As teams start to get focused and make a push during the home stretch of the NBA season, it’s becoming clearer where the line is for genuine contenders and who are pretenders. And also, it’s clear who is tanking at this point.
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1. Boston Celtics (42-16, Last Week No. 2). If the Celtics are going to repeat as champions it will have to start with their defense — and of late they are back to playing at a championship level on that end of the floor (top 10 in the league over their last 10 games). On offense, the ball is moving again and more field goals are coming via assist. This is like a midterm week for Boston with some big tests ahead: Its showdown against Cleveland on Friday matters more to the Cavaliers’ psyche than the Celtics, but things don’t get easier for Boston after that when Nikola Jokic and Denver come to town on Sunday.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-10, LW 3). Cleveland is going be the No. 1 seed in the East (it has a six-game lead with 24 to play), has a player who will get MVP votes (Donovan Mitchell could finish fifth in the voting), and another who might win Defensive Player of the Year (Even Mobley is a serious contender). Despite all that, there are plenty of doubters, and if the Cavs want to convince people it can come out of the East — including convincing themselves on some level — a win against Boston on Friday night goes a long way. The Cavaliers come in red hot, having gone 9-1 in their last 10 with a +18.7 net rating.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (46-11, LW 1). It’s only happened for 77 minutes across five games, but when Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein share the court the Thunder have a +17.5 net rating. As long as Holmgren remains comfortable at the four and spaces the floor, this is a dangerous lineup the Thunder are just starting to explore. Neither Holmgren nor Hartenstein were on the court when the Thunder blew a 24-point lead to the Timberwolves last weekend, but that loss gave credence to the doubts some around the league have about OKC, that this is a team built for the regular season but not the playoffs — when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is double-teamed, who steps up?
SECOND TIER CONTENDERS
4. Los Angeles Lakers (35-21, LW 8). Luka Doncic has energized the Lakers offense, but what has this team beating Denver last week and leaping up to fourth in these rankings is the defense — in the last 15 games, the Lakers have the best defense in the league (107.3 net rating). Having Doncic (and Austin Reaves) take on more of the offensive playmaking has LeBron spending more of his energy on the defensive end, helping compensate for the lack of a traditional rim-protecting center. Coach J.J. Redick said after the emotional win over Dallas that LeBron has played at an All-Defensive team level of late, and he’s not wrong.
5. Denver Nuggets (38-20, LW 4). Nuggets fans can point to the nine straight wins their team had before running into a motivated Lakers squad (and healthy Luka Doncic) last Saturday, but every one of those wins was against a team .500 or below. This week is a better test of how good the Nuggets really are: They already beat a good Pacers team on the road as Nikola Jokic racked up 19 assists, but next up are Milwaukee, Detroit and Boston.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
6. Golden State Warriors (31-27, LW 14). Ever since Jimmy Butler arrived in the Bay Area, the Warriors have had the best defense in the NBA (104.4 defensive rating in the last seven games) — that has mattered more than the offensive load he has taken off Stephen Curry’s shoulders. Butler and Draymond Green are leading a defense that is just getting stops, and with that, the Warriors are a team nobody wants to see in the first round of the playoffs.
7. New York Knicks (37-20, LW 6). Jalen Brunson summed up the feelings of Knicks fans everywhere: “You can’t explain it. I’m at a loss for words, really.” Last week’s losses to Boston and Cleveland by a combined 60 points showed just how massive the gap is between New York and the teams above them in the East standings. A gap bigger than Mitchell Robinson’s coming return can fill. The Knicks’ most significant problem was on clear display: The two players that drive their offense — Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns — are defensive liabilities that teams will target. There is no simple solution there. This fan base had Eastern Conference Finals aspirations — at least — and now it’s difficult to envision them getting past the second round again. The Knicks are a good team, but one with a ceiling.
8. Indiana Pacers (32-24, LW 10). Indiana has found its groove again, going 10-5 in its last 15 games, but the loss to Denver Monday night raised the same question we have been asking of this team for more than a season now: Can it get enough stops to let their offense get out and run, and with that win some playoff games. The Nuggets scored 74 points in the paint, the Pacers have to protect that better or this is going to be another short trip to the postseason.
9. Memphis Grizzlies (38-20, LW 5). It’s tough to jump on the “Memphis should be a second-tier contender” bandwagon after the team went 2-3 on its recent road trip while struggling to slow top offenses at all. The defense is most concerning about this team — it is bottom-10 in the league over the last 15 games, and for a team built on using its defense to get quick buckets in transition, that’s a problem. Good test for the Grizzlies coming up Friday night against the Knicks.
