Men’s college basketball Top 25: Clutch Iowa State and Cooper Flagg’s record day, reexamined

As true road games increase during conference play, we’re going to start to see losses pile up around college basketball. That was the expectation this weekend, with nine of last week’s top 12 teams in my AP Top 25 ballot on the road. Three (Iowa State, Kentucky and Kansas) were underdogs.

But only one of the top 12 lost, and it was one of the teams at home: Illinois, a 13-point favorite against USC, lost 82-72 on Saturday. The Illini don’t get a mulligan, but they do get a slight pass for playing without star guard Kasparas Jakucionis, who missed his second straight game with a forearm injury.

Illini coach Brad Underwood said on Friday that Jakucionis would be a game-day decision, so hopefully he’s not out long. Auburn star big man Johni Broome sprained his ankle in a tight win at South Carolina on Saturday. He doesn’t need surgery, but Auburn’s run of topping my rankings — up to nine straight weeks now — and its SEC championship hopes could be in jeopardy if Broome misses significant time. Next up for the Tigers are two opponents in this week’s Top 25 — Ole Miss at home and Georgia in Athens, where the Bulldogs have not yet lost.

Reminder: Below my Top 25, I give nuggets on an unspecified number of teams each week. So when a team appears in the table but not in the text below, that’s why. Scroll on for notes on Iowa State, Duke, Alabama, Florida, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan, Memphis, Wisconsin, Georgia and Utah State.

No. 2 Iowa State

Iowa State used flawless execution in special situations on Saturday to escape with an 85-84 win in overtime at Texas Tech. First, there was Tamin Lipsey’s pass to Joshua Jefferson for a layup at the buzzer in regulation. Then in overtime, down one with 8.4 seconds left, Iowa State had the ball on the baseline out of bounds under its own basket.

These special situations are so important in close games. You want to have a play in that spot that you have confidence in but that the defense isn’t expecting. The Cyclones went with an inbounds play where Jefferson inbounded the ball and then ducked in. Curtis Jones threw it right back to him, and he got fouled.

How often had Iowa State run that play to Jefferson?

Once in 68 baseline out-of-bounds (BLOB) plays this season.

Usually, the Cyclones have a guard inbound. Jefferson had not been an inbounder all season outside of the Cyclones’ game at Colorado on Dec. 30 when he inbounded it three times, including the post-up play. It was the same setup, but against the Buffaloes Jefferson ended up getting the ball off a high-low pass.

This was a great call because of the way Texas Tech defends BLOBs. Texas Tech always has the inbounder’s man turn his back to the ball, helping his teammates. So knowing there’d be space between Jefferson and Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams once it was inbounded, Iowa State’s coaches correctly calculated that Jefferson would be able to have the space to duck in. It had already worked once: They did the same thing with Tamin Lipsey earlier in the half.

If Iowa State ends up winning the Big 12 by one game, remember that play. That attention to detail can be the difference between first and second place.

No. 3 Duke

How did Cooper Flagg get 42 against Notre Dame?

Four reasons.

1. Flagg’s jumper. Notre Dame dared him to make jump shots, sagging off him on the perimeter and short-closing when he was open. Flagg came into the game making only 30 percent of his jump shots, per Synergy, and he went 7 of 10 on jumpers against Notre Dame, including burying 4 of 6 3s.

2. Flagg’s passing. Flagg finished with seven assists and opened the game with two in a row by drawing two defenders to the ball, including this short roll on which he found Khaman Maluach for an alley-oop to open the game.

The Irish were wary of bringing a second defender the rest of the game because they knew Flagg would make the right read, and Flagg got to his spots and scored.

3. Switches. Notre Dame started switching all ball screens, and Flagg feasted on the resulting mismatches, using his dribble to get in close and shoot over smaller defenders and often drawing fouls. He made 16 of 17 free throws.

4. Spacing. Notre Dame made it a point to take away Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor. The Irish even started the second half in a triangle-and-two, face-guarding both players. Even in man, the Irish were often face-guarding Knueppel. Jon Scheyer used this knowledge to get Flagg to his spots. Watch how he opens up the left side of the floor here by putting Knueppel in the left corner:

When Flagg knows he doesn’t have to worry about a second defender running in to try to take his dribble, he’s confident he’ll win one-on-one.

Notre Dame did find something that bugged Duke late, using a zone that took the Blue Devils out of their offensive rhythm and helped the Irish trim an 18-point lead to four in the final minute. But in man-to-man, it’s going to be really hard to slow Duke down if Flagg is making jumpers.

No. 4 Alabama

With their 3-point struggles early in the season, the Crimson Tide have leaned hard into their offensive rebounding, and it has gone to another level so far in SEC play. Alabama is getting back 46 percent of its misses through three conference games and had 24 offensive rebounds in a 94-88 win at Texas A&M on Saturday. What’s really scary for the rest of the SEC: The Crimson Tide are starting to make shots, shooting 35.3 from 3 in SEC play.

