While the Gonzaga Bulldogs need a lot of things to break their way to catch the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the race for the West Coast Conference regular-season title, the metrics suggest it should at least be one heck of a game between the rivals on Saturday night at the Kennel.
Of course, the most important number will be the final score. Saint Mary’s comes in with a two-game lead in the WCC _ with three to play _ and can clinch a share of its third straight regular-season crown with a victory. The last thing Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and the rest of the Zags want is for their biggest rival to celebrate in the Kennel, and on Senior Night, as well. Win, and different scenarios come into play, even though the Zags would need to win out and get some help to at least share the title. Beyond the regular-season trophy, there’s seeding in the conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament at play.
NCAA NET Rankings update
The Gaels-Zags matchup came close to being a Top 20 showdown in the NCAA NET Rankings. While the Zags jumped up one spot to No. 10 in the NET Rankings after its decisive 84-63 win at Washington State on Wednesday night, the Gaels dropped three spots to No. 21 after their 79-66 home win against Portland.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses the NET Rankings as the primary sorting tool for selection and seeding for March Madness. Saturday night’s game will be a Quad 1 win for either team. Saint Mary’s (24-4, 14-1), led by Lithuanians Augustas Marciulionis and Paulius Murauskas, has won three of the last four games against the Zags (21-7, 12-3), including 62-58 at Moraga on Feb. 1.
The Gaels need two wins to clinch the title outright. After Saturday night, they end the regular season with games at Loyola Marymount and at home against Oregon State. Saint Mary’s beat both teams by double digits in their first meetings this year. Gonzaga finishes with road games against Santa Clara and San Francisco. The Zags lost at home to Santa Clara in a 103-99 shootout and won 88-77 at USF. The Gaels’ only conference loss was a one-point setback at USF.
ESPN power rankings
The Gaels jumped into the ESPN power rankings at No. 25. They have won 14 of their last 15 games. Their four losses have been by a combined 14 points.
In the most recent ESPN Bracketology projections from Joe Lunardi, both teams are slotted into the South Region: the Gaels as the No. 7 seed as the WCC’s automatic qualifier and the Zags as the eighth seed.
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