OU plays football in 195 days. It’s wayyy too early to make any predictions, much less do game-by-game breakdowns. We don’t know what OU’s final roster is going to look like. We don’t even know the rules of the game!
By the way, this is Thunder season. And don’t you dare distract from college softball. Our women’s college basketball teams are jostling for NCAA Tournament seeding, and men’s college basketball exists. Theoretically.
But football is always on the mind in Oklahoma. Even in frigid February.
New offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer are still unpacking their PODS container from Pullman, Washington, but what the heck, let’s have a little fun.
Here are my ridiculously early OU football predictions for 2025:
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OU vs. Illinois State, Aug. 30
Illinois State was one of 24 teams to make the FCS playoffs last season. The Redbirds finished 10-4, including 6-2 in the Missouri Valley. Iowa was the only FBS team on Illinois State’s schedule. The Hawkeyes blanked the Redbirds 40-0. Brock Spack is entering his 17th season as Illinois State’s coach.
No need to dive deep into this matchup. It’s a tune-up game.
Prediction: OU 49, Illinois State 7 (1-0)
OU vs. Michigan, Sept. 6
Former Sooner offensive lineman Sherrone Moore is entering Year 2 as the head man at Michigan after an up-and-down 8-5 debut. The Wolverines finished the season strong, though, with an improbable win at Ohio State and a bowl victory against Alabama.
Michigan has the sixth-ranked 2025 recruiting class, according to the 247 Sports composite, highlighted by quarterback Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall prospect. Underwood and Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene are expected to compete for the starting quarterback job.
Michigan is adding a ton of talent, but the Wolverines are light on experience. Even more so if Underwood wins the starting job.
The storied programs have only met once before, a 14-6 Sooner victory in the 1975 Orange Bowl. It vaulted the Sooners to No. 1 in the polls, giving OU its fifth national championship.
It should be an awesome atmosphere in Norman. I’ll give the nod to the home team.
Prediction: OU 23, Michigan 20 (2-0)
OU at Temple, Sept. 13
The Sooners beat the Owls 51-3 in Norman last season. Temple went 3-9, firing coach Stan Drayton after three seasons. In comes K.C. Keeler, who spent 11 seasons as the head coach at Sam Houston State and 11 seasons before that at Delaware. It’s a homecoming for Keeler, a Pennsylvania native.
Temple plays only once at home in its first six games, and it’s against OU. This probably won’t be a good game, but a weekend in Philadelphia makes for a nice trip for Sooners fans.
Prediction: OU 55, Temple 9 (3-0)
OU vs. Auburn, Sept. 20
The Sooners beat the Tigers 27-21 last season at Auburn — one of OU’s two SEC victories. Auburn hasn’t had a winning season since 2020, when it went 6-5. Gus Malzahn was fired after that season, Bryan Harsin lasted not even two years and now Hugh Freeze is on the hot seat.
Freeze’s fate might lie in the hands of OU transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold. Arnold has talent, but he’s prone to mind-numbing mistakes. The Sooners need Washington State transfer John Mateer to outplay Arnold in this one.
To help Arnold, Auburn signed two of the top-10 players in the portal, according to 247Sports: wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. from Georgia Tech and tackle Xavier Chaplin from Virginia Tech.
Beating Auburn at home to open the SEC slate is a must for Brent Venables and the Sooners.
Prediction: OU 28, Auburn 17 (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
OU vs. Kent State, Oct. 4
The third of three snoozers in the Sooners’ first five games. Temple was one of the worst teams in the FBS last season. Kent State was worse.
The Golden Flash went 0-12. Kent State is a combined 1-23 in the last two seasons, and that lone victory came against the Blue Devils — not of Duke, but of Central Connecticut State.
Prediction: OU 70, Kent State 7 (5-0)
OU vs. Texas (Dallas), Oct. 11
The Sooners basically have back-to-back bye weeks (sorry, Kent State) to prepare for the Longhorns. Texas, meanwhile, plays at Florida the week before the Red River Rivalry. Rest advantage: Sooners.
One of the few advantages OU will have.
Texas will and should be heavily favored. The Longhorns have blown out the Sooners in two of the last three meetings, including a 34-3 Texas win last season.
