Men’s College Basketball Best Bets:
The basketball gods have gifted us something we normally don’t get in the NCAA tournament: the four best teams all advanced and will face each other. First, there’s the rematch between Florida and Auburn, followed by a colossal clash of Duke and Houston. Let’s see what the T Shoe Index projects for these monstrous matchups Saturday evening.
Reminder on how to read the projections: If the spread is a positive number, that indicates the team on the left (Home, unless neutral site) is favored by TSI. If the spread is a negative, that indicates the team on the right (Away, unless neutral side) is favored by TSI. TSI total is the projected number of combined points in the game.
Here are my Final Four projections for Saturday:
Florida (-2.5) vs Auburn, O/U 159.5
I mentioned this on VSiN programming with Tim Murray last week. Auburn is one of the more fascinating teams in the whole tournament, because their metrics for the season are the best in the country, but those numbers have not been nearly as impressive over the last 5-10 games. Florida, conversely, is playing its best basketball of the season right now. If this game were played in January, I’d likely have Auburn as a 1.5-point favorite; however, as it stands, TSI makes Florida a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 155.
TSI Score Projection: 79-75 Florida
Bet: Under 159.5 (play to 158)
Duke (-5.5) vs Houston, O/U 136.5
Both of these teams are arguably playing their best basketball of the year; however, doing it with different approaches. Duke is #1 is offensive efficiency in the country, while Houston is #1 in defensive efficiency in the country. Think of it like the 2017 Warriors vs the Grit ‘N Grind Memphis Grizzlies. Both teams are excellent and demonstrate the beauty of basketball: there’s more than one way to successfully play this game. The numbers are relatively consistent for this matchup, giving Duke a 4-point edge on the season-long numbers but a 5-point edge in this game, with a total of 137.
TSI Score Projection: 71-66 Duke
Lean: Houston +5.5
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