Men’s college basketball bubble watch: Who needs to close strong in mad dash to March?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Judgment day approaches for the college basketball world. On March 16, just over five weeks from now, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee will gather behind closed doors to decide the fate of the greatest postseason in sports. That braintrust will bless 37 teams with at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament and break the hearts of many programs just beyond the cutline.

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At this point, with roughly 10 games remaining for most teams, a large group of Division I teams can still call themselves tournament hopefuls. Even Indiana’s torch-and-pitchfork-bearing fan base can realistically hope to hear the Hoosiers’ name called on Selection Sunday.

We’re here to help you make sense of the ever-evolving situation around the bubble. Who can clear their schedules for an opening weekend trip? And who still has a long way to go toward making that dream a reality? Dive in below for a conference-by-conference breakdown of where teams stand.

For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s Bracket Watch. But first, some Bubble Watch ground rules:

  • Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
  • Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
  • In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
  • On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
  • Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
  • Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.

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ACC

Locks: Duke
Should Be In: Clemson, Louisville
In the Mix: North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: Stanford

Should Be In

Clemson
What They Need: Most of all, the Tigers need to avoid more performances like Tuesday’s triple-overtime loss to Georgia Tech. Adding a Quadrant 3 loss to the ledger pushes Clemson down closer to the bubble mix, and the ACC schedule presents several more chances to add another bad loss or two. Fortunately, the Tigers can heal all wounds if they take down Duke at Littlejohn Coliseum on Saturday.

Louisville
What They Need: Louisville is in a strange spot. As things currently stand, the Cardinals are comfortably in the field and wearing white in the first round as the higher seed. But their schedule is such that improving their profile is nearly impossible. Louisville has more Q4 games remaining (one) than Q1 games (zero), and three possibly harmful Q3 games lurk, as well. That lack of upside means it’s hard for Louisville to go anywhere but down unless it dominates to the finish line.

In The Mix

North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses outside the top two quadrants, third-ranked nonconference strength of schedule, five wins away from Chapel Hill.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-9 record vs. Q1, 5-10 vs. Q1/Q2, sliding metrics.
Looking Ahead: At just three games over .500, UNC’s overall record is a problem. Yes, the schedule has been wildly difficult, but at some point, you have to win games. The neutral-court victory over UCLA has aged quite well, but the same cannot be said for the comeback win against Dayton in Maui. A massive few days loom for the Tar Heels, as they get a revenge shot at Pitt on Saturday and a needle-moving chance at Clemson next Tuesday. And the great equalizer is the season-ending home date with Duke. But UNC must win enough before then for it to matter.

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Pitt
Profile Strengths: Six combined Q1/Q2 wins, balanced resume and quality metrics, strong nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: No surefire wins against the field (West Virginia, Ohio State, UNC most likely), picked up an eyesore Q3 loss on Monday.
Looking Ahead: Viewed completely in a vacuum, Pitt is probably lurking right around the cutline. But the Panthers have lost six of their last eight in a conference that may only get three or four bids, and their worst performance of the year came in their most recent game (a blowout Q3 loss to Virginia). They also do not get a home swing at Duke. Their next two games — at UNC, at SMU — will decide whether Pitt slides out of consideration entirely.

SMU
Profile Strengths: 5-5 mark vs. top two quadrants, no bad losses, 7-2 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, No. 264 nonconference SOS, no more shots at Duke.
Looking Ahead: The Mustangs have demolished inferior competition all season, but they possess zero victories over anyone qualifying for “In the Mix” (or better) in this Bubble Watch. The Ponies likely need to go 3-1 in remaining games against Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson and Stanford while avoiding any bad losses.

Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Very clean resume (no losses outside Q1), solid resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful quality metrics, only one win over a surefire tournament team.
Looking Ahead: Wake Forest is the epitome of a bubble team. Predictive rankings place them well below tournament-caliber, but they have done just enough to consistently hang around the cutline. A near-miss at home against Duke could prove costly in the long-term. The Demon Deacons need to take care of business against non-tournament teams at Cal and vs. Florida State before a pivotal bubble battle at SMU.

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Big 12

Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas
Should Be In: Arizona, Baylor, Texas Tech
In the Mix: Arizona St., BYU, UCF, West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, Utah

Should Be In

Texas Tech
What They Need: The Red Raiders are nearing lock status thanks to a seven-game winning streak that has featured three marquee wins (including Saturday at Houston, arguably the nation’s best win). So long as Texas Tech wins two more games the rest of the season, the Red Raiders will be dancing. But for a team that lost at home to UCF and to St. Joseph’s on a neutral floor, nothing is guaranteed.

