Men’s college basketball top 25: As March opens, the crowded race for No. 1 seeds is on

Welcome to March.

This men’s college basketball season has featured record-breaking offensive efficiency — teams are scoring at an all-time rate — and rare depth at the top. If the metrics have their way, this could be one of the best (and most entertaining) NCAA Tournaments ever. That’s my hope. Everyone loves upsets, but my favorite NCAA Tournaments are when elite teams advance to the second and third weekends and we get high-level games because of it.

Now here’s the data that suggests that’s about to happen: There are five teams at plus-30 in Ken Pomeroy’s net ratings (which depict a team’s adjusted offensive efficiency minus its adjusted defensive efficiency) and 11 at plus-26. Both totals are records for the first Monday of March.

Since 2000, these are the seasons that are the closest comparisons in each category on the first Monday of March. The third column shows where that season’s eventual champ ranked on KenPom at that moment.

A common thread through all of those years? The eventual champ was a No. 1 seed.

If we’re to believe that data set, the eventual champ is going to come out of the current KenPom top eight and will need to be a No. 1 seed. Current qualifiers with a realistic shot at a No. 1 seed in that top eight: Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama. (Texas Tech, at No. 7 on KenPom, would be a dark horse for a top seed if the Red Raiders were to win out.)

Reminder: Below my Top 25, I give nuggets on an unspecified number of teams each week. So when a team appears in the table but not in the text below, that’s why. Scroll on for notes on Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan State, Iowa State, Saint Mary’s and Oregon.

No. 1 Auburn

Auburn has allowed the fewest made 3s of any high-major team in the country and held Kentucky to a season-low four 3s in a 94-78 win on Saturday. (Kentucky’s previous low this season was seven.)

Not only do the Tigers limit makes, but also their opponents shoot a low percentage (29.4) of their shots from 3-point range because Auburn refuses to give good looks to the best shooters. Bruce Pearl’s team pulls it off with near-flawless point switching.

The Tigers rarely end up with two defenders on the ball, but even when they do, they can fix it quickly, and their ball pressure makes it tough for the handler to make the right decision.

Auburn continues to perform at record levels on offense, but it’s also one of the best teams in the nation at locking into a scouting report and executing it.

No. 4 Florida

Speaking of switches, Florida is one of the nation’s best teams at attacking a switching defense. The Gators run a lot of similar actions as Kentucky, with a big on the perimeter swinging it toward two guards. The Gators will have the man closest to the ball cut to create an empty action where the big can throw ahead to the remaining guard for a 3, make the same pass and chase it with a ball screen, or dribble into a dribble handoff.

The Gators are most dangerous when Alex Condon is the initiator because he’s their best passer. A fourth option that works well against a switching defense is for that single guard left to also cut to the basket. Condon found Will Richard twice on that option with two absolute dimes:

Condon, who recently missed three games with an ankle injury, put on a passing display in Saturday’s 89-70 victory over Texas A&M. His absence coincided with the return of fellow center Micah Handlogten, and Thomas Haugh flourished in the Condon role and has since been playing with more confidence. With Condon, Haugh and Handlogten, Florida has the best trio of passing bigs in the country. And if there is an already elite offense that feels like it could still be ascending in March, it’s Florida’s, which ranks fourth in adjusted efficiency.

No. 5 Tennessee

Against Alabama on Saturday, Tennessee wanted to use its bigs to set screens, either on the ball or off, to take advantage of drop coverage from Alabama’s bigs. Trailing 63-53 with 10 minutes left, the Vols really leaned into that strategy.

From that point until the end of its 79-76 comeback win, Tennessee would attempt 15 shots plus two other actions that drew shooting fouls, and out of those 17 opportunities, 13 were set up by either a big setting a screen or being involved in a dribble handoff. Off the ball, the Vols did a great job of curling the screen to get open midrange jumpers:

On the ball, they also got to their midrange game:

Even Jahmai Mashack’s game-winning 3 was open because Alabama center Clifford Omoruyi was sagging back:

The Vols scored 26 points over their final 18 possessions (1.44 points per possession). Good strategy and even better execution.

No. 7 Michigan State

Michigan State is wearing teams down with its 10-man rotation and elite defense. In the Spartans’ last six wins, they are getting outscored by 24 points in the first half — they’ve trailed at the half in five of those games — and are outscoring their opponents by 84 in the second half.

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No. 10 Iowa State

Back to full strength, Iowa State got an impressive 84-67 win on Saturday against Arizona. The Cyclones have lost some of their early-season shine with their recent struggles, but they still look like one of the best teams in the country when healthy.

To illustrate, let’s break Iowa State’s season down into five segments: before Milan Momcilovic’s injury, during Momcilovic’s absence, back to full strength for four games, then the two games Keshon Gilbert missed (Curtis Jones also missed one of those), then back at full strength again this past weekend. Using Bart Torvik’s sorting tool, here is where the Cyclones ranked during each timespan:

The Cyclones have lost too many games to get to the top line, but you could argue they’re No. 1 seed caliber when head coach T.J. Otzelberger has all of his weapons.

No. 22 Saint Mary’s

Saint Mary’s leads the country in rebounding margin (plus-10.1) and is the only team in double digits in that category. This is a team that can just deflate opponents with its ability to dominate the glass. The Gaels did just that on Saturday against Oregon State, grabbing 20 out of a possible 36 offensive rebounds. They pull it off with a combination of players close to the basket pushing their men under…

And anyone on the perimeter below the free-throw line came flying in and fought for the ball until the very last second:

The Gaels get back 40.1 percent of their misses, third-best in the country, and Saturday’s game was the sixth time this season they have gotten back at least half their misses. That’s the most among teams in the top 10 in offensive rebounding rate, so let’s assume they lead college basketball in that stat. In games when they get back more than a third of their misses, the Gaels are 22-0.

No. 24 Oregon

Nine days ago, Oregon got what could end up being a seed-line win against Wisconsin out of a game in which its minimum win probability was 1 percent, when trailing by 14 with just over six minutes left.

The Ducks swung that game playing through Nate Bittle, who has seen his usage go way up during their five game-winning streak. Bittle was a five-star coming out of high school who has battled injuries throughout his career and didn’t initially live up to the hype, but he’s one of the toughest centers to deal with in the country and is usually very involved in Oregon’s best wins. He is averaging 17.6 points on 12.8 shots per game during the current winning streak.

Most of his post-ups are isos on the block where he can utilize his jump hook or turnaround jumper, but this was a fun post pin play with which Dana Altman burned USC on Saturday:

Dropped out: Mississippi State.

Keeping an eye on: VCU, UC San Diego, Illinois, UConn, UCLA, Drake.

(Photo of Jahmai Mashack: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)

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