It has been a March Madness full of favorites, as favored teams won all 12 games in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, going 7-5 against the spread. Overall, that means favorites have won 48 of the 60 games played in the 2025 NCAA tournament. Bookmakers would have loved an upset to break up all of the moneyline parlays tied together with favorites over the weekend but didn’t get their wish.
While some have complained that the lack of upsets have made the 2025 NCAA tournament a little less interesting, what we’re left with is all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for only the second time in history. Clearly, these are the four best teams, and there are a couple interesting futures wagers still alive, including a $500,000 wager on Duke at +350 odds at BetMGM, which would pay out $1.75 million.
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[A Duke national title could net a bettor over $168K on a $5 championship winners parlay]
As I’ve done throughout the tournament, I’ve enlisted the help of some college basketball handicappers to share a best bet or two for the Final Four.
Here are the bets they like for Duke-Houston and Auburn-Florida:
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Saturday
6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Corbie Craig, Bettor Odds: Johni Broome’s health is a massive worry of course, but we also don’t look enough at the challenges Florida has found itself in multiple times this tourney — like when the Gators were down nine with two minutes left to a Texas Tech team playing an injured Chance McMillian. Start slow and the Tigers have all the firepower to put you away. Broome, Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford get a ton of attention, but in this matchup, I look at Miles Kelly to have a massive impact. A strong body shooting 93% from the stripe and a quick trigger from deep, if Broome isn’t at his best then the swing pass through to Kelly makes a ton of sense. In the game as a whole, the Gators have the guards to speed up Auburn, and I’m good backing the team that plays its style the most.
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Bet: Florida -2.5
Sam Panayotovich, “Bet Sweats” host: The Florida infatuation is very real after a whole season of hearing that it’s Duke and Auburn, then everyone else. I’m banking on Broome being healthy and will happily take a full possession with the veteran-driven Tigers.
Bet: Auburn +3
8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
Paul Stone, pro bettor: Houston is No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and the Cougars only had four opponents score 70 or more in regulation all season. The trademark of Kelvin Sampson’s teams has been tenacious defense — and this team is no different. They contest every pass and try to eliminate every angle. They’re relentless and never take their foot off the gas defensively. Duke’s arguably been the best offensive team in college basketball over the course of the season, and I think Sampson realizes the Cougars can’t get in a shootout with the Blue Devils. Houston has to turn it into a rock fight, an ugly game with a slower pace and points at a premium.
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We saw what Duke did to Alabama’s 3-point attack in its Elite Eight victory, and the Crimson Tide were coming off a historic performance, hitting 25-of-51 three-pointers against BYU in the Sweet 16. Against Duke, however, Bama got very few good looks and went 8-of-32 from downtown, as the Blue Devils were clearly committed to defending the 3-point line. Duke has a lot more length than other teams, which helps the perimeter defense, taking away the sidelines and making it tough on 3-point shooting teams. I like this game to stay under the total.
Bet: Under 136.5
Craig: Alabama head coach Nate Oats’ postgame presser expresses my current sentiment regarding Duke: “This is an insanely tough two-day prep.” The good news for Sampson is that he’s been given the time to sift through the various backdoor lob attempts, elevator screens and other offensive sets that attempt to draw attention away from Cooper Flagg and allow him to slowly piece together an iso game. The Cougars stop backdoor lobs much better than nearly anyone in the country, and although they are small, they will be will prepped for this one. Duke has played very similarly paced teams back to back, giving a pretty easy prep and allowing the game to speed up as it slowly pulls away and runs up the score. This contrast in style should pose some tempo change. I bet the under 136.
Bet: Under 136
Mike Randle, FTN Network: We project this as a one-score game at FTN, as Houston has been atop our power rankings for most of the season. Duke has steamrolled through the second half of the season, but has yet to face the level of defensive pressure the Cougars will bring Saturday. There have been teams that defend the 3-point line well (Alabama), or guard the interior well (Louisville), but the overall physicality and rebounding ability of Houston will challenge the Blue Devils’ young roster. With a healthy roster, and multiple big men (J’Wan Roberts, Ja’Vier Francis) to limit second-chance points, this line is too many points for a Houston team that is playing in its home state and is hungry for more than just a Final Four appearance.
Bet: Houston +5.5
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