Listen, I still wouldn’t get your hopes up for Alex Bregman. For however much the Cubs could benefit from (1) his bat in the middle of the lineup (2) from sliding Matt Shaw to a more comfortable defensive home at second base, and (3) from whatever return you could get from Nico Hoerner on the trade market to accommodate such a move, any deal for Bregman remains wholly unlikely in my opinion. The financial cost, the draft pick + IFA bonus pool compensation, his other rumored multi-year offers … it’s all just too much to let ourselves do more than dream. And yet … the reports and rumors just keep coming in.
The Alex Bregman Rumors Continue
And while I was initially content to let Jon Heyman’s Friday morning post on X pass by without a write-up …
Astros and Cubs are believed showing significant interest in Alex Bregman, with Tigers and Red Sox among others involved. His longtime Astros team, also engaged at the start of winter, want him enough they may move Paredes to 2B and Altuve to LF to accommodate.
… I can’t exactly ignore that completely after the latest report from The Athletic.
There, beat reporters out of Houston (Chandler Rome), Chicago (Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney) and on the national scene (Ken Rosenthal) combined to deliver the moderately shocking news that the Cubs are, well … “engaged with free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, according to source briefed on those discussions.”
That is a whoooooole lot of credible reporters putting their names behind the rumor.
Now, that quartet does hedge against their own story by pointing out how unclear the extent of interest is from the Cubs (and the Astros), while also pointing out that the Red Sox, Tigers, and Blue Jays remain in the fold. But the interest is apparently there and real.
It also gets more specific.
Although this probably builds up the case AGAINST the Cubs ultimately landing Alex Bregman this offseason, it does lend credence to the belief that they are legitimately involved (via The Athletic):
“While the Cubs are trying to be opportunistic and get creative on a Bregman deal, sources indicated their current budget for baseball operations does not leave much room for the All-Star third baseman. Like the Astros, the Cubs have an ownership group that is reluctant to go over the $241 million luxury-tax threshold.”
In otherwords, I think it’s safe to say the Cubs are legitimately interested in Alex Bregman, just on their own terms. That, alone, is pretty big news.
However, I must also point out a number of conflating factors here.
- First of and foremost, those recent Cubs-Astros trade rumors revolving around Ryan Pressly? That’s theoretically in play so that the Astros have the budget to re-sign Alex Bregman, themselves. So the true intentions here – from all sides – has to be met with a discerning eye. Perhaps, for example, the Cubs are pressuring the Astros to send more money in the Pressly deal (if you don’t, maybe WE’LL just sign Alex Bregman, ourselves).
- For another, if the Cubs’ interest is primarily based in scooping up a short-term “opportunity,” then we can’t ignore recent reporting that claims the Astros’ six-year offer is still on the table. And that Bregman may have as many as three total offers for at least five years (including Houston).
I will add one additional layer, however. And that’s the Nico Hoerner component. Let’s say the Cubs do seriously want to add Alex Bregman, and perhaps even on something more than just a one-year deal. That will necessarily require the Cubs to move Nico Hoerner, which is of course something that’s been discussed all offseason.
However, unlike some apparently unsuccesful attempts to deal Hoerner earlier this winter – a “failure” we’ve mostly attributed in part to his offseason surgery – teams can now finally see him on the field, confirming his health with their own eyes. Maybe dealing him is more realistic now than it used to be. And so maybe signing Alex Bregman is too. In other words, maybe that’s why these rumors are heating up ever so slightly now.
But – and I’m sorry – I won’t leave you on that optimistic note. Although I see the value in trading Hoerner for pitching and improving the lineup with Alex Bregman’s bat, I still do not see it happening. The Cubs’ payroll seems to set lower even than it was last season. And any deal for Bregman, short or long, is going to be costly. It’s fun to follow, it’s fun to dream. But I’ll believe this when I see it.
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