This week’s mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal’s recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.
RJ asks:
What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?
Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors. As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury. He didn’t hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.
Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward. He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR. His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.
Statcast’s Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he’s not great at lateral movement. The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week). I don’t get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won’t limit his earning power much.
Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result. He’s posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops. He’s on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball. In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season. Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that’s actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark. The second-phase breakout seems real.
The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft. Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years. That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.
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