Florida State has a two-game road trip to the West Coast this week, starting with the California Golden Bears on Wednesday night. If FSU wants to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive, they likely need to become the first ACC team to sweep this two-game mini-series in California.
Cal is coming off a big win over NC State in Raleigh, something Florida State wasn’t able to do. Is that a sign of things to come?
This game will be at 9 p.m. EST/6 p.m. PST on the ACC Network, live from the Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, California.
READ MORE: FSU Basketball Controls Georgia Tech Wire-to-Wire, Wins 91-78
California Golden Bears Breakdown (9-9 Overall, 2-5 ACC)
Cal’s win over NC State on Saturday was massive, as they showed they can win on the road. Travel in college basketball has been a big story in the ACC and the Big 10. This will become a bigger discussion for FSU’s Saturday game against Stanford, but if Virginia Tech can go on the road and beat Cal, there’s no reason the Seminoles can’t do the same.
Their first season in the ACC has been a minor improvement over their final season in the PAC-12, as they’ve managed to avoid horrific losses, though losses to Virginia Tech and Cornell aren’t ideal. They’re also weirdly 2-0 in Quad 2 games, with road wins over USC and NC State, which is what Wednesday is for them, albeit at home.
There are only two things that Cal does well: get to the free-throw line and attack the offensive boards. At everything else, they’re either average or well below it; teams light them up from three, have one of the lowest assist rates in the country, don’t force a lot of turnovers, and allow a high assist rate.
Leading the way is the fourth-highest scorer in the ACC, Andrej Stojakovic. He’s the son of former NBA All-Star and Champion Peja Stojakovic and started his career at Stanford before transferring to Cal this offseason. His production has spiked considerably, going from 7.8 PPG last season as a freshman to 18.9 PPG this season. He’s far from the sharpshooter his dad was (and probably still is), but he’s still a consistent shot-maker inside the arc and gets to the free-throw line at a high rate. Stojakovic still isn’t a great playmaker, and actually has more turnovers than assists this season, but his 1-on-1 scoring is something to watch.
Jeremiah Wilkinson is Cal’s second-leading scorer at 11.7 PPG as a true freshman off the bench, some pretty impressive stuff. He averaged less than 10 MPG in the first four games but has quickly been relied upon since, averaging 14.3 PPG in 24 MPG outside of those four games. Nearly half of his shot attempts come from behind the arc, but he’s only making them at a 32.9% rate. He doesn’t really do much else outside of scoring, which is probably why he hasn’t broken into the starting lineup yet.
Jovan Blacksher Jr. is holding down the lead guard spot for now, averaging 10.7 PPG and 2.7 APG, and is one of just three consistent rotation players averaging more assists than turnovers (an absurd statement), but he still averages two turnovers per game. He had a pretty serious knee injury when he was at Grand Canyon two years ago, and you can tell he doesn’t always trust it, which is why he’s shooting more threes than ever. Being a solid shooter at nearly 35% from three and on nearly six attempts per game means he’s worth defending beyond the arc, especially since he’s their best shooter by percentage.
Those are the three players FSU will be dialed in on. BJ Omot was just ruled out for the season and was expected to be a big piece for this team.
DJ Campbell has started in the backcourt, and while he won’t be the primary option, he is coming off a season-high 13 points against NC State. Campbell hasn’t been the shooter he was at Western Carolina but that threat is always there.
Joshua Ola-Joseph transferred in from Minnesota and has been a decent scorer and rebounder, but nothing to write home about. The same goes for Rytis Petraitis.
