Created over two decades ago by Ken Pomeroy, the KenPom metric has been around college basketball for years, crunching numbers and making up the basis for a rankings system that has become well-respected and even weighed by the NCAA Tournament committee during the decision-making process.
Over time, KenPom has become a predictor of sorts, offering insight into which squads have the best statistical chance to make a memorable run in March and ultimately bring home a national championship trophy.
According to social media-based College Basketball Report, 96 percent of national champions since 2001 were ranked in the top 21 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency in advance of the NCAA Tournament, while 91 percent of national champions during that span ranked among the top 31 in defensive efficiency. (Note that the tweet below is over a month old.)
• 96% of National Champions since 2001 have had a top-21 KenPom offense pre-tournament.
• 91% of National Champions since 2001 have had a top-31 KenPom defense pre-tournament.Teams that currently fit this criteria: pic.twitter.com/0YuNvHrLav
— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) January 24, 2025
That info is the basis of an update from Robert Rosenthal, publisher of IlliniBoard.com, who notes that Illinois – despite heading into the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 7 seed after going 12-8 in conference play and putting together what many consider to be an underwhelming regular season – is the only Big Ten squad that currently meets the above criteria:
Teams that currently meet this criteria (top-21 KenPom offense, top-31 KenPom defense):
Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Texas Tech, Arizona, Clemson, Illinois. https://t.co/osc2cOgX8o
— Robert Rosenthal (@ALionEye) March 9, 2025
Even No. 8 Michigan State, which finished its season an impressive 26-5 (17-3 Big Ten), failed to make the cut, as the Spartans’ offense (No. 28) sits outside the top 21.
No. 12 Wisconsin? No. 13 Maryland? Nope Both have put together wildly successful regular season campaigns, but each fails to meet KenPom’s unofficial national champion metrics criteria.
Meanwhile, Illinois’ offense – ranked 15th by KenPom’s efficiency metrics – is one of the best in the nation despite being led by a trio of first-year college hoopers in Kasparas Jakucionis, Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic who only just now appear to be hitting their stride. On the other end, the Illini defense (No. 30), anchored by Ivisic and lockdown defender Kylan Boswell, isn’t too far behind.
One of just nine teams in the NCAA that fit into KenPom’s championship criteria, the Illini appear to have more than just an outside chance to put together an unforgettable March run that culminates in cutting down the nets in San Antonio less than a month from now.
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