Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
The extremes of life in Bubble Town, USA, can leave anyone with whiplash. A resume that looks to be on the rise one week can quickly crumble, and an ailing team can suddenly flip its NCAA Tournament outlook with a seismic win or two.
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Perhaps no conference better exemplifies this than the SEC. As of only a week ago, the historically dominant league had seen a gap building between the top nine secure locks and the five perilously positioned bubble squads. The conference looked more likely to receive 10 bids than the 12 or 13 it needed to break records.
Fast forward to this week, and suddenly that 14-team dream is back in play. Four SEC bubble hopefuls — Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Georgia — pulled off massive Q1 wins over the league’s top nine, defibrillating any weakening at-large hopes. We may yet get an SEC stampede on Selection Sunday.
The SEC bubblers are not the only ones that had big weeks, however. Indiana, lame duck coach and all, shellacked Purdue; San Diego State and Boise State took down Mountain West top dogs New Mexico and Utah State; and VCU, Drake and Cincinnati all picked up important victories. BYU vaulted itself above the fray entirely with a tremendous road win at Arizona. It was a bad week for those who decry each year’s current crop of at-large contenders as the “worst bubble ever.”
In less encouraging news, Baylor and (to a lesser extent) Gonzaga have slid down into true bubble land. The Bears, at just 16-12 overall, have taken down Disaster’s cell phone number and are considering making the call, while the Zags avoided true panic with a Tuesday night win at Santa Clara. Still, both are in the danger zone.
The lesson: If you are a fan of a team in this column, do not get comfortable with your present standing — good or bad. Fortunes can change quickly around these parts.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below:
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration – a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Clemson, Creighton, Louisville, Oregon, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech, UCLA
Up to Should Be In: BYU, Vanderbilt
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: Baylor, Gonzaga
Down to On the Fringe: Pitt
Dropped from On the Fringe: Bradley, Iowa, Kansas State, Santa Clara, USC
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ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: Pitt
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference SOS, seven wins away from Chapel Hill.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-10 record vs. Q1, well under .500 vs. Q1+Q2.
Looking Ahead: The Heels’ offense has found a groove over the last four games, pushing UNC back towards the true bubble mix. Unfortunately, their Q2 win at Florida State on Monday night was the best result of a four-game winning streak, and even victories against Miami (Saturday) and at Virginia Tech (Tuesday) will not change the Heels’ overall outlook. They must win those ahead of a high-stakes showdown with Duke on March 8.
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SMU
Profile Strengths: Solid record vs. Q1+Q2, no bad losses, excellent road/neutral mark.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins and no scheduled chances, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: With Saturday’s blowout loss at home to Clemson, it is highly likely SMU enters the ACC tournament without a single Q1 win. Nearly 75 percent of the Mustangs’ 21 wins are outside of the top two quadrants. Can an ACC school really get in with that kind of bottom-heavy resume? Letting SMU in while annually excluding many similar mid-major profiles would be controversial, to say the least. After holding off Cal on Wednesday, Andy Enfield’s team needs to complete a Bay Area sweep this weekend at Stanford and hope some of its opponents put up huge performances.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team.
Looking Ahead: The Demon Deacons took two more losses outside of Q1 over the past week, falling on the road to a disappointing NC State squad (Q2) and then at home against Virginia (Q3). The Deacs’ defense, their foundation for most of the season, failed them in two crucial spots. Those defeats undercut the primary strengths of Wake’s profile: a lack of bad losses. Steve Forbes’ squad is in dire straits now, and it must handle Notre Dame on Saturday. Then, Wake gets its ultimate home-run swing: a visit to Cameron Indoor and Duke on Big Monday.
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Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: BYU
In the Mix: Baylor, Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia
On the Fringe: Utah
Should Be In
BYU
What They Need: For any bubble team, the dream is to play so well that you elevate above the frantic fracas beneath you. By far the best way to do that is to nab a huge road win against an NCAA Tournament lock. The Cougars seized one of those precious jewels on Saturday at Arizona, validating what BYU’s quality metrics had been saying all along: This is a very good team. Overcoming a potential letdown spot in the middle of the week at shorthanded Arizona State only further backs up that notion. One more win likely locks BYU into the field.
