We’ve debated on our Fantasy Football Today podcast the relevance to the NFL schedule. My colleagues don’t really care that much about it, figuring that defenses change from week to week and that a good defense in Week 1 might not be as good by Week 4. Or a defense will emerge in Week 8 and finish the season strong.
But my argument is that if matchups mean something in Fantasy, then obviously the schedule matters because it sets up the matchups. I just wouldn’t sink serious draft prep into the schedule and build a plan for your team around it.
Wouldn’t you rather pick players on a team that faces the Colts, Jaguars and Titans defenses twice each than, say, the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs twice each?
No, I’m not saying to take Joe Mixon over Ashton Jeanty, or Dalton Schultz over Brock Bowers.
But I am saying that, if given the decision between two players you consider equal, you should take the team with the easier slate of opponents. Maybe you should take Christian Kirk over Jakobi Meyers, or C.J. Stroud over Geno Smith.
I consider anything related to the schedule as tiebreaker information. When faced between two players, go with the one with the easier schedule. It only makes sense.
Unless matchups don’t mean anything to you, in which case the rest of your league probably loves having you play with them.
The bye weeks
When I draft, I always keep tabs on who I take and when their byes are. I won’t let bye weeks keep me from taking a great value, but I might use it as a tiebreaker if I’m debating between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ladd McConkey, and I already have Brian Thomas Jr. on my team.
There’s more to it than that: This year, the NFL has one week where six teams are on bye, cruelly called a “byenado” around these parts. If you draft too many players with a Week 8 bye, you’re essentially creating a headache for yourself before Halloween. Rule No. 5 of Fantasy Football: Don’t draft headaches.
The NFL also put four teams on bye in Week 14. The league has moved to an 18-game schedule and most Fantasy managers have adjusted by starting the playoffs in Week 14. If your league hasn’t adjusted, STOP READING THESE WORDS AND TELL YOUR COMMISH TO CHANGE THAT. If your league has adjusted, then the pain in the butt that is fielding a Week 14 lineup is easier than it was last year, but a pain nonetheless.
Week 5: Bears, Falcons, Packers, Steelers
Week 8: Bucs, Cardinals, Jaguars, Lions, Raiders, Seahawks
Week 9: Browns, Eagles, Jets, Rams
Week 10: Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Titans
Week 11: Colts, Saints
Week 12: Broncos, Chargers, Commanders, Dolphins
Week 13: Thanksgiving
Week 14: 49ers, Giants, Panthers, Patriots
You don’t need a graduate degree to recognize which weeks will be tough on Fantasy managers. Week 8 for obvious reasons, but also Week 10 will leave us without many good starters. And don’t discount the dual-week byes for AFC contenders Buffalo and Baltimore — a lot of firepower on those squads.
Road Trippin’
These are the teams that play three road games in a row, or have three road games in four weeks that are tough.
Bengals: Three of first four games are on the road at the Browns in the opener, at the Vikings in Week 3 and at the Broncos in Week 4. Tough defenses.
Patriots: Three straight on the road at Bills, at Saints, at Titans in Weeks 5 through 7.
Ravens: Three straight on the road at Dolphins, at Vikings, at Browns in Weeks 9 through 11.
Titans: Three straight on the road at Texans, at Cardinals, at Raiders in Weeks 4 through 6.
Saints: Three straight on the road at Falcons, Dolphins and Buccaneers after their Week 11 bye. That’s all the more reason to buy into the under on their team total prop on Draft Kings Sportsbook.
Home cookin’
These are the teams that play three home games in a row.
Bengals: Three straight at home against the Steelers, Jets and Bears before their Week 10 bye.
Bills: Four of first five games are at home, three consecutively against the Dolphins, Saints and Patriots.
Buccaneers: Three straight at home against the Cardinals, Saints and Falcons in Weeks 13 through 15.
Chiefs: Three straight at home against the Lions, Raiders and Commanders in Weeks 6 through 8.
Jets: Three straight at home against the Cowboys, Broncos and Panthers in Weeks 5 through 7.
Lions: Three straight at home against the Giants, Packers and Cowboys in Weeks 12 through 14.
Ravens: Not one but two home stretches where they won’t leave town — first Weeks 5 through 8 versus the Texans, Rams, a bye, then the Bears; and again in Weeks 13 through 15 against the Jets, the Bengals on Thanksgiving and the Steelers. That’s great for a certain over-30-year-old running back.
Texans: Three straight at home against the 49ers, Broncos and Jaguars in Weeks 8 through 10.
Titans: Three straight at home against the Texans, Seahawks and Jaguars after their Week 10 bye.
The Fantasy Playoffs
I know why you’re really here. You want to know who has the best and worst schedules for the final three weeks of the Fantasy season, generally Week 15 through 17. Admittedly, I don’t love this information because defenses that look good or bad in May might look bad or good come December, but if you swear by late-season schedules then you’ll dig this.
49ers: vs. Titans, at Colts, vs. Bears, and all after a Week 14 bye
Bills: at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles — challenging.
Buccaneers: vs. Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins — another big beautiful Baker Mayfield run to close the year?
Commanders: at Giants, vs. Eagles, vs. Cowboys — divisionals.
Jets: at Jaguars, at Saints, vs. Patriots — pretty good.
Packers: at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens — two tough defenses and a bitter rival.
Patriots: vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets — Nasty!
Saints: vs. Panthers, vs. Jets, at Titans — maybe the silver lining to their season.
Seahawks: vs. Colts, vs. Rams, at Panthers — a fine finish for Sam Darnold?
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