DETROIT – Will Alex Bregman sign today? Will it be with the Detroit Tigers?
Baseball fans are still following this free agency, and fans in Detroit hope their team polishes off a solid offseason by solidifying the third base position.
The Tigers need a third baseman. They need a right-handed hitter. They need a veteran who can stabilize the lineup. They need someone who can get on base.
Bregman checks all of those boxes, so the union makes sense. With full-team spring training workouts less than two weeks away, this deal could happen at any time.
Here’s what insiders are reporting today about Bregman.
Hot Stove weighs in on Bregman, Arenado news
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Per Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds on Hot Stove.
Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds shared their take on Wednesday morning’s news that the Red Sox have returned to the table to talk to the Cardinals about an Arenado trade.
Reynolds said he thinks this is “no doubt” real because it’s a team that Arenado would agree to go to.
“The Cardinals don’t want to bring him back to camp,” Reynolds said. “What are you going to do with Nolan Gorman, who has to play? And you basically have soured the waters with this relationship. You’ve got to move him, and the Red Sox are a club that he would move to.”
The Red Sox would probably have to move Rafael Devers to the right side of the infield if they acquire Arenado.
“I agree with you completely,” Vasgersian said. “You can’t open camp with him there. Make a move. Neither party seems satisfied with the relationship at this point.”
Reynolds said Fenway Park is perfect for Arenado’s swing.
The conversation moved to Bregman and the likelihood that he returns to Houston.
“I, myself, am skeptical that he returns to the Astros,” Vasgersian said. “I think that the next deal is somewhere else.”
Reynolds said it’s getting to the point where Bregman doesn’t know where else to go. But the fact that the general manager hasn’t spoken to the agent in two or more weeks is “not good.”
“If you haven’t talked to Boras, and this offer’s been out there and your client still doesn’t have anything out there and you still haven’t talked to Scott, it doesn’t sound good for the Astros,” Reynolds said.
Are Tigers willing to commit long-term?
ESPN baseball insiders Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers spoke Wednesday morning about all of the Bregman suitors.
“Then you have the Detroit Tigers,” Olney said. “The fit with A.J. Hinch. The fact that they are in their window to win. But as you and I were talking yesterday through text, we were wondering: Would the Tigers make the type of commitment that Bregman would need to justify turning down that Astros offer? I don’t know if they would.”
“I agree with you,” Rogers said. “Scott Harris has been very deliberate about building this team. I’m not sure he’s ready to make that big leap that Scott Boras wants him to make.
“At the beginning of the offseason, I felt like he just — if he was going to leave Houston, he’d be a Red Sox. I feel like his game, his personality would fit Boston.
“As far as the Cubs are concerned: Their top prospect is slated to play third base, so I’m not sure if it’s the smartest move to tie up a guy into his mid- to late 30s and a huge price and block him. Matt Shaw could move to second, but I think the Cubs are good at being nimble and flexible, so you’re right, if he wants a (Cody) Bellinger-type deal, they’ll be there for that. The difference is Bellinger was younger when he signed that. Why not take the security that is probably elsewhere, if you’re Bregman, than a shorter-term deal?”
Red Sox back in on Nolan Arenado
With some reports citing the Tigers and Red Sox as the two top contenders for Bregman, a recent report could put the Tigers in the driver’s seat.
Jon Morosi, of MLB Network, is reporting that the Red Sox and Cardinals have reengaged in talks about third baseman Nolan Arenado.
The Cardinals are trying to offload Arenado’s contract, seemingly at any cost. It probably wouldn’t take much in terms of prospects to acquire the aging veteran.
It feels like the Arenado interest won’t truly heat up until Bregman signs — they’re both veteran third basemen, but Bregman is clearly the better player at this point.
But the fact that Boston is checking back in on Arenado suggests the team isn’t feeling overly confident in its chance to land Bregman.
This could obviously change on a dime. Or it could be a leverage move by the Red Sox. But on the surface, it feels like good news for the Tigers’ pursuit of Bregman.
4-year offer from Cubs?
A couple of Chicago Cubs sites are reporting that the Cubs have offered Bregman a four-year deal worth at least $100 million.
