Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
We here at The Athletic’s Bubble Watch aim to be an inclusive group. We try to feature as many teams as we can, encompassing the widest possible swath of NCAA Tournament hopefuls.
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That is all to say, we owe Kansas State an apology. The Wildcats were not even listed as “On the Fringe” in last week’s edition, and Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins took that personally. Kansas State barged its way into this column like a lavender-colored Kool-Aid Man thanks to Top 25 wins at home over Kansas and Arizona, a stunning turn for a team that seemed dead and buried just three weeks ago.
While the Little Apple Wildcats are this week’s biggest mover, they are certainly not the only climbers. We welcomed a new crop of teams to Lockdom this week, while a couple of others clawed closer to the field (see the new Movement summary below). Every week brings increased clarity to the still-foggy NCAA Tournament picture, and the focus will continue to narrow over the next seven days of results.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below:
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration – a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Michigan, Ole Miss, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
Up to Should Be In: New Mexico
Up to In the Mix: Boise State, Cincinnati, Kansas State
Added to On the Fringe: TCU
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Arizona State
Dropped from On the Fringe: LSU, Northwestern, Penn State, Utah
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ACC
Locks: Duke
Should Be In: Clemson, Louisville
In the Mix: North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: Pitt, Stanford
Should Be In
Clemson
What They Need: The Tigers took a giant step towards Lock status this week, sweeping Duke and UNC at Littlejohn Coliseum. Only the ACC’s weakness is keeping Clemson from moving all the way up to Lock status; the remaining schedule holds a multitude of bad loss opportunities. Still, a road win at Florida State this weekend would likely end any need for discussion here.
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Louisville
What They Need: Following two wins over ACC also-rans, the Cardinals can get to 20 wins, a solid barometer for making the dance, this Sunday at Notre Dame. They might not necessarily be a lock at that point given the ACC’s bad loss minefield, but a comfortable Selection Sunday is still the most likely outcome. Per KenPom, Louisville is favored by at least five points in every remaining contest, and leading scorer Chucky Hepburn returned to the lineup from a groin injury on Wednesday night.
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Third-ranked nonconference strength of schedule, five wins away from Chapel Hill.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-10 record vs. Q1, 6-10 vs. Q1/Q2, sliding metrics.
Looking Ahead: UNC survived a bubble battle with Pitt over the weekend, but a lifeless trip to Clemson on Monday proved to be a wasted opportunity for a team that is on the outside looking in by nearly all accounts. The Tar Heels have been moving the wrong way for a while now, dropping 20 spots in KenPom over the last month while going 2-5 overall. They need to stack wins leading up to their season-ending rematch against Duke.
Pitt
Profile Strengths: Balanced resume and quality metrics, strong nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: No surefire wins against the field, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: Two more losses — both on the road against bubble adversaries — have Pitt in extremely precarious territory. The Panthers have now lost eight of 10, including the 16-point home drubbing to Virginia for a Q3 blemish. The coming schedule offers no opportunities for forward movement, but Jeff Capel’s team just needs to remember what it feels like to win a game. Visits from Miami and Syracuse should provide that.
SMU
Profile Strengths: 5-5 mark vs. top two quadrants, no bad losses, 8-2 road/neutral.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, No. 262 nonconference SOS, no more shots at Duke.
Looking Ahead: SMU did what it had to do on Tuesday, taking care of putrid Pitt in a head-to-head bubble battle. That did nothing to fix the Mustangs’ glaring lack of headlining victories, but it was a necessary Q2 victory. Hosting Wake Forest this weekend presents a similar battle with another cutline rival, and a tricky trip to Notre Dame awaits next Wednesday. Andy Enfield’s team needs a gaudy record to offset its lack of Q1 triumphs.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Relatively clean resume (one loss outside of Q1), excellent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team.
Looking Ahead: After completing a sweep of the California regional office of the ACC, the Demon Deacons blew a 16-point lead against Florida State at home on Wednesday. That one currently registers as Wake’s first Q3 loss, and it sets back the Deacs’ postseason hopes considerably given that “no bad losses” was a huge part of their pitch. Fortunately, Steve Forbes’ squad can reenergize their NCAA Tournament aspirations with a road win at fellow bubble hopeful SMU on Saturday.
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Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas
Should Be In: Arizona, Baylor, Texas Tech
In the Mix: BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia
On the Fringe: Arizona State, TCU, UCF
Should Be In
Arizona
What They Need: Arizona’s narrow loss at the Octagon of Doom on Tuesday night leaves the door just ajar enough for a catastrophic crashout. Realistically, though, this team is much closer to earning a No. 2 seed than fighting for its bubble life, and notching a massive win over Houston on Saturday or at Baylor on Monday would lock up a bid.
