Which NCAA men’s teams to watch on the bubble before March Madness
USAT’s Jordan Mendoza gives his teams to keep an eye on for ‘bubble watch’ as March Madness selection Sunday approaches.
Sports Pulse
As conference tournaments start to ramp up around the country in men’s college basketball and automatic bids begin to be handed out, the field of 68 for the NCAA Tournament is beginning to come into view.
And that means the margin of error (and time) for those teams on the bubble is shrinking.
Most of the bubble watching that will take place across the next several days will be on the SEC tournament in Nashville, as the conference searches to break the record for most bids by a single conference in a single year. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has two SEC teams — Arkansas and Oklahoma — in his “last four byes” and “last four in” categories and one SEC team — Texas — in his “first four out” category.
However, the SEC isn’t the only Power 4 level conference monitoring the bubble and other conference tournaments (high-mid-low-major conferences). For example, the Big Ten has two teams that could join the likes of Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland and Purdue in the field with a strong showing in Indianapolis at the Big Ten tournament.
But then there also are teams that look like “safe” picks for The Big Dance, but could hurt their projected seedings with an early exit from their respective conference tournaments. Welcome to the madness, where nothing is for granted.
Here’s an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and likely in the field as conference tournaments pick up in the coming days:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Tuesday, March 12
NCAA Tournament locks
- ACC (3): Duke, Clemson and Louisville
- Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Oregon, UCLA and Illinois
- Big 12 (5): Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona and BYU
- Big East (4): St. John’s, Marquette, Creighton and UConn
- SEC (9): Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Missouri and Ole Miss
- Other (3): Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga and San Diego State
Though it has lost three of its last five, including an overtime buzzer-beater to then-No. 6 St. John’s on Saturday, Marquette remains a lock for the Big East. The Golden Eagles are No. 25 in the NET rankings and are 12-9 combined against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, which includes wins against Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin.
Of the nine teams that are considered locks out of the SEC, Ole Miss is the closest to being considered “likely” to make the NCAA Tournament after dropping four of its final six regular season games.
Michigan State has the highest chance (13.2%) of making it to the Final Four among all Big Ten teams that are locks for the NCAA Tournament, per ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index.
NCAA Tournament likely in
- ACC: None
- Big Ten: None
- Big 12 (2): Kansas and West Virginia
- Big East: None
- SEC (1): Vanderbilt
- Other (1): Memphis
Memphis enters the American Athletic Conference tournament in Fort Worth, Texas as the favorites and can lock up its spot in the field by winning the conference’s automatic bid. However, if the Tigers don’t win the conference tournament, the AAC will likely be represented by another team — most notably North Texas.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
- ACC: UNC
- Big Ten: Indiana and Ohio State
- Big 12: Baylor
- Big East: Xavier
- SEC: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas
- Other: Boise State, VCU, George Mason, Dayton, North Texas and San Diego State
North Carolina lost out on its chance of securing its spot in the field on Saturday as it fell to Duke 82-69 at the Dean Center. The Tar Heels now head to the ACC Tournament looking to pick up a few signature wins, with slim pickings for them to grab.
Xavier enters the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden as one of the hottest teams in the conference, as it has won eight of its last nine. A strong showing at The Garden — which can start with a win over No. 23 Marquette on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. ET — can get Sean Miller’s squad off the bubble and into the tournament for the first time since 2023. ESPN’s Analytics model has the Musketeers with a 59% chance of making The Big Dance.
VCU, George Mason and Dayton are the three likely candidates to fight for lone Atlantic 10 spot (automatic bid) in the field this week in Washington D.C. at Capital One Arena. The Rams and the Patriots shared the A-10 regular season title, while VCU has the highest NET ranking among all three.
Lunardi currently has Ohio State and Oklahoma playing against each other in Dayton in the First Four, with San Diego State meeting up with Xavier in another First Four matchup.
When does March Madness begin?
- Men’s NCAA Tournament start date: Tuesday, March 18 (First Four)
While the men’s NCAA Tournament unofficially begins on Selection Sunday, it well and truly gets underway on Tuesday, March 18 with the First Four in Dayton, Ohio at UD Arena. The first set of first-round games will then follow two days later on Thursday, March 20.
Here is the full schedule breakdown for the 2025 NCAA Tournament:
- First Four: Tuesday, March 18 through Wednesday, March 19
- First round: Thursday, March 20 through Friday, March 21
- Second round: Saturday, March 22 through Sunday, March 23
- Sweet 16: Thursday, March 27 through Friday, March 28
- Elite Eight: Saturday, March 29 through Sunday, March 30
- Final Four: Saturday, April 5
- National Championship: Monday, April 7
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