If that’s the case, Bregman would have to back off all of his previous demands to accept the deal. He and his agent, Scott Boras, declined a six-year, $156 million from the Astros earlier this offseason — and that was to stay with his preferred team.
Accepting a shorter deal for a similar annual value would not only be a financial hit for Bregman, but also a public loss for Boras, who isn’t known to concede.
It would be a surprise to see Bregman and Boras accept an offer that’s not either worth more than $156 million or a shorter deal that comes with a much higher annual value (to try to save face).
Offer details
Red Sox insider Rob Bradford posted some intel on the offers on the table for Bregman, and it pretty much aligns with what everyone has been reporting for the past few weeks.
Other than the Blue Jays, Bregman’s suitors are offering deals for higher annual value and fewer years, according to Bradford.
That’s not a surprise, considering Bregman is going to be 31 years old by Opening Day and he’s unlikely to be worth a huge salary beyond the next three or four seasons.
Dana Brown says Astros ‘lost’ Bregman
Astros beat writer Chandler Rome reported that general manager Dana Brown mentioned Bregman during his address at the team’s annual media luncheon.
“Dana Brown twice spoke about Alex Bregman in the past tense, saying once that the team ‘lost Bregman,‘” Rome posted.
It seems the momentum between Bregman and the Astros following the Ryan Pressly trade has stalled, though the Astros could change course at any moment and become the favorite again.
Rome said Brown was asked to clarify and conceded that, “we’re continuing to have internal conversations because he’s still available.”
Brown told Rome that he hasn’t spoken to Boras recently, and he doesn’t believe Astros owner Jim Crane has, either.
Bregman decision timeline
Eduardo Perez spoke on MLB Network Radio about when he expects Bregman and fellow free agent Pete Alonso to sign.
He talked about the disadvantages of showing up late to spring training, especially when joining a new team and meeting all new teammates.
“I would want them there on Day 1,” Perez said. “I don’t want them getting there mid-spring training and now getting to know their teammates and getting to see how it’s going to work, because then you end up losing almost the first month of the season with productivity.
“The one thing that they do need to be is healthy coming in, and I just expect both Bregman and Pete Alonso to sign before it’s mandatory for position players to get into camp.
Here are the first full-team workout dates for each of the teams pursuing Bregman:
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Chicago Cubs: Feb. 14 in Arizona (earliest in MLB).
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Detroit Tigers: Feb. 17 in Florida.
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Boston Red Sox: Feb. 17 in Florida.
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Houston Astros: Feb. 18 in Florida.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Feb. 18 in Florida.
‘My gut says Tigers will land Bregman’
In the same article that includes the ZiPS playoff projections, Dan Szymborski included his thoughts on the Bregman sweepstakes.
“The Tigers are in a position where the extra wins they’d get from Bregman would translate into a huge playoff probability boost, and though ZiPS thinks Jace Jung would be solid at third, signing Bregman would trigger a roster shuffle that would tighten up right field and the short side of Detroit’s DH platoon — the team’s two weakest positions, according to ZiPS,” Szymborski writes.
He also said he personally expects the Tigers to land Bregman “likely very soon if it happens.”
“My gut says the Tigers will be the team to land Bregman, and likely very soon if it happens,” Szymborski said. They just shored up the rotation with the signing of Jack Flaherty at an extremely reasonable price, and as the projected fourth-place team in the AL Central right now, they have a lot to gain by adding a legitimate All-Star. There’s a way, but is there a will?”
Tigers playoff odds
Fangraphs released a chart showing the playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams with and without Bregman.
According to that chart, only the Kansas City Royals — who are not linked to Bregman at all so far — would see a larger increase in ZiPS playoff probability by adding Bregman.
ZiPS has the Tigers at 31.2% to make the playoffs right now. If they sign Bregman, those odds jump to 43.6%, according to the projection.
Top 5 suitors
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From multiple insiders.
According to multiple MLB insiders, the Tigers and Red Sox appeared to be the primary contenders for Bregman, as of Monday, Feb. 3.
Everyone should still be worried about the Astros, not only because Bregman has said he prefers to stay in Houston, but also because that ballpark is uniquely perfect for Bregman’s pull-heavy approach. If he returns to Houston, Isaac Paredes will apparently move to second base and Jose Altuve would move to left field, which sounds messy.
