Torpedo bat fervor has quelled, but the New York Yankees clubbed two more home runs on Sunday to being their total to 38, the most in baseball. On Monday, the Yankees will travel to Cleveland to take on the Guardians and the weather looks ideal for left-handed power. The latest Yankees vs. Guardians forecast projects temperatures near 70 degrees for first pitch at 6:10 p.m. ET and winds blowing out to right field at nearly 20 mph. Trent Grisham hit his sixth home run of the season yesterday and the latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list the left-handed outfielder at +450 to go yard again on Monday.
Is Grisham worth backing with your MLB home run picks? With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 13-6 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It also nailed at least one home run on five consecutive days last week and then called Elly De La Cruz (+700) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+475) to go yard on Sunday. The SportsLine Projection Model has called a HR prop in 10 of the last 13 days and is up 32.15 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Monday. These three picks can be parlayed for +19475 odds and would pay out $978.75 on a $5 bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Pete Alonso, Mets (+400)
Alonso’s a two-time Home Run Derby champion, set the MLB rookie home run record with 53 bombs in 2019, has three 40-homer seasons under his belt and has hit at least 34 home runs in every full season of his career. He’s already belted six homers in 2025 and currently leads the NL in RBI (24), slugging (.718) and OPS (1.171).
“Alonso has seen the ball out of Aaron Nola’s hands extremely well. Alonso has six home runs and a 1.117 OPS in his career against Nola. The six home runs are tied with Austin Riley for the most that Nola has allowed to an opposing batter,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at at +300 for Alonso to hit his seventh career HR off of Nola tonight.” You can find his best odds at FanDuel.
Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (+500)
p.m. update: Carpenter is not in the lineup
The 27-year-old broke out with 20 home runs in 118 games in 2023 and then hit 18 home runs in just an 87-game season in 2024. Now he’s healthy and in the Detroit lineup every day and he’s already hit five more home runs over the first 22 games of the season. He’s also seeing the ball extremely well right now, with multiple hits in five of his last nine games.
“Carpenter continues to rake against RHPs with a .959 OPS. He also likes hitting at home where he has hit 4 of his 5 HRs and has a 1.046 OPS,” Fetner said. “Randy Vasquez has been great to start the season, but he isn’t missing a ton of bats, rather he is inducing soft contact. I expect some regression and his numbers to climb a bit going forward.”
Bonus replacement pick: Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+425 BetMGM)
The model places his line at +400 and views him as a buy-low opportunity against a right-handed pitcher, Hunter Brown, who he knows well.
Mike Yastrzemski, Giants (+625)
The 34-year-old hasn’t been much of a contact guy throughout his career, but he has hit at least 15 home runs in every full season of his career. He is hitting .348 with a 1.082 OPS vs. RHPs this season, and he has been awesome at home with a 1.324 OPS in a five-game sample size.
“I didn’t expect to see Yastrzemski on our list of best HR plays today, but he has some of the best value at +420 in our model and +625 on BetMGM,” Fetner said.
Want more MLB picks for Monday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 64-29 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 10-5 on his last 13 MLB ATS picks and you can find all his latest selections here.
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