ENGLEWOOD — Will Bo Nix avoid a sophomore slump in his second NFL season?
The answer will define how far the Broncos go in 2025 and beyond.
It’s a simple concept. NFL starting quarterbacks in their second year, historically, have potential to regress — especially after a breakout rookie season. How will Nix respond?
“Each season you get to start over, and you get to start from square one,” Nix said last week during organized team activities at Broncos Park. “It’s all about getting the body back right and taking a mental break from the game. Now when you pick it back up, you feel a little more rejuvenated and a little more — I guess, ‘fresh’ is the term. You’re not going all season long. I feel good and feel like I am in a good spot. Body feels good. And mentally, I’m sharp right now. We’re going to carry that into the season.”
Past examples
C.J. Stroud is the latest big-name quarterback to endure a sophomore slump.
The Texans QB was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 after passing for more than 4,000 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. He led Houston from worst to first in the AFC South and won a playoff game. His momentum stalled in his second season.
In 2024, Stroud threw fewer touchdowns (20) with more interceptions (12) and a drop in passing yards (3,727) in comparison to his breakout rookie campaign.
A few more notable sophomore slumps from recent NFL quarterbacks include:
—Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 2017): Prescott’s completion percentage dropped nearly 5 points while throwing nine more interceptions after his rookie year.
—Sam Bradford (Rams, 2011): Bradford went 1-9 as a starter with only six touchdown passes before injury derailed his second NFL season.
—Matt Ryan (Falcons, 2009): Ryan’s completion percentage dropped below 60 percent with less than 3,000 yards passing after a more impressive rookie year.
There is no single answer to determine why a second-year quarterback might struggle. Opposing defenses have more tape to exploit weaknesses. But a quarterback’s failure is typically linked to the quality of play calling, pass protection and supporting cast of skill positions.
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Broncos history
There are no clear-cut examples of sophomore slumps for ex-Broncos quarterbacks.
The franchise has actually experienced a sophomore QB surge.
In 1984, John Elway more than doubled his passing touchdowns (18) and led Denver to a 12-2 record as the starter in his second season.
In 2000, Brian Griese was named a Pro Bowler in his second year as the full-time starter with a league-leading 102.9 passer rating.
In 2008, Jay Cutler also earned a Pro Bowl nod after Year 2 as the starting quarterback with 4,526 yards passing.
Path to success
Several factors should contribute to helping Nix avoid the sophomore slump in 2025.
One of his best traits as a rookie, according to coach Sean Payton, was calmness under pressure to mostly avoid game-changing mistakes in key moments. Nix’s ability to improvise, especially using his legs, can overcome potential execution or play-calling errors.
“It’s not always a clean pocket,” Payton said. “I think when it gets a little muddy, he makes good decisions. He doesn’t hold onto the ball. His sack numbers were really good in college, (and) they were really good last year. We anticipate that to be the same.”
There is also an unusual consistency supporting Nix entering Year 2. Payton returns as the play caller. The entire starting offensive line returns. Courtland Sutton leads a young and improving wide receiver corps that gained chemistry with Nix last season.
“It’s a lot better and a lot more enjoyable not thinking right now as opposed to what I was doing last year,” Nix said. “It’s fun to be in the know and it’s fun to have a little more of an understanding of what’s going on, so I can be a little more beneficial to others and help them out along the way. I feel good. We’re in a good spot.”
Nix has also played a role in the Broncos filling needs in free agency. On Thursday, tight end Evan Engram explained how the young quarterback influenced his decision to sign in Denver.
“The potential is through the roof,” Engram said of Nix. “Even better is just (who) he is as a man, as a worker and as a leader. It’s been really great to get to know him on and off the field. I just love the way he approaches each and every day. I love the way he builds relationships with his teammates.
“I had lunch with him on my visit here. So, he made it a point to be here and meet me. Even that lunch, I was able to just kind of listen to his process and things that he’s working on. Just a really impressive young guy.”
The Broncos must address 2024 shortcomings at running back and tight end to give Nix all the tools to succeed. A sophomore slump is possible. But the 25-year-old quarterback exudes self-confidence as the team’s offseason program continues.
“You don’t want to get to Year 2 or go down the road, and all of a sudden, you got stuck and didn’t get any better,” Nix said. “So, that’s my focus right now. It’s not even worrying about what people say. Just internally, I know I have a long way to go.”