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Arizona
What They Need: The Wildcats have six Q1 wins and zero losses outside of the top quadrant. Like Texas Tech, you could justifiably label Arizona a lock. Tommy Lloyd’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and only one even remotely harmful game lurks on the slate (a Q3 game vs. Utah on Feb. 26). Another couple of wins at any point between now and the conference tournament would seal the deal.

Baylor
What They Need: First and foremost, the Bears need to get healthy. Perhaps that will never happen for Langston Love, but at least Jeremy Roach returned to the backcourt on Tuesday night. Baylor’s resume metrics are low enough to raise some concern, putting it only just above the true bubbly squads. Going at least 5-4 to finish the regular season would be highly advisable, starting with Saturday’s home game against hyper-bubbly UCF.

In The Mix

Arizona State
Profile Strengths: Best wins are away from home, No. 27 nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 6-9 vs. top two quadrants, overall metrics and record are lagging.
Looking Ahead: The bad news for the Sun Devils: They picked up a Q3 loss on Tuesday night at home against Kansas State. The good news: If Kansas State continues to play well, that will be a Q2 loss very soon. Still, ASU is moving the wrong way, having lost seven of its last nine games. The Sun Devils might need to sweep their looming road trip to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to stay in real contention.

BYU
Profile Strengths: Tremendous quality metrics, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Lacking a true signature win (especially away from home), No. 290 nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: Predictive metrics adore the Cougars, and their offense is a joy to watch. But their tournament case is on unstable ground with falling resume numbers and zero headliner “Q1A” wins atop their team sheet. A cross-country road trip to Cincinnati and West Virginia now awaits, and BYU would do well to at least manage a split to avoid some uncomfortable conversations.

UCF
Profile Strengths: Strong resume metrics, two elite wins (at Texas Tech, vs. Texas A&M).
Profile Weaknesses: Only 3-9 vs. the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Quite simply, UCF needs more wins. The Knights have two sterling victories carrying their case, but supplementing those with some Q2 resume heft is mandatory. The schedule will eventually provide those chances, but first, UCF gets two more home run swings at Baylor and versus Iowa State.

West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Four Q1A wins (best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If you were to rank all of my In the Mix teams, West Virginia would be at or near the top. Few teams in the entire country, much less in bubble contention, can match the Mountaineers’ collection of top-end wins. Plus, the resume is free of any worrisome losses, so long as Arizona State does not crater. The ‘Eers are headed for a bid as long as they continue to hold serve in games they should win, starting with a home game against Utah this weekend.

Big East

Locks: Marquette, St. John’s
Should Be In: Creighton, UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: Georgetown, Villanova

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Should Be In

Creighton
What They Need: Greg McDermott has done a masterful job reshaping this team after the Pop Isaacs injury. The Bluejays have now won 10 of their last 11 to surge toward NCAA Tournament safety. Two huge chances now await Creighton, as Marquette and UConn come to Omaha. Take down both, and the Bluejays may move up to Lock status — while simultaneously giving themselves a shot at the Big East regular season title.

UConn
What They Need: UConn’s Maui Invitational faceplant sent up alarm bells, but the Huskies have more than recovered since then, racking up a bevy of huge wins. Saturday’s impressive performance at Marquette was the latest high-end conquest. With freshman forward Liam McNeeley due back imminently, the Huskies should sew up a bid in short order, even if their leaky defense poses postseason questions.

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In The Mix

Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, huge resume-topping W at Marquette.
Profile Weaknesses: Lagging resume metrics, only one Q1 win, 3-7 road/neutral record.
Looking Ahead: The only Big East squad truly in the thick of Bubble Land, the Musketeers need to continue to supplement their road victory at Marquette. Knocking off UConn in Cincinnati was a start, and road trips to Villanova and Providence can bolster the iffy resume metrics. The long-term concern for the Musketeers: They have only one remaining chance against the league’s top four (hosting Creighton on March 1).

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue
Should Be In: Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, UCLA, Wisconsin
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio St., USC
On the Fringe: Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State

Should Be In

Maryland
What They Need: With five Q1 wins and a clean resume with no Q3/Q4 losses, the Terps are essentially already there. They finally nabbed two key road wins in late January to fill in a small hole on their resume, and the remaining schedule does not offer much in the way of potential bad loss landmines. Even a 2-7 slide to close the regular season probably gets it done, considering what Maryland has already accomplished.

