Kendall Valenzuela recaps some of the biggest moves of NFL free agency from a fantasy football standpoint.
Oh, you didn’t have enough drama in your life? Well, good thing free agency has begun because there’s no shortage of drama, big deals, and head-scratching moves that should at least last us a few weeks! Are the Seahawks tanking or just trying to stay afloat? What could Justin Fields really do for the New York Jets?
This is the perfect time to go through a few moves we saw and see whose stock is up and whose stock is down for fantasy football.
Let’s dive in!
Sam Darnold—Stock Down
Full disclosure, I am a Seahawks fan but I am trying to take my heart out of this breakdown … I promise! The Seahawks moved on from Geno Smith and the question really became: What’s next and does it involve tanking? The move for Sam Darnold doesn’t indicate that the team believes they cannot win right now with the pieces they have. Neither does the money: He got a three-year, $100.5 million deal with $55 million guaranteed.
For fantasy football, though, I can’t help but think that Darnold’s stock is down with this move. The Minnesota Vikings gave him a quarterback-friendly environment with Kevin O’Connell—who seems to be somewhat of a quarterback whisperer—a BETTER THAN THE SEAHAWKS offensive line, high-end receiver talent, and a good defense.
I’ve been saying it since Darnold was linked to the Seahawks, but he is a pressure-sensitive quarterback and Seattle’s interior offensive line is one of the worst in the league. For all that’s said about Geno Smith, he did a lot to mitigate how bad that offensive line play was. If in the coming months the team decides to stop putting a Band-Aid on a gaping hole that has been dragging the organization down for years, then maybe I will change my mind on Darnold. For now, he’s playing behind PFF’s reigning 31st-ranked offensive line, which is why we have to downgrade him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t Justin Jefferson, but I do believe his breakout was a sign of things to come and not just a flash in the pan. There are not many (if any) serious weapons behind him, though. I am going to try to be optimistic! Maybe Darnold can be the answer for Seattle, but it feels like we have to pull back our expectations for fantasy.
Najee Harris—Stock Up
OK, wait, I actually really like this landing spot for Najee Harris. He locked down a one-year deal worth up to $9.25 million with the Los Angeles Chargers. Sorry J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, it’s not us, it’s you. Here’s one thing everyone knows about Harris: He is damn durable. He has never missed a game and is coming off his fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
This feels like the season offensive coordinator Greg Roman could finally get that running game he wanted to help quarterback Justin Herbert. Last season it never really came together for Edwards and Dobbins—according to The Athletic, the Chargers finished 24th in rushing success rate. The Chargers won’t be done adding to their running back room, but Harris will be reliable between the tackles. They still (like the Seahawks) need more help on the interior of the offensive line. The knock on the Chargers for Harris could be that they were only 22nd in running back fantasy points, which could be attributed to the lack of running back involvement in the passing game.
Dec 15, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) leaps over Philadelphia Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (8) while running with the ball during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Right now, Harris is going as the RB33 on Underdog, around guys like Isiah Pacheco, Zach Charbonnet, and Rhamondre Stevenson. This is definitely going to change, because he should be viewed as more of a low-end RB2. Zero-RB drafters, you know what to do …
Javonte Williams—I can’t do this again, but wow it could be fun?
So the Dallas Cowboys actually signed a free agent?! OK, sure, it was Javonte Williams, but maybe we could be sucked back into him for fantasy in 2025?
We all remember just how good Williams was during his 2021 campaign, when he amassed 204.9 PPR points, but we haven’t seen that version of Williams since injuring his knee early the following season. Could there still be gas left in the tank? The team will more than likely go into the NFL Draft and find a running back to pair with Williams. Depending on who they go with that could bring down Williams’ fantasy stock, especially since this is a deep rookie running back class. Overall it feels like we should view Williams as more of an RB4 this season.
Justin Fields—Don’t look now, but we are so back
A fresh start is exactly what Justin Fields needed, and I really liked this landing spot with Aaron Glenn and the New York Jets. He averaged 18.9 (QB8) fantasy points per game in the six games he played for the Steelers last season, but even better is that rushing upside.
In six starts last year, he rushed for 289 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Where he needs to improve more, obviously, is in the passing game. But I like this duo with Fields and new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. It feels like he will be given a full opportunity to be their guy, which gives him more opportunities to learn and develop his game. I’m back in!
Chris Godwin—Staying in Tampa, staying in our fantasy hearts
This was where I believed Chris Godwin would be all along, because it made sense for both sides. Godwin signed a three-year, $66 million deal and reportedly left around $20 million on the table to return to the Buccaneers.
Before he got injured last season, Godwin was on pace to have a monster season. He led the league with 50 catches through seven weeks, and his 576 receiving yards was second most in the league, too. I know he’s going to be another year older and coming off a dislocated left ankle injury, but I believe he can still be a fantasy asset.
For Jalen McMillan fans, you might have to wait a little longer, but I am still going to be drafting him in later rounds in 2025. He has shown that if either Evans or Godwin go down, he can carry a bigger workload and give us WR2 or WR3 upside.
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