Texas, fresh off a College Football Playoff semifinals appearance, is welcoming in the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class. And it’s finally Arch Manning time in Austin. This could be Manning’s first and only start against OU, assuming Manning declares for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. will lead what figures to be another elite Texas defense.
Prediction: Texas 34, OU 19 (5-1, 1-1 SEC)
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OU at South Carolina, Oct. 18
This game was over in the first five minutes last season as OU went turnover, turnover, turnover on its first three drives. Michael Hawkins Jr. was benched and in came Arnold.
Reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year Kyle Kennard is gone, but the Gamecocks return another elite edge rusher in Dylan Stewart. South Carolina could again have one of the best defenses in the SEC.
And then there’s LaNorris Sellers to deal with on the other side of the ball. The sophomore quarterback is going to enter the season with Heisman buzz, and rightfully so.
This will be OU’s first trip to Columbia, South Carolina. Once “Sandstorm” starts playing, look out. Williams-Brice Stadium offers one of the best atmospheres in the SEC, and former Sooner assistant Shane Beamer will make sure it’s rockin’.
Prediction: South Carolina 31, OU 21 (5-2, 1-2 SEC)
Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin has won at least 10 games in three of the past four seasons. The Rebels, which beat the Sooners 26-14 last season in Oxford, Mississippi, fell just short of making the 12-team College Football Playoff.
But Ole Miss could take a step back this season. Jaxson Dart, the school’s all-time leading passer, is gone. So is defensive tackle Walter Nolen, a projected first-round NFL Draft pick.
Ole Miss has reloaded via the transfer portal — a portal class that ranks second nationally, according to 247Sports. Ole Miss beefed up in the trenches by adding former Arkansas tackle Patrick Kutas and former Nebraska edge rusher Princewill Umanmielan — both ranked as top-20 players in the portal.
After back-to-back losses to Texas and South Carolina, this would be a stabilizing win for the Sooners.
Prediction: OU 24, Ole Miss 23 (6-2, 2-2 SEC)
OU at Tennessee, Nov. 1
It all comes down to Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He was overhyped last season, but maybe this is the year he takes a superstar leap. He’ll have to do it without his top three receivers from a year ago, who either graduated or transferred: Dont’e Thornton Jr., Bru McCoy and Squirrel White.
Running back Dylan Sampson, the SEC Offensive Player of the Year, is an even bigger loss for the Vols.
Defensively, Tennessee will have to replace edge rusher James Pearce Jr., a projected first-round NFL Draft pick.
A decade ago, Baker Mayfield led OU to a comeback, double-overtime win at Tennessee. Maybe Mateer, another Texas-born transfer, can replicate Sooner Magic on Rocky Top.
Prediction: OU 35, Tennessee 31 (7-2, 3-2 SEC)
OU at Alabama, Nov. 15
Think Alabama will have revenge on its mind after suffering a 24-3 spanking last November in Norman?
You betcha. But the Crimson Tide still has some things to figure out in Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer. Chief among them, who the heck is going to be the quarterback? Right now it’s a three-man race between junior Ty Simpson, redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and five-star freshman Keelon Russell.
Whoever wins the job will have racked up plenty of reps by the time the Sooners come to town.
Prediction: Alabama 28, OU 20 (7-3, 3-3 SEC)
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OU vs. Missouri, Nov. 22
More like the Missouri Paper Tigers, amirite?
Mizzou wasn’t any good last year, but that didn’t stop OU from finding a way to lose.
After back-to-back tough road games, this should be a nice homecoming (actual Homecoming is the Ole Miss game) for the Sooners.
OU improves to 6-0 at Owen Field.
Prediction: OU 33, Missouri 23 (8-3, 4-3 SEC)
OU vs. LSU, Nov. 29
The Tigers brought in the No. 1 portal class in the nation, per 247Sports. Among LSU’s additions are former Sooner receiver Nic Anderson and former Sooner tight end Bauer Sharp.
If the Tigers let Sharp throw the ball (if you know, you know), I like the Sooners’ chances. If not, the Sooners are in trouble.
LSU loaded up on both sides of the ball, and it has a returning star in quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
The Tigers could be playing for an SEC Championship or College Football Playoff bid when they roll into Norman.
Prediction: LSU 41, OU 28 (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
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