Michigan
What They Need: Some of Michigan’s recent wins have not been pretty — one in OT, three others by 11 combined points — but they were wins nonetheless. The Wolverines are clawing their way towards Lockdom, boasting a clean resume, pristine metrics, and a couple top-end road wins (at UCLA, at Wisconsin). With nine regular season games left (eight of which are Q1), a mega crisis is still theoretically possible. Though that world is exceedingly unlikely, I’ll wait to etch Michigan’s tournament bid into stone until Dusty May and company capture another win or two.

Oregon
What They Need: Oregon has been a peculiar case all season. The Ducks have been rock stars in close games, and a staggering eight Q1 wins (still the second-most in the country, behind only Auburn) should punch their ticket. But lagging quality metrics are concerning, especially considering Oregon has lost five of its last six games. The Ducks need to make sure that slide does not turn into a full-on collapse.

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UCLA
What They Need: After a four-game losing streak to start January during a brutal travel stretch, the Bruins are cooking. UCLA’s lack of bad losses and six Q1 wins have it set up to challenge for a high seed over the next month — provided the Bruins can handle two more cross-country trips. The first of those, to Illinois and Indiana, commences after UCLA hosts Penn State over the weekend.

Wisconsin
What They Need: This is, admittedly, a hyper-conservative assessment of Wisconsin’s status. With sublime metrics and 11 Q1+Q2 wins, it’s nearly impossible to picture the Badgers getting left out of the NCAA Tournament field. Even the doomsday scenario of losing out through the Big Ten tournament and an 18-14 overall record might be good enough. Snag a win at Iowa this weekend to seal the deal, Badgers.

In The Mix

Indiana
Profile Strengths: Useful resume metrics, zero losses outside Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Lack of key wins, only a 2-9 record against Q1.
Looking Ahead: Indiana may be struggling (lost six of seven) and have a coach squarely on the hot seat, but the Hoosiers could still end up playing in the NCAA Tournament. They have what I like to call an “upwardly mobile” profile, completely devoid of blemishes and only lacking in big wins needed to suddenly look extremely promising. The schedule provides: Indiana’s next four games are all Q1 opportunities, three of which are at home. Splitting those games would breathe real life into IU’s postseason hopes.

Nebraska
Profile Strengths: Three high-end (Q1A) wins, very competitive metrics
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, six-game losing streak is an eyesore
Looking Ahead: Nebraska looked dead — until it didn’t. A six-game slump in January seemed destined to doom the Cornhuskers to the NIT. They dug deep in an overtime win over Illinois last week, though, and backed it up with a road win at Oregon over the weekend. Imminent home clashes against Ohio State and Maryland could vault Nebraska comfortably into the field.

Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus (at Purdue, Kentucky on a neutral court), great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Shaky overall record (13-9), under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State has been outstanding of late, backing up its stunning comeback victory at Purdue with two blowout wins over Iowa and at Penn State. The Buckeyes have more opportunities ahead, but because of the iffy overall record, they have to keep finding ways to come out ahead in coin-flip matchups like upcoming showdowns against Maryland and at Nebraska.

USC
Profile Strengths: High-end wins at Illinois and vs. Michigan State.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 5-8 against top two quadrants, Q3 loss to Cal.
Looking Ahead: A crushing last-second loss at Northwestern robbed the Trojans of a win that might have pushed them into the field. A colossal Friday night upset at Purdue might still get that done. As it stands, USC’s metrics are as bubbly as can be. The best sign for USC is that it is clearly playing better over the last month, and the remaining schedule offers chances to turn that improvement into a bid.

SEC

Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee
Should Be In: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
In the Mix: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt
On the Fringe: LSU

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Should Be In

Kentucky
What They Need: As any Kentucky observer will tell you, what these Wildcats need is to fix their ghastly defense. Getting Lamont Butler healthy would help, but his timeline for return is extremely unclear. Kentucky, loser of four of its last five, must snap out of its current funk, and the friendly confines of Rupp Arena offer a chance to do just that. Last-place South Carolina comes to town over the weekend, and then UK gets the opportunity to complete a sweep of Tennessee on Tuesday. The Wildcats have the requisite high-end wins plus terrific metrics, but they still need more overall wins to clinch a bid.

Mississippi State
What They Need: The Bulldogs have not won a game in regulation since Jan. 7. They are just 2-5 overall in that span. It goes to show how strong the SEC is — and how well MSU performed in nonconference play — that Chris Jans’ team is still looking very likely to dance. Eight of MSU’s nine remaining games are slated to be Q1, so there’s no risk of bad losses. Two or three more wins is all it should take.