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Baylor
What They Need: Last week, we hoped that the Bears could get to full health. They did — for all of five minutes against UCF, before losing starting center Josh Ojianwuna to a season-ending knee injury. Baylor did hang on to win that game, but it got overwhelmed at Houston without him on Monday night. The Bears are in danger of falling into true bubble territory, and though a Saturday/Monday homestand against West Virginia and Arizona holds little downside, the losses could continue piling up. Let’s check back in a week.
Texas Tech
What They Need: The Red Raiders lost over the weekend at Arizona, but they remain firmly on track for an at-large bid and a protected top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. A poor nonconference schedule and performance would be an issue if Texas Tech tumbled toward the cutline, but that is exceedingly unlikely. Getting to 20 wins — either on Saturday at Oklahoma State or Tuesday at TCU — would lock the Red Raiders into the field.
In The Mix
BYU
Profile Strengths: Tremendous quality metrics, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Resume metrics still shaky, No. 290 nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: BYU finally got a road win over an NCAA Tournament-caliber team, knocking off West Virginia in Morgantown on Tuesday. That strengthens a home-heavy profile that is otherwise shaping up well. The Cougars’ sterling predictive metrics indicate they are a dangerous team, and they can prove that in an upcoming homestand against the Kansas schools. Kansas State (Saturday) is currently hotter than the sun, and Kansas (Tuesday) represents a chance for BYU’s first Q1A win.
Cincinnati
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, improving metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 1-7 vs. Q1, no headline victories, No. 280 nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: After looking listless and broken for almost all of calendar year 2025, Cincinnati has ripped off a three-game winning streak to resuscitate its at-large hopes. The Bearcats’ resurgence might be the biggest moment for dodgeball since Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller squared off in 2004. Cincinnati’s profile still lacks true high-end wins, but several big chances remain, starting with Saturday’s trip to Ames to take on Iowa State.
Kansas State
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins (including three in Q1A), currently on fire as a team.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, overall record of 13-11 is still barely in the at-large range.
Looking Ahead: It is not often a rocket ship comes from off the Bubble Watch radar to demand prime position, but Kansas State is boiling lava hot. Six straight wins — including all four of the season’s Q1 conquests — have propelled the Wildcats into the postseason picture. The upcoming road trip to altitude (at BYU, at Utah) will test Jerome Tang’s team, which still needs to bolster its overall win total.
UCF
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics, two elite wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 3-11 in games in the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: This ship is starting to sail. I strongly debated kicking UCF down to the Fringe category after an 0-2 week. Neither loss was harmful in itself, but UCF’s overall record is now only two games above .500, putting the Knights in a bleak position for an at-large bid. The two top-end wins keep them here for now, but a loss at either Colorado or Oklahoma State over the next week will drag UCF out of real consideration.
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Four Q1A wins (best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: With a home split against Utah and BYU, West Virginia probably took a step ever so slightly backward this week. The Mountaineers need to make sure Javon Small is fully healthy, after the star guard got nicked up in the loss to the Cougars on Tuesday night. He will be especially vital for Saturday’s trip to take on Baylor’s deep and talented backcourt, followed by a visit from resurgent bubbler Cincinnati. The Mountaineers’ headliner wins keep them in good shape, but they must avoid taking on too many losses.
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Big East
Locks: Marquette, St. John’s
Should Be In: Creighton, UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: Georgetown, Villanova
Should Be In
Creighton
What They Need: Creighton’s admirable home split this past week (beat Marquette, lost to UConn) keeps the Bluejays comfortably in the NCAA Tournament picture. Sunday’s trip to Madison Square Garden is massive: completing a sweep over St. John’s could push Creighton close to Lock status, and perhaps even more importantly, it would keep the Bluejays’ Big East regular season title hopes alive.
UConn
What They Need: Welcome back, Liam McNeeley! The freshman’s outburst in Omaha on Tuesday night earned UConn a massive road win. The Huskies will be an interesting topic of discussion on Selection Sunday: How much should their middling play in McNeeley’s absence matter in terms of seeding? An at-large berth looks highly likely now — UConn is 4-0 in Q1A games! — and the version with McNeeley will be a terrifying opponent for whoever sees the Huskies’ name near theirs in the bracket.
In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, huge resume-topping W at Marquette.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor resume metrics, only one Q1 win, 3-7 road/neutral record.
