Mississippi State vs Auburn Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

Auburn welcomes Mississippi State to town in a ranked SEC matchup.

Mississippi State comes into this one off a home loss to Kentucky. Before that loss, the Bulldogs had been one of the hottest teams in the country, with eight straight wins. Speaking of eight straight, that’s what Auburn has done after its victory against South Carolina last time out.

My Mississippi State vs. Auburn predictions expect the Tigers to keep it rolling tonight. Read more in my college basketball picks below.

Mississippi State vs Auburn prediction

My best bet
Denver Jones Over 2.5 threes (+155 at bet365)

My analysis
The primary story in this game is no Johni Broome for the Auburn Tigers. They avoided disaster when it was discovered the Wooden Award contender had suffered just a sprain and no ligament damage, but he will still miss this game. With that at the forefront, I was first drawn to the prop market, and we’ve found a play with some great value.

Books are either slow or have difficulty adjusting to props that aren’t point totals when it comes to college basketball injuries. Such is the case here, and we’re taking Denver Jones Over 2.5 threes at a great +155 price. I made this closer to +100, which is nice for a senior who sees the most significant usage jump of all Tigers without Broome on the floor.

Without Broome on the floor this season, Jones has seen a usage rate bump of over 6%, the largest on the team. Naturally, some negative stats like turnover rate go up as well, but are they significant to us? He’s been a better 3-point shooter with an eFG of 55% compared to 47%. There are a few contributing factors, but there’s more spacing around Auburn without Broome on the floor. That’s a feather in our cap before we even get to the matchup.

That matchup is a good one. Most of the Bulldogs’ defensive efforts this season have been defending dribble jumpers, which is basically when a player shoots a jumper off of either isolation or a screen. Jones figures to have the highest volume of these types of plays. Why? Because even with a healthy Broome, he’s led Auburn in shots off isolation and shots off a screen at 4.8 per game.

His volume rises significantly without Broome on the floor, and it’s in the places the Bulldogs have struggled to defend. You think the college basketball odds would follow that with pricing, but they haven’t.

Mississippi State vs Auburn same-game parlay

Denver Jones Over 2.5 threes

Under 150.5

The value here is in the non-correlation. The market has steamed this Under down, and I’m in agreement. While I think Jones can thrive without Broome on the floor, there’s going to be some general dysfunction without him.

You don’t lose a player who made such a statistical impact on the offensive side and not feel it. I don’t think the market has adjusted enough.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi State vs Auburn odds

Mississippi State vs Auburn live odds

Mississippi State vs Auburn opening odds

• Spread: Mississippi State +7.5 | Auburn -7.5
• Moneyline: Mississippi State +250 | Auburn -310
• Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Mississippi State vs Auburn betting trend to know

Auburn has cashed the first-half moneyline in 19 of its last 21 games at home (+16.20 units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Auburn.

How to watch Mississippi State vs Auburn

Mississippi State vs Auburn key injuries

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