Historic teams or sign of growing disparity? What to make of four No. 1 seeds in Final Four

SAN ANTONIO – Todd Golden can still remember how the other half lives.

Florida’s coach is only three years removed from his time at San Francisco, where he was a mid-major coach punching up against a sport hardening the competitive ceiling on those programs. The transfer portal, name, image and likeness opportunities and, likely soon, revenue sharing all combine to make life ever more difficult for college basketball’s have-somes, much less its have-nots.

“I definitely see a growing disparity between the levels,” Golden said Friday. “I don’t think that’s hard to see, when you look at the numbers and see how the different teams have done over the course of the year. I think it’s kind of been trending this way for the last couple years. This may be the best example of that, the way the tournament has shaken out.”

He’s not alone in that belief. This tournament — chalky and favorite-friendly since it started — has become the latest confirming evidence of an expanding gap in college sports.

Golden’s observations are fair. But suggestions this week that this Final Four of all No. 1 seeds reflects a sport in crisis do a disservice to one of the best national semifinals in recent memory.

Excellence isn’t a vice. Time might prove the NCAA Tournament is becoming more homogenized, but this one is going to end with the four best teams in America on the floor in San Antonio. Exactly as it should be.

“These are the best four teams in college basketball,” Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said. “I don’t care who your fifth team is. I don’t care. They don’t belong here. These four teams have earned it all year long. It’s not a knock on anybody else. It’s a compliment to all these teams, all these coaches and programs.”

Both things can be true. The middle ground might be boring, but it’s also fair.

It is becoming harder for teams outside the calcifying moneyed elite to remain competitive, when their rosters can be picked through every spring by programs with better resources and bigger stages.

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Golden’s perspective is valid — he had to pull San Francisco up against stalwarts in his own conference (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s), much less a wider landscape increasingly unforgiving to programs like that. Florida’s third-year coach is the only one of the four here this weekend who’s seen both sides of these questions in the modern game.

But if his words carry weight in one direction, they should in the other. And he’s equally right in classifying this field as elite.

“I truly believe the four best teams in college basketball are here this weekend,” Golden said. “Even though there maybe weren’t as many exciting upsets or storylines that way, I think the fact that all four of the best teams in college basketball all year long making it this far is a great storyline as well.”

It’s difficult to argue otherwise.

This year marks the first time since 2008 a Final Four is composed entirely of No. 1 seeds. But not every No. 1 is created equal.

Not only are Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn (in order) the top four teams nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s net rating ranking, they are comfortably so. The gap in Pomeroy’s metrics from No. 1 to No. 4 is actually slightly narrower than the gap from No. 5 to No. 6.

By the same numbers, that foursome is historic. KenPom’s database stretches as far back as the 1996-97 season. These four teams are among its 10 highest-rated in that period.

Duke and Houston each won their regular-season and conference tournament titles. Auburn won the SEC in the regular season. Florida won the SEC tournament.

And a chalky tournament across the board has increased the difficulty of their respective paths to San Antonio. None of this weekend’s semifinalists played a team seeded worse than No. 5 in the Sweet Sixteen, or No. 3 in the Elite Eight. Three of the four beat their region’s No. 2 seed to get here. Houston became the first No. 1 since 2017 North Carolina to take the most difficult possible path, defeated the Nos. 16, 8, 4 and 2 seeds on the way to the Alamodome.

“It’s good for college basketball,” Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson said Sunday, after dispatching Tennessee in the Elite Eight. “Whoever wins the games in the semifinals on Saturday, whoever wins those, it’s going to be an unbelievable game on Monday.”

One year doesn’t guarantee a trend. And even if the field is tilting toward high-major teams long term (it is), they will not often be made quite like this.

Wider perception of this tournament so far has painted it as a bit of a dud, but the bracket sorted itself out in the end. Saturday night might be generational.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on X: @ZachOsterman.

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