10. Houston Rockets (36-22, LW 7). Jabari Smith Jr. returned after missing 22 games with a fractured hand, and credit Ime Udoka for doing the right thing and keeping Amen Thompson in the starting lineup — because that was working — and bringing Smith off the bench. At least for now. In his last 20 games, Thompson has averaged 16.3 points a game on 52.9% shooting (but he’s not a threat from 3), 9.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.9 steals a game.
11. Milwaukee Bucks (32-25, LW 11). Losing Bobby Portis to suspension until the final week of the season is a serious blow, his energy is a part of what makes this team work. Kyle Kuzma is still trying to find his footing in Milwaukee, averaging 15.3 points a game but shooting 29.3% from beyond the arc and with a true shooting percentage of 51.3, well below the league average. Doc Rivers is giving Kuzma every opportunity — he’s on the court in the clutch — but the Bucks need him to deliver.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (32-27, LW 9). Julius Randle (out since Jan. 30) and Donte DiVincenzo (out since Jan . 15 with turf toe) are close to a return, leaving Chris Finch with a tough choice. Randle is the team’s second-leading scorer and rebounder at 18.9 points and 7.2 rebounds a game, but the starting lineup has looked much better with Naz Reid in his place. For the first game or two coming back from injury it’s easy to tell Randle he has to come off the bench, but is that the long-term plan? If Finch keeps Reid the starter, how will Randle react?
13. Detroit Pistons (32-26, LW 16). My favorite stat of the season: Detroit has won more games this season (32) than they did in the past two seasons combined (31). Detroit isn’t just scraping by getting into the play-in, it has a 3.5-game lead over Orlando for the No. 6 seed (avoiding the play-in altogether) and the Pistons are just one game behind the Pacers and Bucks for the No. 4 seed and hosting a playoff round. The Pistons and Cade Cunningham are the best story in the league this season and J.B. Bickerstaff deserves all the Coach of the Year votes he gets.
14. Los Angeles Clippers (31-26, LW 12). Los Angeles is 0-3 out of the All-Star break in part due to Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell and Ben Simmons all missing time with injuries. Combine that with the surging Timberwolves and Warriors, and suddenly the Clippers’ hold on the No. 6 seed is tenuous at best (the L.A. and Minnesota are tied for 6/7 with a hot Warriors team just half a game back). If the Clippers are going to avoid the play-in, they need to get their defense back in shape — it’s third-best in the league for the season but 15th in the last 10 games.
15. Sacramento Kings (29-28, LW 13). The Kings’ Jekyll and Hyde two games after the All-Star break kind of sums up the season in the California capital. First, the Kings got routed by the Warriors, losing by 24, then turned around and destroyed the Hornets by 42. Sacramento sits 10th in the West and needs wins to hang onto its play-in spot, which will be challenging with 7 of 9 coming up on the road.
16. Orlando Magic (29-31, LW 20). Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs have played in just one game together this season — how different would things have been in Orlando if that trio had largely stayed healthy? The Magic are 4-3 so far in a stretch of 10-of-11 at home, and credit Cole Anthony who has stepped up and played well in this run with Suggs out (quad contusion). With a couple of games at home against the Raptors and one against the Bulls coming up, the Magic could get back to .500 soon (and have a shot at the No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in).
17. Dallas Mavericks (31-28, LW 15). Mavericks fans looking for a silver lining after watching Luka Doncic beating their team while wearing a hated uniform need to take a look at Max Christie. He is thriving in Dallas, a team that needs a second shot creator to take some of the pressure off Kyrie Irving. Since being part of the Luka Doncic trade, Christie is averaging 14.7 points a game and shooting 44.2% on 3-pointers (4.8 attempts a game). That said, he struggled back in Los Angeles going against his former team Tuesday night, scoring 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting and becoming a favorite target of Luka Doncic to attack (Christie tries on defense, but he’s not physical enough to slow a driving Doncic). Dallas has Christie locked up for at least two seasons beyond this one on what looks like a steal of a contract ($16 million over the two years total).
18. Miami Heat (26-30, LW 18). Since the trade deadline, sending out Jimmy Butler and bringing in Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, Miami is 1-6. The Heat will not fall out of the play-in, but they are locked in that mini-tournament and face long-term challenges after this season. Miami has too many picks going out the door to tear it down and rebuild, and it’s not their style anyway, but how can they retool a winning roster around Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro?
PLAY IN HOPEFULS
19. Atlanta Hawks (27-31, LW 19). Trae Young has been putting up numbers in February, averaging 30.3 points and 11.9 assists a game, although it’s concerning that his 3-point percentage has fallen off to 30.9% in the month. With Young leading the way, the Hawks have been a roller coaster of a team in 2025 — lose 8 in a row, win 4-of-5 — but we should get a measure of them in the coming weeks with games against OKC, Memphis, Milwaukee and Indiana (2x).