Missouri
What They Need: Like most of this group in the SEC, Missouri is probably two wins of any kind away from lock status. A soft nonconference schedule would be an issue if the Tigers landed near the bubble, but the SEC results so far have been excellent. Dennis Gates’ redemption season has two upcoming home dates with Texas A&M and Oklahoma to notch additional significant league victories.

Ole Miss
What They Need: The Rebels notched another massive win on Tuesday night, dominating Kentucky for 40 minutes. Chris Beard is now in outstanding shape to coach his first NCAA Tournament game since 2022. Ole Miss likely only needs another win or two to punch its ticket, and the upcoming schedule looks amenable with clashes against the SEC’s two worst teams, LSU and South Carolina (albeit both on the road).

Texas A&M
What They Need: The Aggies are as close to a surefire NCAA Tournament participant as a non-Lock can get. But the disaster scenario of losing out through the SEC Tournament to 17-15 would at least make for a discussion. Texas A&M can elevate to the Lock category with a win, any win, with the first opportunities being at Missouri on Saturday and vs. Georgia next Tuesday.

In The Mix

Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home (at Kentucky, Michigan in NYC).
Profile Weaknesses: Only 4-8 against top two quadrants, simply need more wins.
Looking Ahead: John Calipari’s Razorbacks are not dead yet after his homecoming triumph in Lexington this past weekend. Arkansas still faces an arduous road ahead, though, particularly with star freshman Boogie Fland sidelined with injury. Sweeping the upcoming homestand against Alabama and LSU would clearly move the needle, though.

Georgia
Profile Strengths: Very strong metrics, no losses outside of Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 2-7 vs. Q1, only 1-5 on the road.
Looking Ahead: Georgia is currently on the right side of the bubble, due in large part to its admirable work in Athens. Add in a November neutral-site win over current fireball St. John’s, and the Bulldogs are in good shape despite losing five of their last seven. When four of those losses are to teams in contention to earn a No. 1 seed, it’s hard to fault the Dawgs too much. Another big home opportunity awaits on Saturday, as a reeling Mississippi State comes to town for a Bulldog-on-Bulldog battle.

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Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Three huge neutral-court wins, outstanding metrics, no losses outside Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Nothing, really.
Looking Ahead: The Sooners could easily be promoted to the Should Be In category. Everything about their resume says they belong. Their problem, though, is that they have trended down in league play and have an immensely difficult schedule remaining, starting with games vs. Tennessee (Saturday) and at Missouri (Wednesday). How many league losses can they sustain? Where does an OU team stand that went undefeated in the nonconference but, say, 5-13 against a terrifying SEC? OU fans hope we never find out.

Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics and solid resume metrics, four Q1 wins
Profile Weaknesses: No. 274 nonconference SOS
Looking Ahead: With a weak nonconference schedule that only featured one Q1 game (a loss), Texas did not leave itself much room for error in SEC play. The strength of the league has helped, though, and the Longhorns quickly accumulated three massive wins against a wild gantlet. The schedule now softens (as much as an SEC schedule can, at least), giving the Longhorns a chance to build out its resume. Of course, heading to Vandy (Saturday) and hosting Alabama (Tuesday) are not exactly walks in the park.

Vanderbilt
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, no bad losses, headliner wins vs. Kentucky and Tennessee.
Profile Weaknesses: No key road/neutral wins, No. 329 nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Commodores missed a huge chance on Tuesday night, losing at Walter Clayton-less Florida. As it stands, all of Vandy’s best work has been done at home, and nonconference wins over Nevada and TCU have deteriorated somewhat. A significant chunk of the Dores’ case is still to be made, though, with eight of their final nine games residing comfortably in Q1. Two more home chances loom: Texas on Saturday, plus another court-storming opportunity against No. 1 Auburn on Tuesday.

The Rest

Locks: None
Should Be In: Gonzaga, Memphis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
In the Mix: Drake, George Mason, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Boise State, Bradley, Dayton, North Texas, Oregon State, Santa Clara

Should Be In

Gonzaga
What They Need: Most importantly, the Zags need to start winning. This is not a typical Gonzaga team with a gaudy record, and the Bulldogs have whiffed on most of their biggest opportunities (2-6 in Q1 games). Their quality metrics remain sterling, and KenPom makes them a favorite in every remaining regular season contest. That portends a smooth ride to a bid, but continuing to underperform against WCC foes could make things dicier than expected on Selection Sunday.

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Memphis
What They Need: Penny Hardaway’s squad has accomplished more than enough to hear its name called on Selection Sunday. A daunting nonconference schedule set the Tigers up for success, and their 10-3 Q1+Q2 record easily overshadows one measly Q3 home loss. Memphis’ risk is that the struggling AAC offers only landmines: of the Tigers remaining eight games, seven are either Q3 or Q4.

