The pressure is on the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State was on a nice eight-game winning streak with a 2-0 SEC start, but it got ripped up by the Kentucky offense and steamrolled by No. 1 Auburn. With road games at Tennessee and South Carolina up next, and Alabama to follow, it’s not desperation time to get a win over the Rebels, but it’s close.
Ole Miss got rocked by the Memphis team Mississippi State beat back in December, and then everything kicked in fast with a 4-0 SEC start including a terrific 74-64 win at Alabama. Win this, and with Texas A&M, at Missouri, and Texas to follow before hosting Auburn and Kentucky, there’s a chance to go on a big run.
Date: Saturday January 18, 2025
Game Time: 6:00 pm ET
How To Watch: ESPN2
Venue: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Teams: Mississippi State (13-2), Ole Miss (15-2)
Fiu Bluesky
Prediction Record So Far
Straight Up 3-1, ATS 3-1
Point Total 4-0
Why Ole Miss Will Win
The Rebels bring the defense.
It’s not that they’re all that bad offensively – they’ll step it up when they need to – but they win by taking the ball away, dominating the turnover margin, and always attacking. Only Tennessee is better overall this year defensively, and they’re third in the nation when it comes to winning the turnover battle.
Basically, the Rebels play like Mississippi State would like to.
Ole Miss has clamped down hard, only allowing more than 70 points once since the end of November. A takeaway machine, it’s 11-0 when coming up with 14 or more. Mississippi State doesn’t have a huge problem making mistakes, but it stumbled all over itself at Auburn with 16 turnovers to go along with a horrendous shooting night.
Ole Miss isn’t the team to go against if you’re trying to get over a bad offensive game. But …
Why Mississippi State Will Win
Mississippi State’s performance against Auburn was an aberration.
That was the newly-No. 1 Auburn team that took things up a few notches having to overcome the absence of star Johni Broome. It was a bad night, but it’s over. The Bulldogs don’t usually have a problem turning the ball over or making the basic mistakes like they did against the Tigers.
You want to grind this down and play a defensive battle, Ole Miss? Fine. Mississippi State’s only three losses this season came to teams that went off offensively. Auburn is Auburn, Kentucky was connecting on everything, and Butler couldn’t miss from three.
All three losses came when the Bulldogs allowed 87 points or more. Ole Miss has only scored that many three times, and it hasn’t happened since November against BYU, and before that Oral Roberts and Long Island.
It’s not that Ole Miss doesn’t score, or can’t, but it doesn’t prefer to get on the move, it’s not an elite shooting team, and the lack of size is a problem on the boards. And …
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Who Will Win?
It really might come down to which team forces the other to screw up more.
If Ole Miss could keep Alabama in check, it can hold down anyone. But Mississippi State will be better suited to gearing down and getting into a half-court game if needed. It’ll be better on the boards, a bit better at coming up with a few mini runs to stay just enough ahead in the second half to not have to press.
Expect a different looking Mississippi State team than the one that left Auburn.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: Mississippi State 77, Ole Miss 71
Line: Mississippi State -6.5, o/u: 146.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