20. Phoenix Suns (27-31, LW 17). It feels like Mike Budenholzer has moved into the “throw everything against the wall and see what sticks” portion of the season. Bradley Beal is back in the starting lineup (the team is 1-2 since that change). Tuesday night, Bol Bol started at the four, with Royce O’Neal coming off the bench. None of it is working, the Suns are 2-9 in their last 11 games, are 11th in the West and 2.5 games out of the final play-in spot, and have a string of games starting Sunday that could decide their playoff fate: Timberwolves, Clippers, and then a four-game road trip to Denver, Dallas, Memphis and Houston.
21. Chicago Bulls (23-35, LW 22). Chicago has gone 2-7 in its last nine, but it seems increasingly likely it hangs onto the No. 10 seed and make the play-in after beating the hapless 76ers 142-110 Monday night. Brooklyn is hot and is 1.5 games back, but management there isn’t hoping to make a run to the postseason and mess up their draft odds. Matas Buzelis has started the last 7 games and has averaged 12.9 points and 3.4 rebounds a game, the rookie is showing a little promise.
CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG
22. Portland Trail Blazers (25-33, LW 24). The Trail Blazers have gone 6-4 so far in February, with players such as Anfernee Simons, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson and Toumani Camara forming an athletic, ball-moving core. More importantly, Portland has been playing top-10 defense in February and has a +4.2 net rating for the month. There are reasons to be optimistic about the future in the Pacific Northwest.
23. Brooklyn Nets (21-36, LW 25). D’Angelo Russell’s return to Brooklyn has not been the homecoming either side hoped for. While he’s scoring 13.8 points with 5.8 assists a game, he’s shooting just 38.1% overall and 31.8% from 3. He’s struggled even more of late. Despite that — and give a nod to Jordi Fernandez as coach — the Nets are 7-3 in their last 10 and not looking like a tanking team.
24. Toronto Raptors (18-40, LW 26). The Raptors have the fifth-worst record in the NBA, but they also have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA and they have been playing teams tough. They are 2-3 in their last five with wins over the 76ers and Suns, and one of the losses was to the Heat in overtime (the other two losses were Boston and Cleveland). It’s not hard to imagine this team getting on a little winning streak and, in the process, helping out the 76ers and other teams looking to tank.
25. Philadelphia 76ers (20-37, LW 23). Paul George summed it up perfectly: “We’ve shown no sign of a team that will compete and, you know, we just don’t have the habits of a champion or a playoff contending team.” Joel Embiid having his knee looked at by specialists feels like the first step to him being shut down for the season. Good, it’s time for Philly to let go of the rope on this season and focus on the next. That means losing enough games to have a good shot at holding onto their top-six protected pick. George, who has admitted to playing through pain, should be given time to get healthy. Eric Gordon is done for the season following wrist surgery. It’s not hard to see the pattern of what should follow.
26. New Orleans Pelicans (15-43, LW 29). Zion Williamson can still just make your jaw drop: One power dribble, take off from the dots and a two-handed dunk. Insane.
27. San Antonio Spurs (24-32, LW 21). The only thing that really matters in San Antonio: That Gregg Popovich gets healthy, feels like himself, and gets to spend the coming years however and wherever he wishes. On the court, the Spurs are 1-3 since Victor Wembanyama went out for the season with deep vein thrombosis, including two losses to the Pelicans. Without the pick-and-roll threat of Wembanyama on the court, it’s been a lot tougher for De’Aaron Fox to generate consistent offense.
28. Utah Jazz (14-43, LW 27). The goal for the rest of the season is to see what the Jazz have with young players who look like they could be part of the rotation with what comes next. Keyonte George looks like that, he could at least be a second unit shot creator. Both Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski are putting up numbers and looking like they might stick as well.
29. Charlotte Hornets (14-43, LW 28). Charlotte is 1-7 on its current road trip, which ends Thursday in Dallas. The one win: The Mark Williams revenge game, also known as the re-scheduled game against the Lakers (the one postponed because of the wildfires, the veteran Lakers did not look happy to be back a day early from the All-Star break that night). Saturday the Hornets play the Wizards and are oddly 0-3 against Washington this season.
30. Washington Wizards (10-47, LW 30). After a couple of rough seasons, Jordan Poole is having a bounce-back year averaging 21 points and 4.8 assists a game while shooting 37.1% from 3. He’s not going to be easy to trade with two more years an $65.8 million still on is contract after this season, but when he’s playing like this it seems possible.
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