A number of college basketball programs are still fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament with limited resume-building games left in the regular season.
And there were plenty of games on Saturday that either helped, or hurt, teams trying to hang on or work their way back into the bubble picture.
There’s still plenty of time for teams to build their March Madness resume, as bubble teams in conferences like the SEC have a chance at earning a high-end win nearly every night, given the league’s gauntlet difficulty this season.
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Things can always shake up last minute, of course, as bid stealers win conference championships to secure automatic berths to the NCAA tournament and knock teams off the bubble.
Here’s a look at the latest bubble watch, including locks, likely-in teams and teams with work to do for NCAA Tournament berths:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Saturday, Feb. 22
NCAA Tournament locks
- ACC: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
- Big Ten: Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Oregon
- Big 12: Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas
- Big East: St. John’s, Marquette, Creighton, UConn
- SEC: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Missouri, Kentucky, Ole Miss
- Other: Memphis, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
How about Pat Kelsey? The first-year Louisville coach has done a tremendous job with the Cardinals, as they have a 16-1 record in their last 17 games and are firmly in contention for an ACC regular season championship. Louisville, who built essentially its entire team through the transfer portal in the offseason, has losses to Duke and Georgia Tech in conference play.
Oregon also reaches the lock list, as the Ducks have bounced back from a four-game losing streak with five consecutive wins, including a 12-point comeback win over Wisconsin in overtime on Saturday. Sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad hit a game-tying 3-pointer with under 20 seconds remaining on the road to force overtime.
The SEC leads the way with nine locks, as the conference’s strength of schedule has battled tested most of the league for March.
Likely NCAA Tournament teams
- ACC: None
- Big Ten: UCLA, Illinois
- Big 12: BYU
- SEC: None
- Big East: None
- Other: Utah State, New Mexico
There aren’t many teams on the “likely in” section of the NCAA Tournament bubble, as at this point in the season, it’s difficult to imagine any of these teams not making the 68-team field. Still, crazier things have happened in college basketball.
Utah State and New Mexico have both had NCAA Tournament-worthy seasons so far in 2024-25 and will likely hear their name called come Selection Sunday, with Richard Pitino’s squad holding a season sweep over the Aggies.
UCLA and Illinois should still be in, although the Bruins have lost two of their last three games to Illinois and Minnesota, while the Fighting Illini have dropped back-to-back games against Michigan State and Wisconsin.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
- ACC: SMU, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Pitt
- Big Ten: Nebraska, Ohio State, Indiana
- Big 12: Baylor, West Virginia
- SEC: Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Georgia
- Big East: Xavier
- Other: UC San Diego, San Diego State, VCU, Drake, Liberty, George Mason, North Texas, Boise State, Bradley
Baylor is giving its best shot at falling into a tough spot, as the Bears were upset by Colorado 76-74 on Saturday as the Buffaloes earned only their second win in Big 12 play this season. Baylor (16-11, 8-8 Big 12) still has a strong strength of schedule and is 29th in the NCAA’s Net Rankings, but it needs to pull itself together to not sweat on Selection Sunday.
Oklahoma picked up a must-win game over Mississippi State, beating the Bulldogs 97-87 at home on Saturday for the Sooners’ fourth conference win. Oklahoma’s resume is being propped up by nonconference wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, and it definitely has work to do in SEC play, regardless of its strength of schedule in the loaded conference.
SMU boasts a 20-7 record but ranks 38th in the NCAA’s Net Rankings due to playing a mostly weak ACC schedule with no ranked wins this season.
Nebraska took a tough loss against Penn State 89-72 on Saturday but has a shot at a big win against Michigan on Tuesday at home, a game the Cornhuskers might need to feel comfortable about their chances.
As always, there are large groups of mid-major teams on the bubble, as it’ll be tough for most of them to make the field without securing an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament. There’s always a chance to still make the field as an at-large team, but the chances are slim for non-power conference programs.
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