March Madness 2025: Re-picking the rest of the NCAA Tournament … who cuts down the nets?

Let’s try this again.

Don’t worry. I’m not about to go on some rant about my busted NCAA Tournament bracket because you don’t care about each of my picks, unless I somehow was epically awful. I don’t have that. I instead have 7 of my Elite Eight teams left — Oregon not being able to cool off Caleb Love wasn’t ideal — and all of my Final Four in place. Again, you don’t care. If you did care, you’d pat me on the back for having Michigan, BYU and Ole Miss in my Sweet 16, and you’d tell me that my Colorado State Sweet 16 pick was robbed.

But that was then, and all that matters now is a re-pick of the rest of the bracket. Maybe that means deviating from some of my original picks, or perhaps it’s doubling down on some upsets. Either way, we’ve got more context now that the opening weekend is in the books.

Here’s how I see the rest of the NCAA Tournament playing out:

South

• Michigan beats Auburn
• Michigan State beats Ole Miss
• Michigan State beats Michigan

I’m sticking with my original upset of Michigan taking down Auburn even though I’m acknowledging that we could look back on Dylan Cardwell’s post-Round 1 comments as the turning point of the Tigers’ season. Auburn’s biggest looming factor could be the health of Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara. The former hasn’t looked right in the NCAA Tournament and Baker-Mazara went down with a deep bone bruise that sidelined him the rest of the game against Creighton. My concern is that against a Michigan team that can match its size, Auburn will fall in love with the outside shot too much, endure a rough offensive stretch and press a bit in the closing moments.

Michigan State’s ability to battle back in the second half will be needed against an Ole Miss squad that has proven plenty capable of sprinting out to an early lead. But instead of getting a double-digit lead and really putting pressure on the Spartans, Chris Beard’s squad lets MSU keep it to a 4-5 point deficit. A 10-0 run in the final 6 minutes turns a possible upset bid into a reminder that Tom Izzo and big-time March victories go hand in hand.

A Michigan-Michigan State Regional Final? Yes, please. Let these squads face off once more after their scuffle on Michigan State’s Senior Day. It’s hard to ignore how decisive the Spartans won both of their regular-season matchups. The Wolverines shot 8-for-45 from 3-point range against the nation’s top 3-point defensive team. History repeats itself and Michigan State gets to its 9th Final Four of the Izzo era.

West

• Florida beats Maryland
• Texas Tech beats Arkansas
• Florida beats Texas Tech

There’s a chance that a loose Maryland squad is playing with house money and Florida is again locked into a 60-minute fight. But that team’s refusal to flinch is why it’s still one of the favorites to cut down the nets. Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard will be a challenging matchup for anyone, especially a Maryland team that had issues preventing smaller Colorado State guards from getting to the rack. Florida holds a 3-7 point lead all second half and fends off The Crab 5.

Could Arkansas continue to be a giant killer? It’s possible. Nobody else in the NCAA Tournament field has a win vs. a top-2 seed, and say what you want about Calipari’s last 5 years at Kentucky, but he’s still a guy with 6 Final Four berths. But Texas Tech’s offensive versatility outside of JT Toppin will be pivotal. Arkansas finally faces a team that can knock down shots, and it’s unable to climb back after a fast Texas Tech start.

Florida-Texas Tech would be the reward of a mostly chalky start to the NCAA Tournament. We’d get a pair of teams that could have elite defensive play while still going back and forth trading buckets in a game that gets into the high 80s. That’s the ideal Elite Eight matchup. Florida’s depth off the bench — a 20-point Denzel Aberdeen game is coming in San Francisco — and ability to get second-chance points is the difference in a down-to-the-wire showdown that lives up to the billing.

East

• Duke beats Arizona
• Alabama beats BYU
• Duke beats Alabama

I originally had Oregon beating Duke and pulling off the upset of the tournament, so I’ll acknowledge that I’m already wrong for thinking Duke will be ousted in the Sweet 16. Instead of Caleb Love having more brilliance against Duke, the Arizona star forces shots and has a 2-for-15 night that the Wildcats are unable to overcome against the Blue Devils’ offensive firepower.

