It may seem crazy at first, but there is a path for the Spartans to be this year’s Indiana and reach the College Football Playoff
Indiana came out of no where last year to win 11 games and reach the College Football Playoff. So many this offseason have asked “who will be this year’s Indiana?” — which I believe could be Michigan State due to a few key reasons.
Michigan State football finished last season with losses in four of their final five games to miss out on the postseason for a third straight season. That rough finish has left a sour taste in the fanbase’s mouth, with this arguably being one of the most juice-less offseasons in a long time for the Spartans football program. But that doesn’t mean things can’t flip instantly should a few things go Michigan State’s way in 2025.
With an over/under win total of 5.5, it’s extremely unlikely for the Spartans to be in the mix for the College Football Playoff this upcoming season. At least on paper that is the case. But Indiana also wasn’t expected to have the year they had last year so there’s still hope Michigan State could channel some of the magic we saw in Bloomington, Ind. last fall this upcoming season.
So with that being said, let’s take a trip down the “what if” road and look how Michigan State could be this year’s team that stuns the college football world by jumping from bowl-less stinkers to College Football Playoff darlings.
Year Two Growth Under Jonathan Smith
It’s an age old slogan and theory that the biggest jump for a program is from year one to year two under its new head coach. That may not be as true as it once was with the transfer portal, but there still is some value in this theory.
For Michigan State specifically, the last two head coaches experienced notable jumps from year one to year two: Mark Dantonio improved from 7-6 to 9-4 with a shot at winning the Big Ten in the regular season finale between 2007 and 2008, and Mel Tucker went from 2-5 in 2020 to 11-2 in 2021. Certainly, the college football landscape had significantly changed even since Tucker had the massive jump in wins from his first season to his second, but this data alone further proves how much of a difference one year under the belt can make for a new head coach.
Jonathan Smith’s first year included taking numerous lumps as he began his rebuild at Michigan State. He said this spring that he feels the program is much further along than where they were last year, and I’m going to take him for his word on that since he isn’t the type of coach to artificially generate hype for his team. Could this improvement Smith highlighted in the spring result in the addition of five or six more wins to make the College Football Playoff? That is probably unlikely, but we did see that kind of transformation in East Lansing, Mich. just four years ago and shouldn’t completely rule that out this fall.
(Mostly) Friendly Schedule
One of the biggest reasons (or at least what many people pointed at) for the Hoosiers’ massive rise last year was the schedule. Not that it was extremely easy but that it lacked many top level opponents — only really a road trip to Ohio State.
So how does the Spartans’ schedule in 2025 compare to Indiana’s of last year? Well, it’s actually quite similar.
Michigan State should be favored in each of its non-conference games, with the toughest challenge being a home tilt against BC. As far as Big Ten play goes, there is only one team I’m confident will be an elite level team next year — that’s Penn State, who you play at home. The rest of the conference schedule includes essentially toss-up matchups where Michigan State will be no worse than a single digit underdog, if not a favorite.
So if we were to lay out a path for the Spartans to reach the College Football Playoff, they would probably need to win at least 10 games — here’s how that could look:
- Win all three of your home non-conference games (Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State)
- Lose to Penn State — but keep it relatively close in that home game
- Win seven of the remaining eight games: at USC, at Nebraska, UCLA, at Indiana, Michigan, at Minnesota, at Iowa and Maryland (in Detroit at Ford Field)
On paper with what we know now, I don’t think that third bullet point happens… BUT all eight of those teams are not world beaters and have their own flaws / uncertainties. This time last year, the Indiana schedule also looked a lot more daunting with Washington and Michigan on the slate, and both of those teams were no where near their preseason projections. Don’t be surprised if we have a similar situation with teams like USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan and Iowa being a few games below their projected win total this year.
Improved Talent and Roster Depth Via Portal
Michigan State had a quietly impressive offseason via the transfer portal. The Spartans didn’t necessarily make a ton of flashy and splashy moves, but the overall depth and talent on the roster experienced an upgrade from my point of view.
