It’s time for teams to start cramming for the final exam known as Selection Sunday. As March dawns on college basketball, the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal is just over two weeks away, and so much is still up in the air with respect to who will fill the 68-team field.
The nation’s top squads have solidified their spots as at-large teams, and conference tournament action will determine who claims a number of the automatic bids. But for the chunk of teams living life on the bubble, it’s do-or-die time.
How you’re playing lately isn’t a metric the selection committee provides. But how you’re playing lately impacts your resume as a whole, and some teams are clearly trending in the right direction. Just look at Boise State, for example. The Broncos are two games out of first in the Mountain West standings but charging hard in the right direction amid a three-game winning streak.
Then, on the other end of the spectrum, there is Baylor. The Bears began the season ranked No. 8 in the AP poll but have slipped to “first four out” territory amid a three-game losing streak that has underscored season-long inconsistency for a program that had emerged as a preeminent Big 12 power in recent years.
As we enter another loaded weekend of college basketball, here’s the temperature check for some of the sport’s most prominent bubble teams.
🔥🔥🔥 = trending aggressively in the right direction
🔥🔥 = moving up
🔥 = not messing it up
🧊 = cooling off
🧊🧊 = moving in the wrong direction
🧊🧊🧊 = careening off the rails
Boise State🔥🔥🔥
Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four In)
Record: 20-8 (12-5 Mountain West)
Boise State has pulled itself up to “last four in” territory in Jerry Palm’s Bracketology following three straight wins against some of the Mountain West’s top competition. The Broncos have won seven of their past eight games since a 5-4 start to conference play, and their only loss in that span is of the Quad 1 variety at San Diego State. After making it to two NCAA Tournaments in his first 11 seasons, Boise State coach Leon Rice has the Broncos on the verge of going dancing in four straight years.
Vanderbilt🔥🔥
Bracketology projection: No. 8 seed
Record: 19-9 (7-8 SEC)
An absence of marquee nonconference wins meant the Commodores would have to do more in a brutal SEC than some of their peers to reach the right side of the bubble. Mission accomplished, it appears. Vanderbilt may have plated its resume in gold with a gutsy Quad 1 win at Texas A&M on Wednesday, as the Commodores improved to 19-9 (7-8 SEC) under first-year coach Mark Byington. With winnable games against Missouri, Arkansas and Georgia still ahead, the ‘Dores have a chance to keep rising.
Xavier🔥
Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four In)
Record: 18-10 (10-7 Big East)
Xavier has won four straight. Here’s the problem: the four wins came against the bottom four teams in the Big East standings. A Jan. 25 home victory over UConn remains the Musketeers’ only victory against a projected NCAA Tournament team. Taking down Creighton at home on Saturday would go a long way toward securing a spot in the dance for coach Sean Miller’s club.
Arkansas🔥
Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed
Record: 17-11 (6-9 SEC)
Arkansas is 6-4 over its past 10 games since an 0-5 start to SEC play. Consecutive wins over Missouri and Texas have the Razorbacks in the projected field and outside of “last four in” territory entering an SEC road game against last-place South Carolina on Saturday. The Razorbacks’ closing stretch also includes Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, which gives coach John Calipari’s club a fighting chance at entering the postseason with momentum.
North Carolina🔥
Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 18-11 (11-6 ACC)
North Carolina has won four straight games with its back against the wall, but those wins are just empty calories. Three of them were in Quad 3 and the other was Quad 2. UNC remains just 1-10 in Quad 1 and only has one more Q1 game on the docket — the regular season finale against No. 2 Duke — before the ACC Tournament. The next two are in Quad 4 (vs. Miami) and Quad 3 (at Virginia Tech). Even if UNC handles the Hurricanes and Hokies to enter the Duke showdown on a six-game winning streak, it could still need a win to salvage its at-large hopes.
Indiana🔥
Bracketology projection: No. 11 seed (Last Four In)
Record: 17-11 (8-9 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers’ tournament hopes looked moribund not long ago following a stretch of seven losses in eight games. But Indiana has scurried back to “last four in” territory with three wins over its last four games under lame-duck head coach Mike Woodson. The next few days are massive for the Hoosiers, who are making their only West Coast road trip of the season to face Washington on Saturday and Oregon on Tuesday.
Nebraska 🧊
Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed
Record: 17-11 (7-10 Big Ten)
Nebraska is a minor funk after consecutive losses at Penn State and against Michigan. Prior to the skid, the Cornhuskers won five of six to revive their NCAA Tournament chances. Now, a Saturday home game with Minnesota looks like a must-win if they wish to avoid a painful regression to the cut line. Considering this team once endured a six-game losing streak, things are going OK. But the past week has left Nebraska without much breathing room.
Oklahoma🧊🧊
Bracketology projection: No. 10 seed
Record: 17-11 (4-11 SEC)
Oklahoma squandered a golden opportunity to earn consecutive victories when it fell 83-82 to Kentucky on Wednesday. The Sooners are just 4-11 in SEC play and have dropped six of their past seven. Though OU remains in Palm’s projected field as a No. 10 seed, this team could be the ultimate case study in the selection committee’s willingness to include an at-large team with a bad conference record. Even if the Sooners win two of their final three, they will still be just 6-12 in the SEC.
Texas🧊🧊
Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 16-12 (5-10 SEC)
The Longhorns have dropped five of their past six games and most recently squandered a 39-point effort from freshman phenom Tre Johnson in an 86-81 overtime loss at Arkansas. Home games against fellow bubble teams Georgia and Oklahoma are among the Longhorns’ final three contests prior to the SEC Tournament. In between is a road showdown with Mississippi State. It would behoove Texas to win two of those three if it wants to escape “first four out territory” entering the SEC Tournament.
Wake Forest🧊🧊🧊
Bracketology projection: Next Four Out
Record: 19-9 (11-6 ACC)
The Wake Forest roller-coaster ride is officially off the rails after a Quad 2 loss at NC State last Saturday and a Quad 3 loss to Virginia on Wednesday. Those defeats undid all the progress the Demon Deacons made in a rare ACC Quad 1 victory at SMU on Feb. 15. Throw in a Quad 3 home loss to Florida State on Feb. 12, and Wake Forest has lost three of four games at exactly the wrong time. It’s particularly maddening for a program that has regularly flirted with the Big Dance under fifth-year coach Steve Forbes while also ending up on the wrong side of the bubble.
Baylor🧊🧊🧊
Bracketology projection: First Four Out
Record: 16-12 (8-9 Big 12)
Baylor is in a free-fall, having dropped three straight games. Among the Bears’ blemishes is a loss at lowly Colorado, which entered at 1-14 in conference action. That’s unbecoming of a team that wishes to go dancing. A Quad 3 home win over Oklahoma State on Saturday won’t move the needle for a team that has slipped to “first four out” territory in Jerry Palm’s Bracketology. Suddenly, a streak of five straight NCAA Tournament appearance feels very much in jeopardy.
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