MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, March 29.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium gets a bad rap as a bandbox due to the short porch in right field, but outside of that section, it plays fairly pitcher-friendly. Brewers starter Nestor Cortes knows all about that, having spent the past four seasons with the Yankees. He has a lifetime 3.21 ERA at Yankee Stadium, allowing just 1.2 home runs per nine innings. On the other side, Max Fried makes his first career start for New York, having posted a 3.25 ERA or better with 0.8 home runs per nine innings or fewer allowed in each of the past five seasons.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.6)
2:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Both offenses were among the worst in baseball last season. The White Sox averaged just 3.13 runs per game—the lowest in the league, with no other team scoring fewer than 3.73 runs per game. The Angels weren’t much better, ranking third-worst with 3.93 runs per game. Jose Soriano gets the start for Los Angeles after a strong 2024 season in which he allowed just 0.6 home runs per nine innings, posting a 3.42 ERA and 3.80 FIP. Jonathan Cannon, meanwhile, finished his rookie season with a solid 4.15 ERA from June onward.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
2:15 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Erick Fedde returned from the KBO in 2024 as a different pitcher, registering a 3.32 ERA with just 2.6 walks per nine innings after previously issuing at least 3.2 walks per nine in each of his first six MLB seasons. Twins starter Joe Ryan, however, has struggled on the road, posting a career 4.14 ERA away from home while allowing over 1.6 home runs per nine innings. The Twins’ bullpen, which finished 19th in ERA last season, backs him up. Meanwhile, the Cardinals return much of their relief corps from last season, when they ranked seventh in bullpen ERA.
Pick: Cardinals +110 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: -114)
4:05 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Jake Irvin takes the mound for Washington as he looks to continue his improvement. After issuing four walks per nine innings as a rookie in 2023, he cut that number to 2.5 in 2024. On the other side, Jesús Luzardo makes his debut for the Phillies, coming off a disappointing 2024 season in which he made only 12 starts. However, he gets a favorable matchup against a Nationals lineup that hit the fewest home runs in the National League last season.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
4:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Valente Bellozo showed promise in his 13 starts for the Marlins last season, posting a 3.67 ERA with just 2.8 walks per nine innings. However, his 5.73 FIP and two home runs allowed per nine innings are concerns. Fortunately, he faces a Pirates lineup that ranked third-worst in the NL in both runs and home runs last season. The Marlins’ offense wasn’t much better, ranking bottom three in those same categories, but they’ll have opportunities against Bailey Falter, who posted a 4.43 ERA with just 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings last season. Falter is backed by a bullpen that finished bottom five in ERA in 2024.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Guardians starter Gavin Williams was unlucky last season, posting a 4.86 ERA despite a much better 3.67 FIP. However, his lack of command hurt him, as he issued 3.8 walks per nine innings. Royals starter Seth Lugo doesn’t rack up as many strikeouts as Williams but has better control, issuing just 2.1 walks per nine last season. Williams averaged just 4.75 innings per start, while Lugo pitched over 6.26 innings per start and had a career year in 2024, posting a 3.00 ERA backed by a 3.25 FIP.
Pick: Royals -118 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: -158)
7:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Tyler Mahle has made just eight starts over the past two seasons due to injury, but when healthy, he’s shown deceptive stuff with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Red Sox lineup currently missing Masataka Yoshida due to injury. On the other side, Walker Buehler had a forgettable regular season but shined in the postseason. With a full season under his belt, he should return closer to the dominant form he showed in 2022 and earlier.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
After a rough start to the 2024 season, Spencer Arrighetti finished strong, posting a 3.08 ERA with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings over his final 14 appearances. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning makes his Mets debut after a rough 2024 season with the Angels, where he posted a career-low 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 5.19 ERA while allowing 1.6 home runs per nine. He now faces an Astros lineup that has ranked in the top three in fewest strikeouts per at-bat every season since 2017.
Pick: Astros -122 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: -151)
8:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Since joining the Cubs, Shota Imanaga has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, registering a 2.84 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and just 1.6 walks per nine innings. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has been inconsistent in his two MLB seasons. His 3.61 FIP in 2024 suggests he deserved better than his 4.71 ERA, but his struggles at home are concerning—he has a career 5.56 ERA in Arizona. He’s also backed by a bullpen that ranked 25th in both FIP and ERA last season.
Pick: Cubs +106 (Greg’s Handicapped Moneyline: -124)
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