In The Mix
Baylor
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, terrific quality metrics, five Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess 12 total losses, well under .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Welcome down to the bubble muck, Bears. An 0-2 week on the road — 76-74 at Colorado, 69-67 at Cincinnati — drops Baylor into the danger zone with just a 16-12 overall record. The two losses came by a total of four points, which means Baylor’s quality metrics are still in great shape, but this resume is that of a true bubbler. The Bears are now a less extreme version of the team that crushed them on the first night of the season, Gonzaga. They absolutely must stabilize this week in two winnable games: hosting Oklahoma State on Saturday, traveling to TCU next Tuesday. If not, a freefall out of the field is alarmingly realistic.
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Cincinnati
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, solid quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 1-9 vs. Q1, no headline victories, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Bearcats earned two vital home wins this week, knocking off the Texas two-step combo of TCU and Baylor. They have now won five of their last seven games to fight back into the conversation. Cincinnati can make a serious statement this weekend by winning at Houston, but it would require snapping an 11-game losing streak against the Cougars. More likely would be a 1-1 split of this week’s action, with Kansas State coming to Fifth Third Arena next Wednesday.
TCU
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, multiple wins against other bubble squads.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, well under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Horned Frogs’ momentum stalled as they lost two bubblicious road games at Cincinnati and West Virginia by convincing margins. They now need to win out and get one or two big victories in the Big 12 tournament to have any real at-large opportunity. A visit from UCF on Saturday will not move the needle, but perhaps a win over reeling Baylor next Tuesday could help TCU’s cause.
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Four Q1A wins (tied for best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Mountaineers continue to beat the teams they should (TCU at home by 18) and lose to the teams they should (Texas Tech on the road by 22). Their prior work against top opponents, especially away from home, gives them the breathing room to stay in the field via 1-1 weeks. A massive road trip to the Beehive State now looms; if the Mountaineers can post another 1-1 split while navigating the treacherous elevation of BYU (Saturday) and Utah (next Tuesday), they will step up to Should Be In status. At that point, they would have alleviated the risk of an end-of-season collapse.
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Big East
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s
Should Be In: UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
UConn
What They Need: The Huskies remained just slightly above the bubble frenzy after dispatching Georgetown on Wednesday night. Sunday at St. John’s was a missed opportunity to reach safer ground but not a damaging loss in any way. The Huskies have picked up enough key wins to be in solid shape (four Q1A wins is no small feat), so as long as they pick up another win or two, their three-peat dreams will last past Selection Sunday, at minimum.
In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, huge resume-topping W at Marquette.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor resume metrics, only one Q1 win, 4-8 road/neutral record.
Looking Ahead: Xavier fans, take a deep breath. After the Musketeers took care of Seton Hall this weekend, they now must lock in for the stretch that will decide their postseason fate. Hosting Creighton on Saturday offers a huge opportunity to add a key win, though the Bluejays are dancing on the Q1/Q2 border right now. The Musketeers’ road game at Butler next Wednesday is similarly toeing the threshold, as Butler is currently just outside the NET top 75. Xavier’s overall profile remains iffy (especially as its headlining Marquette win has deteriorated some in quality), so a 2-0 week is looking close to mandatory.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State
On the Fringe: None
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In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Need more overall wins, only a 4-11 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Mike Woodson refuses to go gentle into that good night. His Hoosiers raged, raged against the dying of the light, pulling off a massive (and convincing) home win over reeling rival Purdue and backing it up with a necessary win against Penn State. That 2-0 sequence launched them into many NCAA Tournament fields, while our own Joe Rexrode had them as his First Team Out (this week’s Bracket Watch was published prior to the Penn State win). Consistency has escaped Indiana this year, but the Hoosiers will need to find a way to split their upcoming Pacific Northwest road trip to remain in the thick of the at-large discussion.
Nebraska
Profile Strengths: Five Q1 wins, solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Weakening quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Cornhuskers got Berke Buyuktuncel back from an ankle injury on Big Monday, but they still fell just short of a huge Q1 win against Michigan at home. The streaky Huskers have vacillated between safe (when they were 12-2) to clearly out (12-8) to looking very good (16-8) to incredibly bubbly (17-11). Three games remain in the regular season, and 2-1 would likely get the job done. First, Nebraska must snap a two-game home losing streak against Minnesota on Saturday.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor overall record, well under .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Buckeyes are frantically bailing water out of their flooding vessel, and even a Wednesday night win at USC was not enough to feel comfortable. A 16-13 overall record is dangling on the cutoff of at-large contention, so the Buckeyes cannot mess around anymore. Their metrics have slid down into true danger territory, as well. They get a respite this weekend with no game before vital bubble brawls in the final week: hosting Nebraska next Tuesday, visiting Indiana for the season finale on Mar. 8.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Should Be In: Vanderbilt
In the Mix: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Vanderbilt
What They Need: Bubble teams, take notes. What the Commodores did over the last seven days is what people desperately want to see from at-large contenders. Vanderbilt picked off Ole Miss at home over the weekend and then filled in the only true vacancy on their resume: a high-level road win. Those two massive Q1 victories have the Dores bordering on Lock status, and a 20th victory will likely close the deal. They get two home chances to do so, with Missouri (Saturday) and Arkansas (next Tuesday) both coming to Memorial Gym.
