After launching a home run in a 10-3 win over Atlanta on Saturday, Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani has eight homers on the season. With a return to the pitching mound imminent, his inclusion in the NL MVP conversation once again feels inevitable. However, if you’re playing MLB home run props, it can be hard to extract value betting on Ohtani. On Sunday, the best price you can find on Ohtani to go yard in the MLB home run odds is +260 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
That said, the wind is expected to be blowing out at Truist Park and Braves starter Bryce Elder has given up six home runs in five starts this season. Should you consider adding Ohtani to your MLB home run picks despite the price because of a strong matchup? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. Now, the model has revealed its projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +16913 odds and would pay out $850-64 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+425)
Rooker broke out with 30 home runs in 2023 and then followed that campaign up with 39 home runs in 2024. Now established as the biggest threat in the Athletics lineup, he’s still managed to slug nine home runs in 34 games this season. That includes a solo home run in Miami on Saturday. On Sunday, he’ll match up with Marlins starting pitcher Edwin Cabrera, who has allowed a home run in each of his four starts and enters today with a 7.23 ERA over 18 2/3 innings. DraftKings has the best price available at +425.
Pete Alonso, Mets (+460)
The Mets play a doubleheader today, so it’s worth noting off the top that this price is for the first game against the Cardinals with first pitch scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET. It’s been a sensational season so far for Alonso, as he leads the NL in batting average (.345), on-base percentage (.473), slugging percentage (.664) and OPS (1.136).
He has eight home runs already and his 94.8 mph average exit velocity and 57.9% hard-hit contact rate (both career-highs) paint a pretty clear picture of how well he’s squaring up the ball. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde gave up 10 hits and seven earned runs in his last start and Alonso’s +460 pricing on FanDuel looks alluring even on a cool and windy day in St. Louis.
Willy Adames, Giants (+520)
Adames signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with San Francisco after posting 32 home runs, 112 RBI and 21 stolen bases (all career-highs) with the Brewers in 2024. He’s hit at least 20 home runs in each of the five full seasons he’s played in the MLB and this is a positive regression play after a slow start. Adames only has two home runs and a .602 OPS but his 88.8 mph average exit velo is above his career average and his 45.8% hard-hit contact rate is actually a career-high.
He’ll eventually adjust to Oracle Park and a matchup with Rockies righty German Marquez might be the medicine he needs right now. Marquez has a 9.82 ERA on the season and has given up 25 earned runs over his last 14 2/3 innings. FanDuel once again has the best price here on Adames to go yard.
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 90-47 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 19-14 over his last 33 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Sunday.
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