Cal’s bigs of Mady Sissoko and Lee Dort are pretty much just there to play interior defense and grab rebounds. Sissoko comes in from Michigan State, so he has that Tom Izzo mentality in him, but I think if either of these players are taking shots, Florida State is happy.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-5 Overall, 4-3 ACC)
Florida State is coming off back-to-back double-digit home wins, and while their win over Georgia Tech could’ve been more convincing, you take double-digit conference wins any way you can get them. They’ve done a good job of avoiding any bad losses (the NC State loss isn’t good, but it’s just a Q2 loss for now). Here’s how their next six games are set up with their current quad ranking: at California (Q2), at Stanford (Q2), vs. Virginia Tech (Q4), at Boston College (Q3), vs. Notre Dame (Q3, could be Q2 soon), and at Wake Forest (Q2, could be Q1 soon). A 6-0 stretch and FSU will likely vault themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation. 5-1 with that loss coming to Wake Forest or Stanford doesn’t kill their bubble chances. 4-2 would make it an uphill climb.
A big key for FSU is whether or not Chandler Jackson is healthy. His stats aren’t flashy, but he’s their best defensive guard on the perimeter and has a knack for mid-range pop shots. He went down with an upper leg injury against Georgia Tech on Saturday and was immediately ruled out for the rest of the game. But he traveled on the trip and hasn’t been using any crutches or anything, which could be a good sign for his availability.
Malique Ewin and Jamir Watkins have emerged as two of the ten best players in the ACC, which will give them a chance in almost every game. The question for FSU is whether or not they can get help to support them consistently. Taylor Bol Bowen showed out with a 20-point performance on Saturday, and Daquan Davis has provided high-quality play occasionally. If those two can score around 10-12 PPG every game, that’s really all FSU needs.
Projected Starters
California
G: Jovan Blacksher
G: DeJuan “DJ” Campbell
G: Andrej Stojakovic
F: Rytis Petraitis
F: Madi Sissoko
Florida State
G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin
Keys to the Game
Defend 1-on-1 Without Fouling
The one area where Cal is really good is the free-throw line. 22% of their points come from the free-throw line, they average nearly 23 free-throw attempts per game, and they’re sinking them at a 74.6% clip. All of those marks are above 90th in the country. But they also have one of the lowest assist rates in the country, meaning they’re just trying to beat teams off the dribble as much as possible.
Florida State has been one of the worst fouling teams in the country, but they’ve shown they can avoid it when necessary. Just given Cal’s penchant for getting to the line and Florida State’s penchant for fouling, the Golden Bears are likely to shoot 25+ free throws. Anything under 20 would be a win for FSU.
Interior Defense
There’s no one thing you can point to and say, “If Florida State does this, they’ll win the game,” as we’ve seen in previous games. But, in general, the interior matters with Cal. They’re a below-average team inside the arc, shooting 49.7%. When they shoot better than that, they’re 6-3, and 3-6 when they shoot worse. If FSU can hold them under 47% inside the arc, it’s almost guaranteed to be a win, and Cal has been under that number against four of the better teams on their schedule. This also includes finishing possessions with a defensive rebound, as Cal is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country.
This also matters for Cal’s defense. When teams shoot better than 50% inside the arc against the Golden Bears, Cal is 2-8, compared to 7-1 when they hold teams to 50% or worse. This is even exemplified in blocks; when they block four or more shots, they’re 8-2, but when teams block three or more of their shots, they’re 2-7. Florida State is one of the ten best shot-blocking teams in the country and teams are shooting roughly 48.5% inside the arc against them, for reference.
Malique Ewin vs. Mady Sissoko
A lot of this game could come down to how well Madi Sissoko defends Malique Ewin, who has emerged as one of the ten best players in the ACC, at a minimum. Sissoko held NC State’s Ben Middlebrooks in check, but this is a much different challenge, as Ewin has four consecutive double-doubles.
Pitt’s Cam Corhen had 19 points and 11 rebounds against Cal, and he’s not as good as Ewin is. Let the big fella eat.
Game Prediction
Cal has talent, but they’ve yet to really gel. They play at whatever pace the other team wants them to play, which is music to Florida State’s ears. I expect FSU to win a close one on the road with Malique Ewin producing his fifth-straight double-double.
Florida State 77, Cal 73
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