Looking Ahead: Xavier is clinging to life after picking up its 10th loss of the season at Villanova on Saturday. The Muskies responded by handling Providence on the road on Wednesday night, but that is not much of a needle-mover. The next 10 days offer no upside, as the Musketeers face the Big East’s bottom three teams over that span. Any loss to that trio would probably drop Xavier to the outer fringes of at-large contention.
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Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should Be In: Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, UCLA
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State, USC
On the Fringe: Iowa
Should Be In
Maryland
What They Need: Since last week’s Bubble Watch, Maryland split games at Ohio State and against Rutgers, so no profound movement. Simply remaining steady will punch the Terps’ ticket, but Maryland’s resume metrics (average rank: 30.7) are low enough to avoid locking them into the field just yet. Thursday night’s trip to Nebraska could seal the deal, but at minimum, the Terps need to hold serve in College Park against Iowa on Sunday.
Oregon
What They Need: Oregon struggled through a five-game losing streak, but the Ducks’ overall profile remains strong due to outstanding work in nonconference play. Stabilizing the skid with a win over Northwestern on Tuesday was important and should help avoid the worst-case scenario. Oregon still has one more road trip to the Midwest, but Dana Altman’s Ducks need to worry about Rutgers, a talented potential spoiler, coming to town this Sunday first.
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UCLA
What They Need: What UCLA needs most is to stay out of the Central and Eastern time zones. The Bruins are now 0-5 when heading east after losing at Illinois on Tuesday night. Mick Cronin’s schedule gripes will surely only get louder. The Bruins are still in a cozy position, but figuring out their travel issues are probably necessary to go on an extended run in the postseason. Another Midwest road game awaits on Friday, against suddenly-alive Indiana.
In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Still lacking key wins, only a 3-10 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Indiana fans got what they wanted. No, that does not refer to the potentially season-changing win at Michigan State. Instead, the school finally announced the impending end to the Mike Woodson era, which makes any late surge the cherry on top of a “successful” season, in the eyes of many. A win over UCLA on Sunday could push the Hoosiers all the way into the field, a stunning development considering the vibe around the team all year.
Nebraska
Profile Strengths: Three high-end (Q1A) wins, very competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, six-game losing streak is an eyesore.
Looking Ahead: Nebraska nabbed another needle-moving win on Sunday against Ohio State. The current four-game winning streak has the Cornhuskers back comfortably on the right side of the bubble, as five Q1 wins and an 8-8 record against the top two quadrants are both great data points compared to the rest of the bubble. An ankle injury to lineup mainstay Berke Buyuktuncel is worrisome, particularly with four Q1 games on the horizon. Nebraska has to avoid another swoon like it had in January.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Shaky overall record (15-10), under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State played three times since our last edition, tallying two home wins against Washington and Maryland to go with a tough Sunday loss at Nebraska. For a bubble team, that’s a net positive: 1-1 in Q1 games, plus avoiding a Q3 home loss against the Huskies. The Buckeyes still sit a few slots above the cutline, and a home win over archrival (and Big Ten-leading) Michigan on Sunday could give Ohio State legitimate breathing room.
USC
Profile Strengths: High-end wins at Illinois and vs. Michigan State.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 5-10 against top two quadrants, poor metrics.
Looking Ahead: It was a net-neutral week for the Trojans. They whiffed on a big chance at Purdue without star guard Desmond Claude (why did Saint Thomas only take one shot?) and then took care of business back home against Penn State. USC still has some ground to make up to get inside the field, but getting Claude back in the fold is huge, and the remaining schedule offers several needle-moving opportunities. Hosting Minnesota on Saturday is simply a “hold serve” game, though.
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SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Should Be In: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri
In the Mix: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Kentucky
What They Need: Kentucky did everything it could this past week to leap up a level here, earning double-digit victories over South Carolina and Tennessee. That makes a sweep over the Vols, a bona fide No. 1 seed candidate. Everything about the Wildcats’ profile screams, “Lock!” The lone pesky issue is Lamont Butler’s aggravation of his shoulder injury. Would an extended swoon without Butler send the Cats to the NIT? Almost certainly not at this point, but I will humbly ask them to secure one more win before elevating them. UK travels to Texas on Saturday and hosts Vanderbilt next Wednesday.
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Mississippi State
What They Need: The Bulldogs are now 0-4 against the SEC’s four No. 1 seed candidates after Tuesday’s home loss to shorthanded Florida. There’s no shame in that, but they could have moved to Lock status by toppling the Gators. Instead, Mississippi State still has to finish the job down the stretch. The upcoming schedule does not relent: Mississippi State heads to Ole Miss for the EBOB (Egg Bowl of Basketball, trademark pending) and then hosts scorching-hot Texas A&M.