Saint Mary’s
What They Need: The Gaels’ continued torching of the WCC has them creeping closer to Selection Sunday security. Getting the coveted win over Gonzaga over the weekend was huge. Nebraska sneaking into the NET’s top 50 helps, as well, as it gives the Gaels another Q1 win. The schedule still holds five tests against bubble-or-better teams, starting with a trip over the bay to San Francisco on Thursday.

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Utah State
What They Need: Utah State narrowly avoided a two-game losing streak by scraping by Wyoming on Tuesday night. That leaves the Aggies at 20-3 overall and in tremendous shape for an at-large bid. They have no bad losses and a 7-3 record against the top two quadrants. Simply holding serve against an up-and-down Mountain West docket would get USU to the finish line.

In The Mix

Drake
Profile Strengths: Gaudy record, head-to-head bubble win vs. Vanderbilt, 10-1 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q4 loss, limited big-game opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Ben McCollum’s ascent from Division II has gone better than anyone could have imagined. If the Bulldogs can win out to the Arch Madness title game, a 30-3 team with solid metrics missing the Big Dance would be a travesty. All the Bulldogs can do is take care of business in the MVC (and eventually root hard against bid stealers in other leagues).

George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The Patriots sit atop the A-10 standings in Tony Skinn’s second season in charge. Unfortunately, the league is down enough that winning the regular season title would not guarantee a bid by itself. George Mason needs to maintain its winning ways until a duel at VCU on Feb. 22, the true barometer of its at-large chances.

New Mexico
Profile Strengths: Very strong group of wins away from home, 8-2 record vs. Q1+Q2.
Profile Weaknesses: One loss each in Q3 and Q4 .
Looking Ahead: Despite two bad losses, New Mexico is on the high end of the In the Mix spectrum. Neutral-site wins over UCLA and USC are aging well, and last Saturday’s triumph at Utah State entrenched the Lobos as the favorite for the Mountain West regular season title. Adding two more wins this week (at Air Force, vs. Wyoming) would likely edge New Mexico up to Should Be In status.

San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Home run neutral-site win against Houston, 5-4 record against top two quadrants, No. 10 nonconference SOS, 7-2 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling metrics, took a Q3 loss to UNLV, limited win opportunities compared to power conference bubble rivals.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs’ admirable accomplishments against an imposing nonconference slate have them in a strong position. The Mountain West offers a mix of solid win opportunities and landmine bad losses, as represented by a Q1 chance at Colorado State Saturday followed closely by a dangerous Q3 game at San Jose State next Tuesday. Win the ones they should, plus an extra key victory or two, and SDSU could get more comfortable.

San Francisco
Profile Strengths: Clean resume with no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: No Q1 wins, metrics are all on the border of at-large consideration.
Looking Ahead: We’re including San Francisco within the In The Mix category because it has a major opportunity against Saint Mary’s Thursday night. If they fail to avoid a sweep against their Bay Area rival, though, the Dons will drop to the fringes of the discussion. They do still have both Gonzaga meetings to come, so chances to make a statement still linger.

VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall record and 6-5 road/neutral, quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Paltry 0-1 mark vs. Q1, Q4 loss, low resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Rams are looking at an uphill climb despite a gaudy 18-5 record. They do not have a signature win, and their only real chance to get one — Friday night at Dayton — may not even be a Q1 game when all is said and done. VCU’s best chance is to stack more wins, find a way to secure the A-10 regular season title, and cheer against the other bubblers.

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UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Extremely competitive resume metrics, 3-1 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Big West is arguably having its best year ever. Its most likely path to punching two NCAA Tournament tickets is if the 20-3 Anteaters win out until the Big West title game, which would include sweeping fellow top 60 NET squad UC San Diego this weekend. UC Irvine lacks a true marquee win, but its sheer quantity of victories plus sterling resume metrics could make for an interesting case for the committee.

UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State.
Profile Weaknesses: Metrics are on the fringe of at-large contention, only one Q1/Q2 win vs. two Q3/Q4 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Tritons’ at-large case likely comes down to this week. They need to avenge both Big West losses against UC Riverside and UC Irvine to have a realistic shot at not needing the league’s auto-bid. Even a split likely means UCSD falls out of this category.

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(Photo of West Virginia’s Javon Small and Oregon’s TJ Bamba: Peter Aiken, Nic Antaya / Getty Images)

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