Just under a year ago, the Mariners acquired second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins as part of a five-player deal that also involved right-hander Anthony DeScalfani, the latter of whom was traded to Seattle as part of the Robbie Ray trade earlier that same month. At the time of the deal, adding Polanco seemed to be something of a coup for the Mariners, who were in desperate need of an upgrade over Kolten Wong at second base and managed to take advantage of the fact that the Twins were facing a mandate to cut payroll and had plenty of infield depth at their disposal.
That allowed them to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the previous three seasons. Polanco even came with multiple years of control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout) that seemed quite likely to be a no-brainer for the club to pick up when the trade was executed. Flash forward to the end of the 2024 campaign, however, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. Given that, it was a surprise to no one when the Mariners opted to decline their option on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in savings for use on other areas of the roster.
Since then, Polanco has been awaiting an opportunity on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball activities at some point this month and be fully ready to go in time for Spring Training, but his market has nonetheless been rather quiet. The Astros reportedly had some level of interest in Polanco as a fallback plan in the event they failed to land Alex Bregman, but they instead pivoted to a combination of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the door on the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other teams have been publicly connected to the infielder.
Some trepidation from clubs regarding Polanco is understandable. In addition to the fact that he’s coming off offseason surgery, there are some worrisome signs in his performance last year even going beyond his raw production. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out just a 19.5% clip throughout his career, but his strikeouts have been steadily increasing over the last several years. He struck out at just an 18.3% clip back in 2021, which was by far the best season of his career. Since then, however, his strikeouts have climbed each season with a 21.3% figure in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 before topping out with last year’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.
It’s a worrying trend that was present even when Polanco was productive in previous years and shows little sign of turning around. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the 32nd-highest contact rate among 132 qualified hitters. That figure dropped to 73.6% last year, though, which was just 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, though it’s not the culprit of Polanco’s downturn in production on its own. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were diminished relative to 2021 as well and Polanco still managed to remain productive.
Where Polanco found success in those years but not 2024 was in the power department: his barrel rate in 2022 was a well above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. Last year, however, it dipped to just 8.9%. That’s still an above-average figure overall, but a nearly five-point drop in barrel rate is sure to sap any hitter’s power output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in just 343 plate appearances in 2023 last year saw Polanco slug just 16 homers and 11 doubles despite stepping up to the plate 136 more times than he had the year prior.
While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing power are both clear causes for concern, there is some reason for optimism as well. His 9.8% walk rate remained well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 points higher than his .287 wOBA. That suggests at least some of his lackluster campaign last year was due to poor batted ball luck, and after a season where he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s easy to imagine him being more of an average to slightly above-average hitter by that metric had his results matched more closely with the underlying metrics.
A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ in the 100-105 range can be a valuable regular even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster defense at the keystone, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being a steady, two-win regular if healthy enough to play a full season in 2025 even without his contract or power bouncing back. Between that solid floor of production at the possibility Polanco can rediscover either the power stroke or the more contact-oriented approach he found success with in previous seasons, he figures to be one of the better players available to teams in need of help at second or third base at this point in the winter—particularly for clubs that aren’t willing to commit what it would take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual basis. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are among a number of teams that could use help around the infield that Polanco could be a speculative fit for.
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