Missouri
What They Need: The Tigers missed a huge chance against Texas A&M over the weekend, falling to a dramatic Wade Taylor 3 just before the final buzzer. Thus, the journey to official Lock status remains ongoing, even following Wednesday night’s win over Oklahoma. Dennis Gates’ team still only needs a couple wins to feel fully comfortable, and sweeping the upcoming week (at Georgia on Saturday, hosting surging Alabama next Wednesday) would settle the issue. Even 1-1 might do the trick — we’ll revisit next Thursday.
In The Mix
Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home (at Kentucky, Michigan in NYC).
Profile Weaknesses: Only 4-8 in top two quadrant games, simply need more wins.
Looking Ahead: Saturday’s near-comeback against Alabama would have put Arkansas in stunningly prime position. Instead, though, that was a mostly harmless miss against an elite foe, and the Razorbacks did what they needed to against LSU. Two huge road opportunities now await at Texas A&M and No. 1 Auburn. A win in either would push Arkansas into nearly every bracketologist’s field.
Georgia
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, no losses outside of Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 2-9 vs. Q1, only 1-6 on the road.
Looking Ahead: With 14 teams jockeying for at-large position, someone in the SEC was inevitably going to feel the squeeze. Georgia is unfortunately facing that dilemma right now. The Dawgs have lost seven of nine, and their only two wins in that span are at home against the two SEC bottom-feeders, South Carolina and LSU. They need to start winning games again, and hosting Missouri on Saturday presents a chance to reverse their downward momentum.
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Three huge neutral-court wins, outstanding metrics, one loss outside Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Starting to accumulate a lot of losses, tough schedule ahead.
Looking Ahead: Oklahoma took two more losses as big underdogs this week, falling at home to Tennessee and on the road at Missouri. The Sooners should still be fine given their bona fides, but the current 3-8 mark in the SEC is going to disgust some observers. Beating LSU this weekend is a must, and stealing one at what could be a shorthanded Florida next Tuesday would be a major boost to a team feeling the brunt of the overloaded SEC.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Lagging nonconference SOS, fading resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Longhorns are playing with fire. Outside of back-to-back home wins against Missouri and Texas A&M in January, this has been a thoroughly pedestrian team, and the current three-game losing streak has Texas setting up shop in the town square of Bubble City, USA. Snagging another high-end win against Kentucky (which will likely be without Lamont Butler) on Saturday looks paramount before a week off to regroup for a critical final five contests.
Vanderbilt
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, no bad losses, headliner wins vs. Kentucky and Tennessee.
Profile Weaknesses: No key road/neutral wins, awful nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Commodores held firm this week, getting a vital win against fellow SEC bubbler Texas before falling short against an angry No. 1 Auburn squad. Vandy now enters a critical stretch: the ‘Dores go to Tennessee and Kentucky, and their home-heavy resume could really use a signature road triumph. Losing both would not harm Vandy’s chances, per se, but Mark Byington’s team would be running out of chances to prove itself outside of Nashville.
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The Rest
Locks: None
Should Be In: Gonzaga, Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
In the Mix: Boise State, Drake, George Mason, San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Bradley, Dayton, North Texas, Oregon State, Santa Clara
Should Be In
Gonzaga
What They Need: Gonzaga rebounded from its disappointing loss at Saint Mary’s by winning two WCC games by a combined 38 points. Gonzaga’s resume metrics are equal to bubble teams like UC Irvine, SMU and Indiana (though the Zags’ predictives are in a different stratosphere), so taking care of business against a solid San Francisco team on Thursday night is more crucial than one might expect. A home date with Pepperdine follows before the Zags’ pivotal final four games.
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Memphis
What They Need: Memphis tasted the sweet nectar of revenge this weekend. Penny Hardaway’s squad took down Temple, who remains responsible for the Tigers’ only loss in league play. The schedule now brings two Q3 road tests, at South Florida on Thursday night and at Wichita State on Sunday. The Tigers should be in the field thanks to outstanding resume metrics, but emphatically crushing some of their remaining foes (and thus, improving their predictive metrics) would do wonders for their seed, as well.
New Mexico
What They Need: After the Lobos coolly disposed of Air Force and Wyoming, they now hold a distinct honor: the only “Should Be In” team with two losses outside of the top two quadrants. Fortunately, their work against top competition has been superb, as evidenced by a 9-2 record against Q1 + Q2. New Mexico now embarks on a massive stretch for both seeding and the Mountain West race, starting with a visit from Utah State on Sunday.
