The 2025 MLB season begins Thursday, March 27th and Vaughn Dalzell has got you covered with his favorite future props for MVP and CY Young, plus home run leader and a play on the Dodgers win total!
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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American League MVP: Bobby Witt (+450)
Bobby Witt finished runner-up for AL MVP last season without a first-place vote as Aaron Judge ran away with the award. Witt hit 32 homers, a .332 batting average, 109 RBIs, 31 stolen bases, and a 9.4 WAR (second behind Judge overall and offensively).
Unlike Elly De La Cruz who I like for NL MVP, Witt doesn’t have a strikeout problem. Witt is disciplined at the plate and dropped his K% in each of the first three seasons from 21% to 15%, along with upping his walk ratio and basically every other statistical category as he continues to develop.
The 24-year-old is either the favorite or second behind Aaron Judge at most sportsbooks to win MVP and I like his chances. Witt is projected to be a top-three finisher to lead the MLB in hits and is projected as the favorite at some markets while being predicted to finish top five in RBIs, stolen bases and runs scored.
Witt had his second 30-homer season last year and if he had his first 50-bag season with another 30-homer season and a .330 or better batting average, it’ll be hard to ignore that progression. With Juan Soto out of the picture in New York, Aaron Judge could see a decline in his numbers giving Witt an early edge in the market.
Pick: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (1u)
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American League Cy Young: Garrett Crochet (+450)
Garrett Crochet was one of the only bright spots in 2024 for the Chicago White Sox and his arrival in Boston is welcomed with wide arms.
Crochet posted 209 strikeouts and 33 walks over 146 innings of work for a 3.58 ERA. He finished 14th in the MLB for WAR (4.9), which was higher than Logan Webb (3.7), Aaron Nola (3.6), and Corbin Burnes (3.4) as examples.
The 25-year-old lefty recorded a 3.58 ERA last season over 32 starts (6 wins, 12 losses) after a 3.55 ERA in 2024 over 13 games and zero starts. His 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is as impressive as it comes, but with Boston, Crochet will be able to pitch deeper into games and have the run support, unlike Chicago.
Crochet only went into the fifth inning or later 15 out of 32 times last season and went four innings (12 outs) or fewer in the last 15 games or from July on. With a fresh start and no leash in Boston, I like the value on Crochet to win the AL CY Young.
Pick: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (1u)
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National League MVP: Elly De La Cruz (+2000)
At 22 years old, Elly De La Cruz had a monster season finishing third in NL WAR (6.4), leading the league in stolen bases (67), and cementing himself as the fastest man in baseball.
As one of the most entertaining and upcoming stars in the game, De La Cruz showed promise in his first full season. The shortstop hit .259, knocked in 76 RBIs, scored 105 runs, and destroyed 25 balls for a homer last season over 618 at-bats and 160 games (388 at-bats over 98 games in 2023).
The biggest knock on De La Cruz is his strikeout rate which was 8th percentile last year and a 31%-clip. He’s stated being selective at the plate is one of his goals for 2025 and if he improves there, the sky is the limit for the 23-year-old. I like De La Cruz to win MVP at +2000 odds and to lead the league in stolen bases again at -120.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (1u), Elly De La Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (1u)
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Los Angeles Dodgers to break MLB record and win 117+ games (+650)
Last season, the Dodgers went under their win total with 98 victories but there is a lot to unpack why they did not reach 100 wins.
The year started with Shohei Ohtani and the gambling allegations around his interpreter, then you had a pile-up of injuries to key players and primarily the pitching, Mookie Betts missing two months, and Freddie Freeman dealing with off-the-field health issues with his son. This year, it seems like a more focused and dedicated group. The downfall of the early season so far is Betts dealing with a sickness that has caused him to lose weight, but that should not be a long-term issue for him.
The pitching staff is upgraded this year with Ohtani taking the mound in addition to hitting, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is back along with Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, plus the Dodgers welcome in rookie Roki Sasaki and free agent signee Blake Snell for the solid five-to-six-man group.
This could be one of the best baseball teams of my lifetime, so for +650 odds, I will back the Dodgers to break the MLB’s win record.
Pick: Dodgers to win an MLB Record 117-plus games (1u)
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Home Run Leader: Juan Soto (+2800), Yordan Alvarez (+2000)
One of the most fun bets of the season is the home run leader market. While I was on Shohei Ohtani (+480) last year and lost to Aaron Judge (+270), I am going to avoid both of those guys and roll with Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez.
Soto left the Yankees for the Mets and a move like that needs to be backed up by a big year. One of the main reasons why I like Soto and Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers this year is they appear to be entering their primes. Soto posted a career-high barrel rate (19.7%) last year and 41 homers, which surpassed his previous high of 35 homers the season before. If Soto sets a new career-high as a Met, he should be in contention for the home run leader and MVP. I’d rather take the value on the homerun leader versus MVP for Soto.
For Alvarez, at age 27, we could be in for his best season yet. Alvarez has posted 33, 37, 31, and 35 homers over the last four seasons as we await that first 40-homer year. Alvarez did play a career-high 147 games last season for Houston and his second-best batting average (.308) since his rookie season (.313) and fewest strikeouts (95 over 147 games) with his best barrel percentage (14.%). Over the next three seasons, Alvarez could very well lead the MLB in homers, or RBIs, so I say get involved to some degree now rather than later.
Pick: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (0.5u), Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (0.5u)
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