an unfortunate run to his name that could be considered an Arenado error. And then the storm began. Walk, Picked off!, single, single, double, single, homer. It happens, we brush it off, and move on. Go have fun against the CrySox.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs TEX (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 98 pitches.
Oh. Oh no. Like Sonny, the clouds were apparent on an Obercast day. This was a start where nothing went as planned. The four-seamer wasn’t hitting its spots upstairs and sat right at 90 mph (not 91+ as we want). He couldn’t locate sliders or sweepers and when he did, they were crushed (2/2 hits in play, one a homer). It led to 35% changeup usage to RHB, which either found a chunk of the plate or missed entirely, and that’s your ballgame. We can point to the breaker failing him if we want, but the real issue is the lack of foundation established by his four-seamer. Yes, 70% strikes and with the slider and changeup looking so uneasy, he should have been peppering that thing 50% of the time, but he couldn’t get it where he wanted it to. You may want to rage drop (I’d get it!) though I’d start him in Cincinnati next time out and expect better. Note: Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic reported that Ober has been dealing with a hip issue since the spring and he thinks he’ll be fine. Oh dear.
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs SFG (ND) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 92 pitches.
Senz-A does what Senz-A does. I think y’all now understand why it never made sense how he randomly performed well in the past. That was never in question. WELL MAYBE FOR SOME. Nah. Nope. Me neither. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.
Game of the Day
Logan Webb vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Aces gonna ace.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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