Allow me to practice some positive affirmations before the start of this column: These predictions are in every way perfect and will 100% come to fruition. I deserve absolutely no criticism for my predictions because they are perfect. I will not listen to any criticism because my predictions are undeniably right.
I’m joking, of course. Predicting a college basketball conference championship game is like projecting the weather; no matter how well it’s modeled, it’s always wrong.
Below are my personal projections for each of the high-major conference championship games (excluding the Big East – see Husky Hoopla), listed alphabetically and using KenPom’s projected records for the regular season.
ACC – North Carolina (Proj. 21-9) vs. Duke (Proj. 25-6)
Barring any unforeseen runs by Wake Forest, Miami or Louisville, the ACC will be the easiest conference to project — and actually get right — heading into 2024. The old saying “the rich keep getting richer” applies especially to the bluebloods on the Atlantic Coast ahead of 2024, with the two national powerhouses combining for six five-stars and a handful of high-profile transfers to complete the pair of already star-studded rosters.
The Tar Heels return more talent from last season (including potential Wooden Award winner RJ Davis and distributor Elliot Cadeau), but max out at a lower ceiling than the Blue Devils, who welcome the powerful Cooper Flagg to Durham after a historical high school campaign, along with international Olympians and seven-foot difference makers.
The losses of Armando Bacot, Cormac Ryan and do-it-all Harrison Ingram sting for UNC, but a bevy of high-octane underclassmen will shoulder some of the scoring alongside Davis, who returns after averaging 21.2 ppg last season.
Duke’s roster is arguably more talented, especially in the frontcourt and on the wing, where Flagg, seven-footer Khaman Maluach and transfer Mason Gillis – a palpable scorer – will all have scoring opportunities early. Riding with the less experienced but more talented roster seems to be the move here, especially considering the amount of raw power the Blue Devils possess at every level on the roster.
Big 10 – Purdue (Proj. 21-9) vs. Michigan (Proj. 18-12)
Every prediction article needs at least one smoldering hot take. Now, which Big 10 team is in on that take: a Purdue team that lost the nation’s top player in Zach Edey and flopped in the national championship game, or a retooled Michigan roster built from the ground up?
I’ll let you figure that out.
The Boilermakers return many key backcourt pieces from last year’s national runner-up team such as fiery Braden Smith and silky-smooth shooter Fletcher Loyer, but welcome explosive underclassmen Camden Heide and Myles Colvin to the rotation in West Lafayette. The emergence of Trey Kaufman-Renn late last season warrants frontcourt optimism for Matt Painter as well. There are also two seven-footers on the roster.
Michigan imploded its entire roster and coaching staff after a disastrous 2023, poaching Dusty Maye from Florida Atlantic and many high-profile transfers – especially in the frontcourt – to form what could be one of the nation’s most improved teams. Yale transfer Danny Wolf is a space-clogging center and Vlad Golden is a huge get for Maye as a holdover from FAU. Freshman Durral Brooks is a surefire starter as a freshman and will have a high impact early.
When in doubt, bet on Matt Painter. The Boilermakers have qualified for two of the last three conference championship games, winning one, all while returning one of the conference’s top rosters.
Big 12 – Baylor (Proj. 20-10) vs. Iowa State (Proj. 21-8)
In what is by far the hardest conference to predict heading into 2024, I took it upon myself to throw darts at a board to determine who will play in this game.
Just kidding, I put thought into it. But there is a pool of teams seven or eight deep that can find themselves playing for the title come March.
Banking on the cohesion of the highest-upside roster in the conference seems like a safe bet. Baylor threw together a mix of returning stars and notable newcomers such as high-pedigree VJ Edgecombe and former Duke starter Jeremy Roach along with fierce rebounder Norchad Omier to form one of the most explosive rosters in college basketball.
Iowa State returns many key pieces from last season’s team and will be one of the country’s best overall defenses with point guard Tamin Lipsey running the show and fellow backcourt mate Keshon Gilbert splitting time with Curtis Jones off the bench to form one of the best backcourts in the country. The Cyclones presented a very consistent offensive attack in 2023 and leaned on their formidable defense to win 29 games and claim a two seed in the NCAA Tournament.
With frontcourt uncertainties forming after the departure of two starters in Ames, Baylor seems like the safer pick. Scott Drew has built tradition in Waco and knows the taste of winning.
SEC – Arkansas (Proj. 20-11) vs. Alabama (Proj. 23-8)
The Tide bounced into 2024 following a Final Four appearance and the return of most of its core, with playmaking guard Mark Sears at the top of Wooden Award conversations and floor-stretching Grant Baker showing tell-tale signs of a breakout in 2024.
The Hogs rebuilt the entire roster after collapsing in 2023 and saying goodbye to coach Eric Musselman by way of USC. The Razorbacks welcome in storied coach John Calipari from conference-rival Kentucky and a litany of bonafide stars via the portal such as DJ Wagner (Kentucky), Johnell Davis (FAU) and Jonas Aidoo (Tennessee) to form one of the more talented nucleuses in the SEC.
Still, the Tide’s roster is one of the best in America and is chock-full of NBA talent. Picking against Nate Oats in SEC play – where he has lost just nine times in three full seasons – seems like a questionable play. I’m riding the Tide to the SEC Championship.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
