Four teams enter conference tournament week with better than 12-1 odds to win the NCAA men’s tournament. And there are two clear favorites among the four.
Auburn is currently the slight favorite over Duke to win it all in April in San Antonio. The Tigers won the SEC regular season and are +325 to win the national title at BetMGM. Duke dominated a down ACC during the regular season with freshman sensation Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils are at +350.
Auburn had maintained the top spot in the AP Top 25 since Jan. 13. Until Monday, anyway. The now-No. 2 Tigers won 14 straight games to end 2024 and begin 2025 before losing their first SEC game of the season to Florida on Feb. 8.
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The Tigers carry a two-game losing streak into the SEC tournament, however, and that’s why they fell from the top spot. Auburn lost by 11 on the road at Texas A&M on March 4 before losing on an overtime buzzer-beater at home to Alabama on Saturday.
Duke is the nation’s new No. 1 team. The Blue Devils are on an eight-game win streak after having a 16-game win streak snapped by Clemson on Feb. 8. Duke went 19-1 in the ACC and won all 19 of those games by multiple possessions. Duke’s closest win came all the way back in January when the Blue Devils beat Wake Forest 63-56 in Winston-Salem.
That performance is why you won’t get a great return if you want to bet on Duke to win the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are -325 to win the conference tournament. Louisville is the No. 2 favorite at +450.
Duke is also the most-bet team to win the national title. Nearly 24% of bets are on Duke to win and the Blue Devils have also received the most money of any team.
Auburn, meanwhile, is +160 to win the SEC tournament ahead of Florida at +250 and Alabama at +450. Florida is the No. 3 favorite to win the NCAA tournament at +600 ahead of Houston at +800.
The Gators went 14-4 in SEC play and have won nine of their last 10 games. That stretch includes a nine-point win at Auburn and wins over Texas A&M and Alabama. The Gators’ odds may also be down because of a significant bet. Earlier this season, a bettor placed a $100,000 wager on Florida at +900 to win the national title. That bet is a big reason why Florida has received the second-most money to win it all.
Houston ran away with the Big 12 at 19-1. The Cougars have won 23 of their last 24 games and that lone conference loss came by one point to Texas Tech at home in overtime on Feb. 1. The Red Raiders finished second in the Big 12 but were four games behind Houston.
All four of the favorites are expected to be No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday barring any conference tournament surprises. Alabama is the No. 5 favorite at +1200 and Tennessee is at +1500. No one else has odds better than 22-1 to win it all.
March Madness favorites
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Auburn (+325)
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Duke (+350)
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Florida (+600)
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Houston (+800)
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Alabama (+1200)
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Tennessee (+1500)
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Michigan State (+2200)
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Iowa State (+2500)
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St. John’s (+2500)
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Kentucky (+3500)
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Texas Tech (+4000)
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Kansas (+5000)
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Arizona (+5000)
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Gonzaga (+5000)
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Maryland (+5000)
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