Boston is reportedly hoping Bregman will accept a four-year deal. The Red Sox want to keep Rafael Devers at third base, so Bregman would apparently move to second.
The Blue Jays seem to be a fringe contender for Bregman right now, but they also apparently have a six-year offer on the table, which makes them a contender.
It sounds like the Cubs are torn on whether they want to add Bregman, but they’re still in the mix.
The Tigers are the easiest fit because Bregman could just come in and be the everyday first baseman. It sounds like they have a five- or six-year offer on the table, but it’s unclear how much they’re offering.
‘They might not be done’
On “The Baseball Insiders” podcast, Robert Murray said while breaking down the Flaherty signing that the Tigers “might not be done” making moves this offseason.
“After Flaherty was announced yesterday, my first reaction was, ‘OK, that probably takes them out on Bregman,’” Murray said. “Not the case. They remain in on Alex Bregman. They have interest there. Does not mean a deal is going to get done, by any means, but I’m convinced that the Tigers have a shot here.
“Really, if you look at the market, how can’t they? You have the Red Sox who have just been kind of sitting still. They haven’t made any real progress here on Bregman. The Cubs have been connected a lot more in recent weeks, and we even saw Bruce Levine in Chicago mention that they’re trying there. So I guess the Cubs shouldn’t be discounted, by any means.
“But there’s been really no other strong competition for Bregman’s services.”
Murray said he doesn’t know whether the Blue Jays are out of the Bregman chase.
“I honestly have not heard that much as far as the Jays’ interest goes in Bregman,” Murray said. “I’ve heard them connected to (Pete) Alonso, (Alex) Verdugo. I heard them connected to (Max) Scherzer for awhile. They’ve been poking around on a bunch of different names, but Bregman — at least as far as my end goes — I have not heard much there. Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t know.”
Red Sox president makes strange comment
Sam Kennedy, the president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox, made a strange comment about the team’s pursuit of Bregman.
“I’m not allowed to talk about any specific free agent negotiations or anything, but given that he’s unsigned, I think that speaks for itself,” Kennedy said Monday at Fenway Park.
Is that a shot at Bregman and his asking price? It’s hard to say. The only thing we know for sure is that Kennedy clearly doesn’t know what “speaks for itself” means. Because his words don’t.
‘I don’t think they’re done
A.J. Pierzynski asked Cody Stavenhagen on Foul Territory whether the Tigers were done after signing Flaherty.
“I don’t think they’re done,” Stavenhagen said. “I think right-handed bat is a priority one way or another. Bregman’s obviously the big fish and I think that they’ve shaped a lot of their offseason around staying in the Alex Bregman pursuit.
“We’re going to see what happens and we can talk more about it. I think they have a chance, and even if they miss on Bregman, I’ll be curious if there is a pivot, whether that’s for a platoon guy like Randal Grichuk, or maybe you circle back to the Nolan Arenado idea.
“Plan A, I think, is to get Bregman, but there’s a strong argument they need a right-handed bat, regardless, to really strengthen this lineup.”
Tigers feeling ‘more optimistic’
In the wake of the Flaherty news, Cody Stavenhagen said the Tigers are feeling more optimistic about their chances to land Bregman.
“Tigers people seem to be feeling more optimistic about the Bregman situation,” Stavenhagen said. “I don’t know. This has been a whole weird saga, but people I’ve talked to seem to just be in good moods the past few days. I don’t know when Bregman’s going to sign.
“But that feeling that once Houston jumped in it was going to be over — clearly he hasn’t signed with the Astros. (Houston general manager) Dana Brown said this past week that he hasn’t even actually talked to Scott Boras yet. It doesn’t seem like that’s going to be a cut-and-dry deal.
“We don’t know what the Tigers have offered, but whatever it is, they seem to feel good about their offer. It’ll be great whenever we can get a resolution on the Bregman saga.”
He said his sense is that the Tigers’ standing is as optimistic as they’ve felt.
Tigers still pursuing Bregman
Hours after reports surfaced that the Tigers had signed Flaherty, ESPN’s Buster Olney chimed in to clarify that the Tigers are still very much in the mix for Bregman.
“After signing Jack Flaherty and augmenting their rotation, the Tigers are one of the teams pursuing Alex Bregman,” Olney posted on X.
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