Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt prepare to face off in the 2024 edition of the Birmingham Bowl. Here’s the latest projection for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Georgia Tech comes in at 7-5 and boasting wins against two teams ranked in the top 10 at the time of their game, including Miami, and in a bowl game for consecutive years for the first time in a decade.
Vanderbilt pulled off arguably the win of the year when it knocked off then-No. 1 Alabama, and also played Texas to a field goal loss and forced Missouri to play overtime.
What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Commodores and Yellow Jackets meet this week?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech compare in college football’s Birmingham Bowl game.
This time, the models are taking the side of the SEC team over the ACC challenger, but by an extremely close margin in this projection.
SP+ predicts that Vanderbilt will defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 28 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 1 point.
The model gives the Commodores a narrow 54 percent chance of outright victory over the Yellow Jackets.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.
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Georgia Tech is a 2.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia Tech at -140 and for Vanderbilt at +116 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
Bettors are evenly split on the outcome of this matchup, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.
Vanderbilt is getting 50 percent of the bets to either pull off the upset or keep the game under three points in a loss.
The other 50 percent of wagers project Georgia Tech will win by at least a field goal and cover the spread.
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Other analytical football models are taking a different view of this year’s Birmingham Bowl game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
That model favors Georgia Tech to win the game, coming out ahead in 52.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.
That leaves Vanderbilt as a proper contender in the game, as the presumptive winner in the remaining 47.8 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?
Georgia Tech is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
That also wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread, so your bet would still be Vanderbilt +2.5 over Georgia Tech.
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When: Fri., Dec. 27
Where: Birmingham, Ala.
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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