When evaluating the top of the 2025 college draft class, there is still some uncertainty. There is still plenty of season for prospects to make some moves, but one part of the class that is seemingly written in pen is Jamie Arnold as one of the top pitchers in the class. Arnold is coming off a 2024 season, where he pitched to a 2.98 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 105.2 IP, while only walking 26 batters. So far this year, that domination has continued as he is pitching to a 1.13 ERA with 24 strikeouts and only two walks in 16 IP. Arnold is dominating college hitters with a combination of impressive stuff and above-average strike-throwing ability.
Jamie Arnold: A Burgeoning Ace
Two Plus Pitches
When evaluating Arnold, it is impossible to talk about him without mentioning his Fastball. The pitch does not light up a radar gun but has shown flashes of dominance. In the 2024 season, the pitch has only averaged 93.7 mph, topping out at 95.4, but it has still generated a 29.4% whiff rate. The pitch is even more effective when thrown in the upper third of the zone. The pitch generated an insane 47.7% whiff rate at the top of the zone, with a 34.5% chase rate. That shows not only how hard it is for hitters to make contact with the pitch, but also the allusion it creates, causing them to swing at pitches they normally wouldn’t.
The reason Arnold’s fastball is so good in the upper third of the zone is because of his low release point. Arnold throws from a lower 3/4 release, which creates the illusion that the pitch is rising to the hitter. The pitch does not have elite traits, with only 10.1 inches of Induced Vertical Break, but it features an above average -4.30 Vertical Approach Angle. The lack of velocity and elite shape explains why the pitch does have a tendency to get hit when located down in the zone, but when located at the top of the zone, it is a plus pitch.
While Arnold’s fastball is impressive, the Slider might be his best pitch. During the 2024 season, the pitch generated a solid 41.8% whiff rate, but that number has improved significantly to a 58.1% whiff rate. On top of the swing and miss, it is also causing hitters to expand the zone a ton. Hitters are swinging at 61.5% of Sliders out of the zone. The ability to attack hitters with the Fastball at the top of the zone, and the slider off of it, forces hitters to be in serious conflict and leads to a ton of swing and miss, and uncomfortable at bats.
Command of the Strike Zone
Another part of Arnold’s game that makes him special is his strike throwing ability. It is one thing to have elite stuff, but we have seen so many pitchers struggle at the next level as hitters become more disciplined and the strike zone becomes smaller. Arnold has shown the ability to throw a ton of strikes over the last two seasons. In 2024, he finished the season with a 5.8% walk rate, and this season, that number has improved to 3.5%. He has also seen an increase in his In-Zone%, so there is solid intent in the strike zone.
For a pitcher generating so much swing and miss, it is easy to imagine there is a large component of his game reliant on chase. As previously mentioned, the Fastball at the top of the zone, and the slider in general, generate a ton of chase. But it’s the intent of the chase that is impressive. Getting ahead of hitters and then exposing them out of the strike zone is a massive part of the “art of pitching” that Arnold does very well.
Will the 3rd Pitch Develop?
The main question mark surrounding Arnold was the development of a third pitch. The change-up in 2024 was below average by any measure. Hitters batted .333 against the pitch, and it generated an 18.8% whiff rate, and only an 11.1% chase rate. For Arnold to push against reliever risk, the development of a third pitch would be a huge asset to him. The results so far in 2025 have been promising.
It seems Arnold added a Splitter in the offseason. He has only thrown 16 total, but they have generated a 50% whiff rate. The command of the pitch is not ideal, but the movement profile grades out above some MLB splitters in recent years.
https://twitter.com/JacobE_STL/status/1890810881228853595
It is a small sample size, and there is a lot of development he still needs, but the early look is promising. If he can develop a Splitter that he can use to keep hitters off balance, the Fastball/Slider combo is already good enough to be effective.
Conclusion
Arnold has some stiff competition for top pitcher in the 2025 class, with the rise of Liam Doyle, which I wrote about here. With that said, the consistent dominance will give Arnold a leg up. He came into the season as the top pitching prospect, and has only shown improvements in quality of stuff and strike-throwing ability. Knowing that he will enter the draft with two dominant seasons, compared to Doyle’s one, will make some MLB organizations comfortable with his track record of success. It will be a fun race for the top pitcher in the class, and both are must-see TV every time they step on the mound.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
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