Michigan State added a number of key pieces to the offense via wide receiver transfers Omari Kelly (previously at Middle Tennessee State) and Chrishon McCray (Kent State), who should instantly improve the Spartans’ passing game. Montana State offensive tackle transfer Conner Moore was another huge win for the staff as numerous other big-time programs were after him during the winter portal.
Defensively, Michigan State added some depth and high-level players that should start — especially in the secondary. Cornerback Joshua Eaton from Texas State, edge rusher David Santiago from Air Force, defensive lineman Grady Kelly from Florida State and Anelu Lafaele from Wisconsin are just a few of the notable additions to the Spartans via the portal.
Maybe even more important for the Spartans this offseason was their ability to avoid the “big exit” via the transfer portal. The previous two offseasons (especially in the spring portal window), we saw Michigan State lose high-level contributors through the transfer portal, and that simply didn’t happen this year.
Did Michigan State turn a 5-7 roster into a College Football Playoff team through the portal this offseason? I’m not sure, but the roster definitely is improved from where Smith took over in December 2023.
Aidan Chiles’ Ceiling
The biggest wildcard for Michigan State in 2025 will be starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. If he takes the next step and reins in his pure talent as a dynamic quarterback, then Michigan State could be truly special. If he doesn’t and we see the same inconsistency from the early part of last year, then the Spartans will be hard pressed to reach a bowl game.
There of course are other key factors for the Spartans’ success in 2025 besides Chiles, but he is by far the most defining player for Michigan State. Last season, we saw glimpses of why he was a near five-star prospect out of high school and rated as the No. 2 transfer quarterback when he followed Smith from Oregon State to Michigan State. The problem with Chiles, though, was that those glimpses were just that, and we often didn’t get his top play on a consistent down-to-down and drive-to-drive basis.
The good news for Chiles and the Spartans is that he was a first time starter last year, and we saw his play improve throughout the season. Chiles improved his completion percentage by six percent, threw for three more touchdowns and had eight less interceptions in the second half of the season compared to the first half. The growth and consistency in his play began last fall, and if he can elevate from that, then I’m very excited about what he could produce for Michigan State next year. His ceiling has always been high, and if he can approach that in 2025, then he instantly makes the Spartans a very dangerous team.
Luck
There’s nothing scientific or purely in-depth about this final reason — it’s quite simple. If Michigan State football is going to flip from missing out on a bowl game to reaching the College Football Playoff, they’ll need to have some good ole’ fashion luck along the way.
Saying a team had luck to reach a high-level goal or their ceiling is often considered an insult, but that isn’t the case if you drill down into it. Injury luck, a fumbled ball bouncing perfectly back to the running back, a dropped interception or a costly missed field goal by the opponent are all things that sometimes go your way during a special season. For Michigan State to reach the College Football Playoff, they’ll need these type of lucky moments or extended luck throughout the season.
Indiana certainly experienced that last year, and the “Indiana” of this year will also get those same lucky breaks at a higher frequency than others en route to reaching the College Football Playoff.
Final Thoughts
Do you feel any more confident in the Spartans’ chances of reaching the College Football Playoff in 2025 after reading through my five reasons? Probably not to the point where you’re ready to start saving up for a CFP trip. But hopefully this article helped increase your faith in the potential for Michigan State this upcoming fall.
I personally believe the Spartans are going to come up at least a few games short of getting an at-large College Football Playoff bid. But in putting this post together I did find myself starting to get more and more excited about the year two growth under Smith. And the possibility of big things coming down the pipeline should they hit on a few of these called out items.
The most notable thing I’ll wrap up this post with is the statement that Chiles will ultimately determine how far Michigan State can go in 2025. The roster around him is improved from last year, and if he has a great season, then Michigan State will also be great. If he has a rough season, then the Spartans will find themselves home for the holidays again. Chiles will dictate where Michigan State goes in 2025, and I’m at least willing to put my faith in his potential of making the Spartans very good again. Because if he hits his ceiling, the Spartans will be this year’s Indiana.
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