The 2025 NBA Playoffs are set to get underway Saturday, April 19, with four games, as the 3-6 and 4-5 series in both conferences get going. Here’s a look at each series in the first round, along with odds, picks and predictions for how things will play out.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Thunder are once again the No. 1 seed in the West, improving by 11 wins from their 2023-24 campaign. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely going to win his first MVP award, while Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams continue to take steps forward as secondary contributors. Oklahoma City made two key additions in the offseason, signing Isaiah Hartenstein to reinforce the interior while trading for Alex Caruso to bolster its perimeter defense. Both additions have been excellent for arguably the deepest team in the league. The Thunder have home-court advantage throughout the postseason and are +165 favorites to win the NBA title at DraftKings. After being bounced in the second round last season, Oklahoma City seems primed for a deep playoff run.
The Grizzlies do present a sneakily challenging matchup for the Thunder, even if Oklahoma City did win all four matchups during the regular season. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. remain one of the best young cores in the league, and Memphis will be motivated to show what it can do after a late coaching switch. Memphis finished the season sixth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating, so there are underlying metrics to suggest this team is closer to being a contender than a No. 8 seed. The odds might show Oklahoma City as a heavy favorite, though this could be one of those short series where every result is close.
No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
Houston barely missed the play-in tournament last year, failing to catch up to Golden State for the No. 10 spot. The Rockets made good on their late surge this season, securing the No. 2 seed behind big leaps from Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Houston was sixth in scoring defense and fifth in defensive rating during the regular season, and it’ll need that defensive prowess against an opponent it couldn’t seem to figure out until this year. The Warriors had won 15 straight matchups against the Rockets in regular season meetings prior to the quarterfinal round in the 2024 NBA Cup. Houston went 2-3 against Golden State this season, but only two meetings occurred after the Warriors dealt for Jimmy Butler. Since acquiring Butler, Golden State had the best defensive rating in the league and was eighth in offensive rating. Stephen Curry will grab the headlines, but Butler has given this Warriors team life as a contender. Golden State is a -200 favorite to win the series at DraftKings, with Houston priced as a +165 underdog. The most likely result, according to oddsmakers, is a 4-2 series win for Golden State, priced at +280.
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
This matchup features two of the best teams in the league down the stretch. The Lakers made the blockbuster deal of the season, landing Luka Doncic at the trade deadline from the Mavericks. They went 19-13 since Doncic made his first appearance as a Laker, securing the No. 3 seed a few days before the regular season concluded. The Timberwolves also won 19 games in that span, boosted by the league’s sixth-best offensive rating thanks to an Anthony Edwards scoring explosion. Edwards averaged 28.4 points per game in the first eight games of March, all Timberwolves wins. The team closed the regular season winning eight of its last nine, securing the final automatic playoff spot. These teams split their four meetings in the regular season, but the Lakers won the lone meeting since acquiring Doncic. Los Angeles is a -195 favorite to win the series, with the most likely result being Lakers 4-3 at +340. Minnesota is a +160 underdog to advance.
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
The 2023 champions thought they were going to have a chance to defend their title when they went up 20 points on the Timberwolves in Game 7 in last year’s second round. Minnesota stormed back and bounced Denver on its home floor, sending the franchise back to the drawing board. The Nuggets looked like true contenders during a nine-game winning streak late in the year, but they had a four-game losing streak just before the end of the regular season. It was after this extended losing run that Denver decided to fire head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth. Four of the team’s five starters from the 2023 title team remain, but now there are questions about the state of the locker room and organization. The Clippers, on the other hand, look refreshed with the return of Kawhi Leonard and the brilliance of James Harden. Los Angeles is arguably the hottest team entering the playoffs, winning 15 of its last 17 games. Its 124-119 win in overtime over Golden State on the final day of the regular season helped it clinch the No. 5 seed. Leonard averaged 26.7 points per game in April on 53/50/85 shooting splits, while Harden posted 25.9 points and 10.1 assists per game over the final seven games. The oddsmakers have both teams priced at -110 to win the series. The two most likely results are Clippers 4-2 (+340) and Nuggets 4-3 (+350).
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
The Cavaliers exploded out of the gate with 15 straight wins and never really looked back. After a season where it felt like everyone plateaued and an offseason with questions about how the roster fits, Cleveland finally clicked in 2024-25. Darius Garland looked like his 2022-23 self, while Evan Mobley posted a career-high 18.5 points per game. The Cavaliers acquired De’Andre Hunter at the deadline to further bolster their rotation, sporting the league’s third-best offensive rating and fifth-best net rating since landing the 3-and-D wing.
The Heat became the first team ever to advance out of the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. Miami remains the only franchise to ever make the NBA Finals from the play-in, so there’s belief among this group it can make a deep run. Unfortunately, Jimmy Butler is no longer with the squad, and the Heat have to take on a Cavaliers squad they lost to twice in three meetings during the regular season. This series will likely be more about how Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo project as cornerstones of the roster rather than attempting to pull off yet another postseason upset.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
The defending champions are priced slightly below Oklahoma City to win the 2025 title at +190, but they are -150 favorites to advance out of the Eastern Conference. The Celtics were second in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating and second in net rating to grab the third-best record in the league. Jayson Tatum is a lock to make an All-NBA team, while reigning Finals MVP Jaylen Brown remains one of the most lethal scorers in the postseason. Boston’s bench has emerged as well this season, with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet all delivering valuable rotation minutes. Unfortunately for the Celtics, the Magic are probably the best No. 7 seed they could’ve gotten. Orlando pushed Cleveland to seven games in the first round a year ago and is mostly healthy after being decimated by injuries during the season. The Magic had the league’s second-best defensive rating thanks to their combination of length and versatility. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are one of the best young cores in the game, and they could cause some problems for Boston. At the moment, the Celtics are heavy favorites to advance at -5000, and the most likely outcome is a Celtics sweep at +105.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
The Knicks were considered a contender after they made two big trades, landing Mikal Bridges in July before making the major swing for Karl-Anthony Towns two weeks before the regular season. However, New York hasn’t been able to compete with the best teams in the East, going 0-8 against the Cavaliers and Celtics. Jalen Brunson remains a star, but the team hasn’t been able to find an additional gear when facing true contenders. The Pistons have finally broken through after a lengthy rebuild, thanks to the emergence of Cade Cunningham. The guard is a top Most Improved Player contender after averaging 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game this season. Detroit won three of the four meetings in the regular season between these two teams, but New York is the -400 favorite to advance to the second round.
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
These teams met in the first round last season, with the Pacers defeating an injury-riddled Bucks team in six games. Milwaukee is still without Damian Lillard, but former league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing he could carry this roster on a deep playoff run. Antetokounmpo averaged 31.8 points, 12.0 rebounds and 11.8 assists per game over his last six games, all wins for Milwaukee. The Bucks finished with eight straight wins, ending the year at 48-34 after a 2-8 start. The Pacers didn’t tweak much regarding their roster, relying on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to continue elevating the group around them. Haliburton continued to orchestrate the offense effectively, averaging 9.2 assists per game, while Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game behind a career season from deep when factoring in shooting volume. Even though the Bucks won three of the four regular-season meetings, the Pacers are -195 favorites to advance. The most likely series result is Pacers 4-3 (+340).
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