In The Mix
Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Way below .500 against top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Bud Walton Arena did its job this week. Arkansas came back from a halftime deficit to cool off scorching Missouri on Saturday night, then survived a blown lead to outlast Texas in overtime on Wednesday. John Calipari’s squad is starting to look more and more likely to make the NCAA Tournament, barring a late swoon in three coin flip-type games. Two road games await: at South Carolina this weekend, at suddenly surging Vanderbilt next Tuesday.
Georgia
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, no losses outside of Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 3-11 vs. Q1, only 1-7 on the road.
Looking Ahead: When you’ve lost nine of your last 11, you need to make a statement to the powers that be that you actually do, in fact, belong in the NCAA Tournament. For Georgia, knocking off a presumed No. 1 seed in Florida is exactly that kind of statement. The Bulldogs joined Oklahoma, Arkansas and Vanderbilt in picking up a huge home win over the past week that has rejuvenated hopes for an unheard-of 14-bid season in the SEC. The job is far from finished, though, and Georgia now has two tricky road games ahead: at Texas on Saturday, at surprisingly feisty South Carolina next Tuesday.
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Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Three huge neutral-court wins, outstanding metrics, only two losses outside Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Starting to accumulate a lot of losses, tough schedule ahead.
Looking Ahead: Oklahoma badly needed wins, and the Sooners got a huge one, taking down Mississippi State on Saturday to halt a serious slide towards disaster. That one was nice, but the Sooners could not land the follow-up in Wednesday’s soul-crushing home loss to Kentucky. The split kept things somewhat steady, but the total loss count is inching ever higher. Unfortunately, another challenging week awaits: OU heads to Ole Miss on Saturday before hosting surging Mizzou next Wednesday.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The weekend was a mixture of bad news and worse news for the Longhorns. The bad: They got blown out at South Carolina, the first SEC team to lose to the Gamecocks all season. The worse news: Three other SEC bubblers (Oklahoma, Vandy, Arkansas) notched big wins. The week brought no respite, as the Horns got hooked in Fayetteville by the bubble rival Razorbacks and a fourth SEC at-large candidate, Georgia, notched a massive home win over Florida. Texas’ final three games are manageable, and it especially needs to handle the rejuvenated Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday in a cutline clash. A major needle-moving opportunity follows in a trip to Mississippi State next Tuesday.
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The Rest
Locks: Saint Mary’s
Should Be In: Memphis, New Mexico, Utah State
In the Mix: Boise State, Drake, George Mason, Gonzaga, San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Dayton, North Texas
Should Be In
Memphis
What They Need: Now at 23 wins with sparkling resume metrics, it is nearly impossible to picture the Tigers falling out of the field, even with a four-game losing streak to end their season. One more win — at UAB on Sunday in a Q2 opportunity, or at UTSA on Tuesday — would seal the deal. I’m being conservative here, but we will wait one more week to lock in the Tigers.
New Mexico
What They Need: The Lobos dropped their only game of the week and are now on a two-game skid. Fortunately, there is no shame in losing at San Diego State. They now have a major “get right” opportunity with a Q4 home game against Air Force, followed by a borderline Q1/Q2 game at Nevada next Tuesday. Avoiding a disastrous loss to the Falcons is important, and New Mexico realistically probably needs two more wins over its next four games to lock itself into the field.
Utah State
What They Need: The Aggies got the necessary split in two clashes with Mountain West tourney hopefuls, knocking off San Diego State over the weekend before losing at Boise State on Wednesday night. At 24-5 overall with an excellent record against the top two quadrants, Utah State is almost assuredly safe. One more win should be plenty for the Aggies, with their first chance coming in a toss-up Q1 game at Colorado State on Saturday.
