This is what everyone waited for, right?
Yeah, about that; prepare to possibly wait some more.
For months, April 7 has been the magic target in the erstwhile saga that is the NCAA-House Settlement arrangement, a landmark item that’s poised to usher in unprecedented compensation for collegiate student-athletes.
Schools that opt-in to the projected House Settlement agreement can participate in revenue-sharing among their student-athletes, with maximum distribution of $20.5 million in Year 1. If formally pushed forward by Wilken, it is set to increase by 4% each of the following two years.
But, a moment literally decades in the making – from O’Bannon to now – appears set for a few more moments. Or, perhaps, more.
Myriad sources tell FootballScoop that while U.S. Federal Judge Claudia Wilken is poised to rule on the matter today in her Oakland, California, courtroom, the expectation is that, well, like all things NCAA and student-athlete empowered, expect another delay.
“Would doubt anything (today),” a high-ranking collegiate official told FootballScoop late Sunday night.
Added an NCAA Division I head coach, “Nobody knows. It changes by the day. You know better than me.
A group of five AD told FootballScoop, “I’m not expecting clarity Monday.”
“What I can tell you, we have contingency plans.”
Which consist of? On this, FootballScoop spoke with more than a half-dozen representatives of schools primarily in Power Conferences but also down to the FCS level.
Among items in process, being discussed or expected:
Additional lawsuits, regardless of what Wilken does/does not do. Notable sports lawyer Darren Heitner, a significant player in the Name, Image and Likeness space, indicated over the weekend his intention to push forth a new lawsuit; he also said he doesn’t expect a judgment today from Wilken.
Also, schools already are preparing to manage their sports – especially their football rosters – with plans in place for the House Settlement’s passing, as well as for another delay.
A ratification of the plan means changes for a number of sports, but it most visibly impacts college football and the sport’s roster size. The sport’s largest programs have carried approximately 120-man rosters, but the House Settlement, as part of revenue distribution terms, caps the football roster size at 105 players.
What are schools doing? Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is a trendsetter, and a noble one at that: he already, with his staff, informed players back in December if their roster spots could not be guaranteed.
Other places? They’re making plans now.
One prominent FBS assistant coach told FootballScoop this week:
“Every day on the practice field, I just yell 105! We are constantly reminding these guys,” he said. “It’s not funny. We don’t like it, but that’s the reality we all have, so we aren’t going to hide from it.”
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman on Saturday said, “We have a plan, depending on how the Settlement is determined here next week. We have a plan. I’m not spending much time thinking about it until they make a decision. You have to make some difficult decisions in terms of cutting the roster to 105, because you care about every person.”
The proposed settlement and timeline has wildly impacted the NCAA’s college basketball Transfer Portal, which is in full swing regardless of tonight’s NCAA Tournament championship that pits Florida against Houston.
But, college football remains the primary revenue sport.
“We have contingencies in place,” a head coach told FootballScoop. “We are telling guys, ‘You get this, if the House Settlement passes. This is only if the House Settlement passes.’ It’s an entirely different story if it doesn’t pass before July 1.
“And, I’m going to be honest with you: Nobody knows what that looks like.”
Added another ranking collegiate official to FootballScoop, “Hopefully something [in terms of a ruling] by the end of the week. Part of the process. (Wilken) is in no hurry.”
Still, the settlement is much more than dollars for student-athletes and budget impacts for the schools. It has far-reaching projected impacts on everything from the NCAA calendar in 2025-26, particularly with football, to the grant-in-aids being signed that have “House Settlement approved” and “House Settlement undetermined” clauses.
It might mean further expediting the NCAA Transfer Portal, for college football, anyway, into a single Portal window.
“December or January doesn’t make a lot of sense,” a coach told FootballScoop. “February could happen.
“The athletes have the leverage. If it’s February, spring ball is done. You�’re looking at OTAs (Organized Team Activities).”
For now, we all wait. Judge Wilken’s hearing is scheduled to begin at 10am PST.
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