Free college basketball picks for Thursday, March 6 from proven model: Back Iowa in CBB best bets

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The 2025 NCAA Tournament is right around the corner and the intensity continues to ratchet up as we sprint towards the end of the regular season. Thursday’s college basketball schedule includes dozens of games, but only one Power 5 conference matchup between Michigan State and Iowa. The Spartans lead the Big Ten standings and are favored by 7.5 points on the road in the latest Thursday college basketball odds. However, a chance to dive deep into mid-major and small-conference action might give you an opportunity to find some value to add to your Thursday college basketball picks.

SportsLine’s proven model has simulated every Thursday college basketball game 10,000 times and revealed the best bets for every game. Combining these three picks into a college basketball parlay would result in a payout of nearly 6-1. See all the college basketball picks at SportsLine right here.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 18 of the 2024-25 season on a 221-162 betting roll (+1895) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Here are three college basketball best bets for Thursday:

Florida Atlantic vs. UAB (9 p.m. ET): FAU +4.5 (-104)

Memphis looks like the only AAC team that would earn an at-large bid in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket, but FAU and UAB both have aspirations of going on a run during the conference tournament and are still in contention for other postseason invitations. The Owls are coming off a win over South Florida on Sunday to snap a three-game losing streak, while UAB lost as favorites against Memphis its last time out. See all the model’s UAB vs. FAU picks here.

The Pick: FAU +4.5 (-104) — The Owls cover the spread in 61% of the model’s simulations
Projected final score: UAB 80, FAU 78

Bonus pick: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein is on a blistering 43-21 (+1944) roll on his college basketball picks and he’s locked in his best bet for UAB vs. FAU right here

Michigan State vs. Iowa (8 p.m. ET): Iowa +7.5 (-117)

The Spartans have piled up five consecutive Quad I wins to take a one-game lead in the Big Ten, while Iowa is at risk of finishing under .500 for just the third time in Fran McCaffery’s 15 years at the helm. However, the Hawkeyes have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 head-to-head meetings with Michigan State and upset the Spartans outright as 9.5-point underdogs in East Lansing last season. See all of the model’s Iowa vs. Michigan State picks here.

The Pick: Iowa +7.5 (-117) — The Hawkeyes cover in 61% of the model’s simulations
Projected final score: Michigan State 79, Iowa 78

Bonus pick: See Cal Poly vs. Cal State Fullerton predictions from expert Bruce Marshall, who is 39-21-1 ATS (+1560) over his last 61 college basketball picks, here.

North Texas vs. Charlotte (9 p.m. ET): Over 125.5 (-110)

Ross Hodge has the Mean Green trending in the right direction as we head towards the postseason, with North Texas winning six in a row entering Thursday’s action. Meanwhile, the Over has hit in each of Charlotte’s last five road games and North Texas games have produced at least 130 points in the Mean Green’s last two outings. See all of the model’s Charlotte vs. North Texas picks here

The Pick: Over 125.5 (-110) – The Over hits in 80% of simulations
Projected final score: North Texas 75, Charlotte 62

Bonus pick: SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is 35-17 (+1331.5) over his last 52 college basketball money line picks, has locked in his prediction for Cleveland State vs. Northern Kentucky right here

Want more college basketball picks for tonight?

You’ve seen the model’s college basketball best bets for Thursday. Now, get college basketball advice from expert Jason La Canfora, who is 37-17 (+1936) over his last 54 NCAAB picks right here.

SportsLine’s model is on a 220-160 roll on college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Visit SportsLine to get all of its college basketball picks for Thursday right here

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