BYU upsetting Alabama would be noteworthy, but it wouldn’t be stunning by any stretch. That style of offense can take down an elite team, which we saw during a 9-game win streak that continued into the Big 12 Tournament. But this feels like the type of matchup in which we see all of Alabama’s best offensive traits, most notably a healthier Grant Nelson. BYU will get caught trying to keep pace with that and instead of doing so, Alabama will force enough bad shots to prevent a Sweet 16 upset.

In my original bracket, I had the Tide reaching the Final Four. That, however, was contingent on Duke getting upset by Oregon in the Sweet 16. Could the Tide’s style play similarly to Kentucky against Duke? You bet. But could Alabama also have too many defensive lapses and fail to frustrate a confident, balanced Duke offensive attack? Definitely. That ends up being the scenario that plays out. The Tide come up just short of knocking off the 1-seed and reaching the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

Midwest

• Tennessee beats Kentucky
• Houston beats Purdue
• Tennessee beats Houston

I know, I know. Kentucky is going for the 3-game sweep against Tennessee, who hasn’t ever reached the Final Four. You know, in case you haven’t heard. The Cats overcame injury issues and reached their first Sweet 16 since 2019. So why won’t this feel-good Year 1 Mark Pope run continue? UK shot at a 50% clip in both of those wins. I can’t imagine a team as disciplined as Tennessee will let that happen a 3rd time. Alternatively, I can’t imagine that Chaz Lanier has an off night for the 3rd consecutive time against UK. His shotmaking down the stretch will help the Vols crawl out of a late hole and avoid loss No. 3 to UK.

Braden Smith could end up being the right guy to navigate Houston’s relentless pressure, and he could make every right decision for Purdue. But Kelvin Sampson’s team is built to handle an elite guard like that. That’s why it has 1 post-November loss, and it was an overtime loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars limit those Purdue scoring opportunities and too many poor shot choices doom Matt Painter’s team in its bid to return to the Final Four.

I had Houston in the national championship game in my original bracket, so I’ll pivot from that. Why? Maybe I’ve just watched Houston in some of these late-game NCAA Tournament scenarios too many times, but the Cougars have been somewhat maddening. They can flip the switch, and not in a good way. Untimely turnovers, weird shot selection and missed free throws have been a bit too familiar for Houston after the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Against a team that can manufacture those things like Tennessee, that bites Houston and gives the Vols their first Final Four berth.

Final Four

• Florida beats Michigan State
• Duke beats Tennessee
• Florida beats Duke

I’m tempted to change things up after Duke looked like a world-beater and Florida held on for dear life against UConn, but I won’t do that. I can’t quit a team that does the things that Florida does. Not even against Duke. They just have too many answers. What about the fact that Todd Golden is in the second weekend for the first time and he hadn’t even won an NCAA Tournament game before this year? Dan Hurley had 2 NCAA Tournament victories before he began UConn’s repeat run. Scott Drew had never been to a Final Four before he won it all in 2021, and the same was true of Tony Bennett in 2019. Even against someone as experienced as Izzo, Golden doesn’t look overmatched and in the title game against Duke, Flagg is the only one who really gets going.

Speaking of Flagg, here’s something worth noting for the Wooden Award winner (he and Broome are the favorites). The only 21st-century instances of the Wooden Award playing for the national championship team were 2018 Jalen Brunson, 2012 Anthony Davis and 2001 Shane Battier. It’s extremely rare that the guy considered to be the best player in the sport wins it all. Davis is the only freshman to ever check both boxes. Can Flagg join that company? It’s certainly possible, but the Duke’s downfall ends up being that Flagg can’t get enough help against a team as resilient as Florida.

A year after UConn became the first time since 2006-07 Florida to repeat as national champs, the Gators take their place back atop the college basketball world.

Connor O’Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He’s a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.