The goal for Alabama should be shooting 35 percent from 3 and getting back 35 percent of its misses. In Nate Oats’ six seasons at Bama, the Crimson Tide are 36-2 when they reach those two marks, including 24-0 in the last three seasons.

Florida had two dominant defensive performances last week in a 73-43 win over No. 1 Tennessee and a 71-63 win over Arkansas. Both opponents struggled to score on the Gators at the rim, combining to go 16 of 48 (33.3 percent).

Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler excels at throwing lobs to his bigs, and Florida’s bigs took those away with their help on and off the ball. The Gators were excellent at tagging the rollers early. Watch how Thomas Haugh (No. 10) meets Tennessee’s Felix Okpara at the top of the charge circle when he rolls:

The Vols actually did a great job here with their cutters once the Gators were rotating. Florida’s bigs basically end up playing a zone at the basket, and they’re so big and disciplined in their vertical contests that it’s hard to score if one or two of them are shielding the basket.

What I also loved about the Gators was their ability to scramble and never give up. Even when it looks like you have them beat, as the Vols did in the play below with this empty-side pick-and-roll, their bigs are fast enough to make the windows close quickly. This is awesome awareness and hustle from Haugh to come from the weak side.

Zeigler, who ranks fifth nationally averaging 7.6 assists per game, had just one assist and three turnovers last Tuesday. The offense wasn’t as good as it usually is for the Gators in these two wins, but they won with their effort, a terrific response after giving up 106 to Kentucky.

GO DEEPER

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No. 9 Kansas

Since losing to West Virginia in its Big 12 opener, Kansas has won three straight and held those three opponents to 69.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s the best defensive efficiency over a three-game stretch in conference play for any team Bill Self has coached at Kansas. One reason for the defensive dominance has been the insertion of transfer guard Shakeel Moore into the lineup. With Moore on the floor in Big 12 games, Kansas is holding opponents to 0.635 points per possession, according to CBB Analytics, and is plus-71 in his 71 minutes on the floor.

No. 16 Purdue

Purdue is 4-0 since coach Matt Painter inserted Caleb Furst and CJ Cox into the starting lineup, and the Boilermakers have been the third-best team in college hoops over that stretch, according to Bart Torvik. The new starting lineup is plus-29 in 40 minutes on the floor together this season, per CBB Analytics. One perk of going bigger has been point guard Braden Smith upping his efficiency in pick-and-roll situations. If that continues, I’ll save those numbers and a breakdown for down the road.

It took a few games for Michigan center Vladislav Goldin to get rolling, but he’s been playing at an All-America level lately. Goldin scored 55 points in two wins this past week and has scored in double figures in 10 straight, averaging 20.1 points during that stretch on 74.3 percent shooting. He has nearly doubled his usage since the first six games when he averaged only 7.7 points on 53.1 percent shooting.

One reason big reason why: Goldin’s chemistry with fellow 7-footer Danny Wolf, who is the best Wolverine at feeding the big fella.

Memphis has had a tendency to play close games against non-top-100 teams this season. In five games against those opponents, Memphis has won by single-digits three times. That’s relevant because while Memphis has a great resume, its predictive metrics still are lagging behind. The Tigers are just No. 33 at KenPom.com, and they need to go Houston Mode in the AAC to help that number. With 15 conference games left, they have only one team ranked in the top 100 at KenPom (Florida Atlantic) left on the schedule.

The Badgers are on pace to crush the NCAA record for free-throw percentage. They’re making 85.1 percent at the line. Harvard’s 1982-83 team holds the record at 82.2 percent. The Badgers have some room for error: They would have to miss their next 12 free throws to be even with Harvard’s record percentage.

Georgia is 14-2, and its only two losses are to teams ranked in my Top 25 and the current KenPom top 25. The only other teams undefeated against non-top-25 teams at KenPom: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and Wisconsin. That’s good company. The Bulldogs will have a great shot at making their first NCAA Tournament since 2015 if they can continue to win those games. They only have seven left.

These are the five best teams in the Mountain West over the last five seasons.

Four of those teams have not had a coaching change during that time. Then there’s Utah State. The Aggies are on their fourth coach in five seasons. There’s not another program that has as many coaches essentially up-transfer over the last five years, and the program just keeps nailing its coaching hires. Jerrod Calhoun, in his first year, has Utah State off to a 16-1 start and is tied with New Mexico atop the Mountain West at 6-0.

Dropped out: Oklahoma, UCLA, Pittsburgh, West Virginia.

Keeping an eye on: Arizona, Baylor, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Louisville.

(Photo: John E. Moore III / Getty Images)

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