The daily calendar shows April 23, which means we haven’t even yet seen one full month of baseball and more than five months remain. Still, people love to argue about the biggest awards and there’s also an opportunity to jump in early on the odds for the gamblers among us.
In that spirit, let’s take a look at the MVP odds (via Caesars) in each league and discuss how things have unfolded so far in addition to where they might go.
American League
The top five favorites:
- Aaron Judge, Yankees, -300
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals, +600
- Gunnar Henderson, Orioles, +2500
- Mike Trout, Angels, +3000
- Corey Seager, Rangers, +3000
First off, a hearty “welcome back!” goes out to Mr. Trout. I absolutely, firmly believe he’s won his last MVP, but he hasn’t gotten any votes since 2022 and it’s nice to see him healthy and hitting tanks.
Look, the biggest takeaway right now is that Judge is, to this point, lapping the field. The Yankees are in first place despite losing Juan Soto to free agency and Gerrit Cole to injury while Judge leads the league in hits, runs, RBI, average (.411!), OBP, slugging, OPS, OPS+, total bases and WAR. Is that enough?
We do know of Judge’s extensive injury history, though, given that he played in only 106 games in 2023 while 2018-20 seasons were all affected by injury. This is to say that betting Judge at -300 seems counter-productive and leaves an opening to grab someone else, even if it feels like it’s already Judge’s award to lose.
Witt has been good but not MVP level so far. It is still way early and he’s good enough to go bonkers the rest of the way. He wouldn’t be a terrible bet.
Henderson hasn’t been good enough yet but is immensely talented and capable of a gangbusters five months to finish. Those odds are intriguing, too.
Seager is talented enough, but I just don’t trust him to stay healthy for a full season. Sure, he finished second in 2023 despite only 119 games played, but I’m just not a buyer here. As if right on cue, he left Tuesday’s game early. That just screams “stay away” to me.
Can we look elsewhere?
Dark horses of note
José Ramírez remains woefully underrated and he’s sitting at +4500 here. Assuming the Guardians hang around in contention all season, he’s a good bet to finish in the top five for the sixth time. It’s tough to see him winning, but he has the ability and those odds are very enticing. If the Guardians — who are now in first place — win the division, the chances improve, too.
Spencer Torkelson looks like he’s officially arrived as a true middle-of-the-order menace while the Tigers have been around first all year. He’s at +6500. I can’t see him winning MVP this season at all, but a sprinkle here could be justified at this number.
The Red Sox remain a decent prediction to win the AL East and are only a half-game back. If they do win it, Alex Bregman at +8000 seems like a good number. He’s hitting .302/.376/.521 with nine doubles and 19 RBI and is playing great defense at third.
Best value pick: José Ramírez, Guardians, +4500
In all likelihood, Judge wins this thing again or maybe Witt makes a run. I simply don’t think you can overlook Ramírez and that number is just too big for how good his chances should be.
National League
The top five favorites:
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers, +200
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres, +450
- Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, +450
- Kyle Tucker, Cubs, +500
- Pete Alonso, Mets, +1100
While Ohtani has been good so far, he hasn’t been exceptional or even necessarily that great. He’s hitting .264/.366/.506, though the six homers and five steals show the power-speed combo has still been there. Still, he’s fourth on his own team in WAR and hasn’t pitched yet.
If voting was held right now, he wouldn’t finish in the top five or even top 10. Tatis, Carroll, Tucker and Alonso are off to monster starts to the season. Tatis would be the winner and he’s flashing the kinds of skills we imagined he would on an annual basis back when he was 20. He has fully arrived as a five-tool super-duper star, hitting .344/.417/.644 (193 OPS+) with eight homers, 17 RBI, seven steals and 23 runs. He plays outstanding defense in right field and leads the majors with 2.1 WAR.
Carroll is bouncing back in a big way after a down season in 2024, which was driven by a horrible first half. He’s also picking up the slack with Ketel Marte hurt.
Tucker has a good narrative behind him as a newcomer to the Cubs, who sit in first place despite having the toughest schedule in baseball by a big margin. He’s changed the entire complexion of the lineup and leads the league in hits, runs and RBI.
Alonso is an RBI machine for the first-place Mets — tied with Tucker for the most in the majors — picking up the slack for some other big names who got off to slow-ish starts.
Again, Tatis would be the winner right now, but Carroll and Tucker are hot on his heels. That is the current top three with Tatis at the top and the other two neck-and-neck for second.
Dark horses of note
Elly De La Cruz isn’t (yet) hitting for a high batting average, but he’s so good at everything else that he’s worth watching. He sits here at +1600.
Juan Soto isn’t hitting for average (.233). He hasn’t hit home runs at the pace we’ve seen him hit before, namely last season. And he’s still productive with a 117 OPS+ and 0.7 WAR. He’s at +2000.
Sticking with the Mets, Francisco Lindor — last season’s NL MVP runner-up — started slow but has really picked things up in the past two weeks. He’s still, somehow, only sitting at +2500 here in the odds. He’s hitting .301/.352/.505 (142 OPS+) with four doubles, five homers, 14 RBI, 17 runs, two steals and 0.8 WAR for a first-place team.
Bryce Harper is having yet another Bryce Harper season while the Phillies sit firmly in contention. He’s won two MVPs before, most recently in 2021, and yet he’s at +3500 here. There’s decent value to be had.
I don’t think they’ll win the award, but +10000 is a number that seems far too large given the talent possessed by Matt Olson, Ketel Marte and Manny Machado. If you hear one of these guys calling your name, it can’t hurt to make a low-risk play.
Best value pick: Ohtani
Yeah, he’s the favorite, but he’s also plus money. C’mon. Once Ohtani starts pitching, he very likely just needs to avoid injury in order to win the award. All he has to do is get close, offensively, to any of the other contenders here and the 80-100 innings on the mound will mean the added pitching value pushes him over the top. He plays for the Dodgers, who are likely to end up with the best record, and that’ll help.
As long as he’s plus money, it’s an easy play. I don’t think voter fatigue is going to set in just yet with Ohtani, who is only in his second NL season and it’ll be his first NL season with pitching.
If you think this feels too easy, I can go elsewhere, though …
Non-Ohtani value pick: Juan Soto, Mets, +2000/Francisco Lindor, Mets, +2500
These guys sitting with worse odds than Alonso is laughable. You could argue Alonso has been more valuable to this point, but the odds are for the full season MVP award and there’s very little, if any, chance that Alonso finishes higher than either in MVP voting this season.
Both Soto and Lindor are capable of outright winning the MVP award. They sit behind Tatis, Tucker and Carroll, at present, and might need an Ohtani injury, but they are still worth a strong look with these odds.
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