The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party goes down on Saturday in Jacksonville, Florida as Florida and Georgia meet in its annual rivalry showdown.
The Bulldogs are back on its National Championship path after winning at Texas prior to its BYE last week, and would love to score a victory against a middling Florida team that is building towards the future with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway trying to show he is the QB to take the team forward.
Lagway has a big arm and has engineered impressive results in a small sample this season, but will have his hands full with the Georgia defense.
Here’s how to bet this rivalry showdown.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Florida
DJ Lagway: The freshman hasn’t been afraid to push the ball down the field and take chances. He has passed for 1,024 yards on only 86 pass attempts with five touchdowns to five interceptions. Starting for the now injured Graham Mertz for the rest of the season, Lagway led the Gators to a home win against Kentucky prior to its BYE week, completing seven passes for 259 yards.
Georgia
Carson Beck: Beck has had some growing pains this season with new weapons on offense, losing the likes of NFL studs Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers, watching his turnover worthy play rate nearly top last year’s mark, per Pro Football Focus. Beck has made 10 TWP’s to 11 from a full year in 2023. However, he’ll face a weak Florida defense on Saturday in hopes of finding his footing.
Florida has held up fairly well against as difficult of a schedule you can ask for to date, top 20 in yards per play. With Lagway stepping in for Mertz, the team may be more reliant on the big play threat, but in a game as a big underdog, that type of variance may help raise the ceiling for a potential upset.
With that in mind, I’m not going to back the Gators, but instead the over.
This Georgia defense has the ability to be the best in the country, but it doesn’t show it week in and week out, rather when necessary. Mississippi State was able to punch in a handful of scores against the Bulldogs defense in a 41-31 loss on the road, and I believe Lagway can stretch the field and move the ball at times against the National Championship favorites.
Florida’s offensive line has done well this season, allowing only 10 sacks to date, which makes me bullish there can be some opportunities for the offense to create some explosive plays.
Meanwhile, look for the Georgia offense to continue to push the ball down field, Beck’s average depth of target is up about a yard this season, and UF is outside the top half of the country in explosive pass rate.
I’ll back the over in this neutral site matchup.
PICK: OVER 52.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33
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