In The Mix
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, resume metrics still slightly low.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos’ late rise into a true at-large contention continued this week, as they captured wins at Nevada and against Utah State to build an even more compelling case. They are now within reach of Leon Rice’s fourth straight NCAA Tournament bid, an unprecedented accomplishment at Boise State. The Broncos’ schedule this week holds two Q4 road games at Fresno State (Saturday) and Air Force (next Tuesday); they have to avoid a disastrous loss while cheering against their bubble rivals across the country.
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Drake
Profile Strengths: Gaudy overall record, two key power conference wins, sparkling road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Took two Q3 losses, limited big-game opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Two more road wins for the Bulldogs, who now have resume metrics definitely befitting an at-large team. The first victory, an overtime survival-of-the-fittest battle at Northern Iowa, added another Q2 win to Drake’s profile. All the Bulldogs have left before Arch Madness is to handle Missouri State on Saturday in the regular season finale.
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Competitive resume metrics, .500 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, zero wins over at-large caliber-teams, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots swung and missed in their biggest game of the season, crumbling in the final 10 minutes at VCU over the weekend. For a profile devoid of headlining wins, that may have been a death blow to their at-large hopes, even factoring in a Wednesday win over lackluster Fordham. Only GMU’s mysteriously decent resume metrics have them on my board still, but this candidacy is probably cooked without any real chances to move the needle.
Gonzaga
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: A second loss to WCC rival Saint Mary’s over the weekend pushed Gonzaga into concerning territory. Crucially, though, the Bulldogs avoided a second WCC sweep by smashing Santa Clara on the road on Tuesday night. That gave the Zags their first Q1 win since Nov. 18 and stabilized a concerning downward trajectory. If they can get another important road win at San Francisco on Saturday, they will likely avoid a true bubble flirtation.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Home run neutral-site win against Houston, elite nonconference SOS, 8-4 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: San Diego State had a strong 1-1 week, falling just short of a huge road win at Utah State but managing to bounce back with a home win over Mountain West leader New Mexico. That keeps the Aztecs comfortably on the right side of the bubble, but a dangerous closing slate with little upside still makes their path dicey. Road contests at feisty Wyoming (Saturday) and UNLV (Tuesday) do not offer much upside, but the Aztecs need to keep winning to stay ahead of other late-charging bubblers.
San Francisco
Profile Strengths: Clean resume with no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: The Dons have hung around the periphery of the bubble party, biding their time until their season-ending showdown with Gonzaga this coming Saturday. They added a Q2 win at feisty Oregon State late on Wednesday night, but the truth is that San Francisco probably cannot get an at-large bid without toppling the WCC powerhouse Zags. Also at stake in that game: the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament, and with it a bye all the way to the semifinals. It is truly make-or-break time for the upstart Dons.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall record and road/neutral mark, above .500 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Almost no Q1 games at all, Q4 loss, iffy resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: What a massive week for the Rams. First, they used a late scoring explosion to bury A-10 title contender George Mason in a vintage game for the Siegel Center atmosphere. They followed that up with a comfortable victory at crosstown rival Richmond, avoiding a bad loss and retaining control of the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the A-10 Tournament. VCU now has a more pedestrian week: two Q3 games, one at home (Davidson on Friday) and one on the road (Duquesne next Tuesday). Nothing is certain, but if the Rams keep winning, they will have a real chance to dance despite a nearly empty Q1 record.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Huge Q1A win at Big West foe UC San Diego, 3-2 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: Play with fire too many times, and you can get burned. UC Irvine has not been convincing in its recent Big West tilts, so a home loss to CSUN last Thursday probably should not have been surprising. That game may have ended the Anteaters’ at-large campaign, especially since they would have to lose again in the Big West tournament to even be in the at-large pool. However, their resume metrics are still strong — ahead of Ohio State, Texas, Boise State — so Russell Turner’s team can still hang out at the Bubble Watch party for now.
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UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record, quickly improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Two more games, two more blowouts for the Tritons. Beating Hawaii by 39 on Saturday night boosted UC San Diego to 35th in KenPom; only the much-maligned BPI is currently preventing Eric Olen’s team from having pristine quality metrics. Opportunity knocks on Thursday night, as the Tritons get their last Q2 test of the regular season: a road trip to CSUN, the Big West foe that just knocked off UC Irvine. Win there (and again on Saturday against Cal State Fullerton), and the UCSD at-large dream will have real legs.
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