The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.
It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.
Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.
But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.
Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.
The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.
Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.
The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.
Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.
The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.
The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.
It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.
Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.
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