
Happy Monday, everyone. Saturday turned out to be quite profitable for the Tide, both within the SEC and the next College Football Playoff ranking. The path to Atlanta is clear, and pretty likely, for the Tide.
If Alabama wins out and beats both Oklahoma and Auburn, the Crimson Tide needs Missouri to win one of its final two against either Mississippi State or Arkansas, according to mred’s SEC football standings tiebreaker tracker.
If Missouri wins both games, Alabama would have an advantage over Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and either Texas or Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage.
Missouri is currently favored by a touchdown on Saturday in Starkville. If they lose both of their final two games, then Georgia would go to the SEC Championship Game based on opponent win percentage.
As Nick Kelly notes, winning the SEC Championship secures a first round bye.
If Alabama makes the SEC Championship Game, as it looks likely, it has a chance to secure a first-round bye. By doing so, it also would not have to play a true road game in the first round of the playoff. Right now, it will be a challenge for Alabama to land a first-round home playoff game at Bryant-Denny Stadium because of the likelihood of an SEC Championship Game appearance; If Alabama loses the title game, it will have three losses and all but certainly play on the road if it makes the CFP. Impossible for a home playoff game with three losses? No. But it appears more unlikely than not at this juncture.
So it’s best to operate under the idea that Alabama either plays a first-round CFP game on the road or wins the conference and secures a first-round bye, not playing until the quarterfinals.
While I have always been of the belief that winning the SEC Championship means something, and in fact am not a fan of this playoff nonsense to begin with, it’s pretty easy to see the argument in favor of rooting for Mizzou to lose twice. It’s very likely that the Alabama is in the top 8 on Tuesday after both 6th-ranked BYU and 7th-ranked Tennessee lost and Louisville, which was 9th-ranked Miami’s only ranked win, lost to three-win Stanford.
If Alabama can finish in the Top 8 without playing in the SEC Championship Game, they will play one fewer game than the team that loses in Atlanta, and host what would likely be another SEC team in lieu of playing one in Atlanta. A win in either scenario gets them to a neutral site game in the quarterfinals and there isn’t much separation among potential top 8 opponents. A loss in Atlanta means they have to play an equally difficult first round game. Outside of the aforementioned SEC title, there really isn’t much incentive to play in that game.
Unfortunately, the Tide doesn’t get an option to decline an invite to Atlanta. If the more likely scenario happens, it would certainly behoove them to win the game and earn a bye. It’s rather absurd that losing the SEC Championship Game creates a tougher path than the other at large teams in the league, but this is where we are.
Of course, none of this matters if Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn. Let’s not do that.
ESPN FPI has Alabama with the best chance to win the conference, by a very slim margin.
One of the biggest examples of this was Alabama’s 39.8% percentage chance to win the SEC championship, which is the highest among any team from the conference to win the title. After the Crimson Tide, the Texas Longhorns had the next-highest percentage to win the SEC at 38.7%, followed by Georgia at 17.1%.
Alabama, who dropped to the No. 2 overall team according to FPI after their win Saturday – with Texas jumping the Crimson Tide – has a 44.6% chance to win out, as well as a 70.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff. At 70.7%, Alabama has the third-best chance to make the CFP from the SEC behind only Texas and Georgia.
Texas has slightly lower odds because they have to play Texas A&M yet, who is tougher than any opponent Alabama has left. And I’m not sure the computers can quantify just how difficult it is going to be for Texas to roll into Kyle Field and face the Aggies for the first time in 13 years, with the Aggies’ playoff hopes on the line. Texas can probably lose that game and still host a playoff game as outlined above.
If Texas A&M beats Texas, an even bigger mess is created for the SEC. No more than five SEC teams can go to the playoff, which means that one of the teams currently ranked in the field will be left out. There is a decent chance that only four SEC teams make it as is, which would leave out at least one two-loss team and undoubtedly have Greg Sankey screaming for expansion. Ole Miss seems most likely to be the odd man out in that scenario with two unranked losses to LSU and Kentucky.
People wanted this.
Matt Stahl graded the Mercer game, if interested.
Defense: A
Same deal as the offense. Mercer didn’t have the talent to compete and it showed, but Alabama took care of business.
The Crimson Tide scored its first defensive touchdown of the season in the first half, when Zabien Brown picked up a fumble and found the end zone. Alabama generated three turnovers throughout the game.
When the backups got in, the Tide didn’t let up. A good performance that could serve to build momentum entering next week’s trip to Oklahoma.
They won in drama free fashion and there were no major injuries. That’s all that matters in the FCS game.
Alabama had an expected decommitment.
The Crimson Tide has another running back commitment in the 2025 class. Akylin “AK” Dear committed to Alabama in August.
Rogers is listed as a four-star running back prospect by 247Sports’ composite rankings. He’s ranked as the No. 8 RB in the class, No. 141 overall players in the class.
Alabama’s class is currently ranked as the No. 3 group nationally for 2025 according to the 247 composite. The Crimson Tide was top class, before three recent decommits, including Rogers, linebacker Dawson Merritt (flipped to Nebraska) and wide receiver Caleb Cunningham (Ole Miss).
Rogers is smaller than Dear and committed to Nick Saban back in 2023. After DeBoer flipped Dear from Ole Miss, Rogers took visits to multiple places. It seems that Ohio State will be his likely landing spot.
Last, it was a huge NFL weekend for Alabama players. Jeudy had the longest.
Tua Tagovailoa threw three TD passes in a win over the Raiders. Others who found paydirt include Josh Jacobs, Jameson Williams, and of course Derrick Henry scores every week.
That’s about it for today. Have a great week.
Roll Tide.
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