Saint Mary’s
What They Need: The Gaels are the rare team to play three times since we last published. A loss at San Francisco raised mild alarm bells, but Randy Bennett’s team immediately rebounded with a huge win at Oregon State on Saturday. Then, Saint Mary’s completed an important sweep of Santa Clara (though this one did not include a 30-0 run like the first game) to further consolidate its hold on an at-large spot and the WCC regular season title race. The Gaels’ back-loaded WCC slate continues with a visit from Washington State on Saturday before an easier matchup with cellar-dweller Portland next Wednesday.
Utah State
What They Need: Jerrod Calhoun’s Aggies racked up two more wins this past week to improve to 22-3 overall. They are also 3-0 in Quad 1 games and have no bad losses. Their resume metrics are fantastic, and a win at Mountain West title rival New Mexico on Sunday could pump the Aggies up near Lock status. That’s especially true if USU follows it up with a win over a spunky San Jose State team next Wednesday. At that point, Utah State could probably lose five straight to end the season and still dance at 24-8.
In The Mix
Drake
Profile Strengths: Gaudy overall record, two key power conference wins, sparkling road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, limited big-game opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Drake survived two challenges this week, including needing overtime against Indiana State on Saturday. The Bulldogs are now on their second 11-game winning streak of the season. This profile is the epitome of a mid-major at-large, but Ben McCollum’s squad has great resume numbers and has been the model of consistency for nearly the entire season. Completing a sweep of Bradley on Saturday would lend even more credibility to Drake’s already-compelling NCAA Tournament case.
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots continued their winning ways, dominating Rhode Island over the weekend and surviving a near-collapse at Saint Louis on Tuesday. That triumph over the Billikens marked George Mason’s third overtime win in Atlantic 10 play. GMU is still on the outside looking in, but sweeping the next two Saturdays — vs. Saint Joseph’s and at VCU — could shift that standing.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Home run neutral-site win against Houston, No. 9 nonconference SOS, 8-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss, limited win opportunities compared to power conference bubble rivals.
Looking Ahead: San Diego State has now played San Jose State twice this season. The Aztecs have lost the first halves by a combined score of 83-49. Fortunately, they dominated the second halves 91-56 and came away with two narrow victories to avoid Q3 losses. A weekend Q2 loss to Colorado State was a missed opportunity, but the Aztecs must now focus on Saturday’s Q2 bubble battle with Boise State. Completing the sweep of the Broncos would keep San Diego State in the field.
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San Francisco
Profile Strengths: Clean resume with no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only 1-4 vs. Q1.
Looking Ahead: The Dons earned a lasting spot in this space with this past week’s sweep of Saint Mary’s and at Loyola Marymount. They can really press the issue Thursday night at Gonzaga, where a win could leapfrog San Francisco into most NCAA Tournament projections. Even if they miss that chance, the season-ending swing of at Oregon State/vs. Gonzaga will still present a big opportunity.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall record and road/neutral mark, above .500 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Paltry 0-1 mark vs. Q1, Q4 loss, iffy resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: VCU continued its uphill battle to claim an at-large bid without a Q1 victory. This past Friday’s win at Dayton is right on the threshold (arbitrary cutoffs!), but the Rams still need to make a quantity-over-quality case to the selection committee. A road victory at George Washington Wednesday night helped build that argument, and that’s all VCU can do: keep winning. The Rams now get a weekend off before hosting UMass next Wednesday.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Extremely competitive resume metrics, 3-1 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: It was a rough week for UC Irvine. First, the Anteaters needed overtime to edge past sub-300-ranked foe Long Beach State last Thursday. Then, they fell by 18 points to top Big West challenger UC San Diego at home on Saturday. UC Irvine’s resume metrics keep them in the at-large picture, but the margin for error is now nearly nonexistent. UC Irvine has to get back to its winning ways Thursday night against UC Santa Barbara, followed by a quick (and dangerous) trip to the islands to battle Hawaii on Saturday night.
UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities, still need to improve metrics.
Looking Ahead: Last week, we asked UC San Diego to avenge its two Big West losses. Consider it done, as the Tritons demolished both UC Riverside and UC Irvine (at Irvine!) for a gargantuan week. UC San Diego now has a real path to an at-large bid, but it probably involves winning out in the regular season against a tricky Big West slate. First up: a trip to Cal State Bakersfield on Thursday and hosting UC Davis on Saturday.
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