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In a series of MLB predictions and preview posts, BA’s editorial staff goes on record with their bold—and not so bold—thoughts about what’s to come in the 2025 season.
We begin with the question: Who will be the biggest breakout pitcher of the 2025 season?
Our prognosticators this year are Ben Badler, Jesús Cano, Mark Chiarelli, Carlos Collazo, J.J. Cooper, Matt Eddy, Josh Norris, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Rangers
Ben Badler: How many innings will the Rangers let Kumar Rocker throw this year? Durability is still the big question mark, but I have immense faith in the stuff he showed when he came back last year. Fellow rookies like Tigers righthander Jackson Jobe and Reds righthander Reds righthander Rhett Lowder might be safer bets, but I think Rocker can be a front-end starter if he’s able to handle the workload.
Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Diamondbacks
Jesús Cano: The D-backs starting rotation is arguably one of the best in baseball. So it’s easy for Brandon Pfaadt to get lost in the shuffle. He struggled when he first got called up, but stepped up when the D-backs went on their Cinderella run to the World Series. In 2024, the lefthander showed flashes of that, but just couldn’t remain consistent. Pfaadt has a guaranteed spot in the rotation, but with arms like Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery who could end up as the odd one out, there really isn’t much room for error. Pfaadt is going to need to keep up.
Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels
Mark Chiarelli: The tricky part about identifying breakout candidates is blending stuff, performance but also opportunity. So while I lingered on Hayden Birdsong and Joe Boyle, and even considered Osvaldo Bido, Jose Soriano piques my interest because of his age (26) and runway in a barren Angels rotation. Soriano’s 98 mph sinker was quite productive last year. Unsurprisingly, he also throws his secondaries quite hard, and said this spring he wants to throw his splitter more in 2025. That’s quite a loud arsenal even if there’s risk here. Soriano has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and his command waxes and wanes. Still, he threw 113 innings in a starting role last year, and if he can stay healthy I could see Soriano emerging as a quite productive–albeit unheralded–rotation arm this year.
Slade Cecconi, RHP, Guardians
Carlos Collazo: Cleveland’s acquisition of Slade Cecconi this offseason was intriguing to me, in part because it’s hard to forget just how dominant he looked six years ago as a high school pitcher in the 2018 class. Cecconi struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 77 innings with Arizona in 2024, but his 5.02 ERA was better and he also has the command and fastball spin profile to get me excited. Among all pitchers with 100 fastballs thrown last year, Cecconi’s 28.7 inches of total fastball movement was sixth in the game. I think there’s more in the tank here for the 26-year-old, and Cleveland is as equipped as any team to help unlock it.
Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves
Matt Eddy: Braves righthander Spencer Schwellenbach impressed me with his ability to work quickly, attack hitters and put them away as a rookie last season. There were starts where it looked like he could get all 27 outs, and Atlanta may ask more out of him this season after losing veteran starters Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Schwellenbach is up for the task after brandishing six average-or-better pitches and showing one of the best first-pitch strike and swinging-strike rates among 25-and-under starters in 2024.
J.J. Cooper: The Braves’ Spencer Schwellenbach has gone from shortstop to rotation stalwart in just a few years. Atlanta’s ability to keep developing later-round starting pitchers is remarkable. Schwellenbach has already been quite good, but he’ll show he’s a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2025.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates
Josh Norris: The Pirates have done wonders with pitching in the last few years—perhaps you’ve heard of Jared Jones and Paul Skenes—and Chandler is the next up. Bubba Chandler took off once he solely focused on pitching and is on the cusp of his big league debut. Now all the Buccos need is some thump in the lineup to give those guys some run support.
Hayden Birdsong, RHP, Giants
Geoff Pontes: After a tremendous spring, Hayden Birdsong is poised to capture the fifth spot in the Giants rotation. Over 12 innings this spring Bridsong allowed one earned run, six hits and 18 strikeouts to zero walks. Birdsong sits mid 90s on his four-seam fastball with ride, mixing two breaking ball shapes in a high-spin downer curveball in the 78-80 mph range and a high-80s cutter-slider hybrid. It’s Birdsong’s kick changeup, however, that looks to be the jewel of his repertoire. It has excellent vertical separation off of his fastball and it’s a good whiff-generating pitch. With opportunity and upside I believe Birdsong can break out.
Cristopher Sanchez, LHP, Phillies
Dylan White: In 2024, Cristopher Sanchez used a three-pitch mix over 181 innings to put up a near 5 fWAR season with all of his ERA estimators below 3.60. So far in spring training, he’s added 2 mph to his fastball, sitting over 96 mph, has tinkered with a new cutter, and has been carving up hapless spring batters. With a competitive Phillies team, it’s reasonably likely that Sanchez collects a few Cy Young votes.
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